@Tommy G shares his thoughts on every aspect of fantasy football in 2019: Season-long drafts, NFL DFS, and betting!
Seasonal Draft Guide
PLAYERS IN RED ARE GUYS I AM REALLY TARGETING AND AM WILLING TO REACH FOR
My Draft Strategy
- Don’t be afraid to take shots on guys like AB, Lev, Gordon, Gurley etc if these guys fall too far. I know it’s scary to have any of these guys on ur roster, but don’t forget the upside they bring. I will not reach for any of them, but I am hearing in some leagues these guys are falling a full round or two below their ADP. I am 100% fine grabbing all of these guys if they fall too far, even if I don’t love them. Just make sure to handcuff em if you do!
- TE thins out VERY FAST this year….faster than usual! I am going to make sure to get one of the top six tight ends even if I have to reach. I am targeting OJ and Engram, but will reach on Henry immediately if they disappear
- QB is the deepest it has ever been with guys like Brady and Rivers going in THE TEENS in some drafts, therefore, I am not going to be reaching on QB before round 7, will pull on a couple guys like Baker and Goff who I love in 8+ if I LOVE my team at that point, but if I don’t I am content going back to back rounds with guys like Rivers and Brady and playing the matchups.
- RB is stacked at the top 4, they are pretty much interchangeable, but there is a bit of a dead spot in my opinion in the second round Gurley, Mixon, Kerryon, etc are not guys I am going to take over a big time WR, so if I cant get a Big 4 running back, I will try to steal Dalvin late, if I can’t pull that off I will be looking for running backs from round 3 on….I am not a huge fan of the RBs from RB5 (hate DJ) to RB15 outside of Cook, I think they all have warts.
- WR is deep as usual and there is a TON of value across the board. There are a few guys I have to have. I will leave my drafts with at least 2 of these 4: Edelman, Moore, Fuller, Godwin.
I never draft QBs early and this year is an even MORE extreme example than in years past. Those people taking shots on Mahomes in the 3rd and Watson in the 4th are fine, but it’’s just not my style, especially in a year where TOM FUCKIN BRADY is QB20!? A lot of guys pull on a QB in the first 7 rounds and then wait til round 16 to grab a backup that is pretty unreliable, I personally wait on QB1 and will always have 2 QBs in the QB10-17 range. I will come out of almost all my drafts with the combo of Rivers and Goff at QB and I will be ecstatic. Here are my favorite value QBs.
- Rivers rd 10+….Rivers is going between QB14 and QB20 depending on the league, but imo he is the perfect guy to steal in the 10th round. I think in a lot of leagues you can wait and even get him later, but that is a league-by-league assessment since each league is different. The one thing I will tell u is that Rivers is primed for a big volume year. With no Melvin and a weaker team than in years past, LA should be forced to chuck it nonstop. This should lead to yet another 4000 yard 28+ td season, numbers Rivers seems to put up EVERY year. EVERY year Rivers is QB 16 and EVERY year he finishes as a top 5 QB.
- Goff rd 8+….With Gurley’s situation up in the air, I love the upside of Goff this year. Goff threw for 4700 and 32 last year and that was with Gurley being a touch monster and without Kupp for a portion of the year. If this team becomes less reliant on the run, which they should, you could see a top 5 performance from Goff at a 9th round price
- Baker rd 7+….I would CONSIDER Baker in the 7th if i was at the back end of the round, but Baker is the one guy who I would strongly consider in the 8th (even though i like waiting til 10). The weapons he has this year are elite, and if I love my roster after the first 6 rounds, I would consider a late 7th round pull.
- Brady rd 11+….I mean, this is fucking mind boggling to me how Tom Brady is going behind Josh Allen and Kyler Murray in drafts LOL. When u can get a guy whose nickname is “THE GOAT” in the 15th round u cant ignore that. Everyone is so focused on Gronk and his arm strength, but you are talking about a guy who is gonna have Edelman, Gordon, White along with Demaryius and a bunch of good looking rookies there is no reason to think Brady won’t do Brady things. I know they are more run heavy than in years past but Brady in the 15th is robbery.
- Darnold rd 15+….Sam Darnold has taken HUGE steps forward and has a ton of weapons this year that didn’t exist last year. Crowder will be a big get for him for safety, Anderson is a stud, Bell will catch 60 balls if he stays healthy and keeps his head right and Enunwa might be the most underrated WR in all of football. I have ZERO problem with Darnold as my QB2 late. He is going UNDRAFTED in some leagues so you can steal him really late.
- Jimmy G rd 15+….I know he has looked like complete dogshit all camp, but thats why he is going from a guy people were taking in the top 12 QBs to a guy who is going undrafted. The weapons are there: Pettis, Goodwin, Deebo and Kittle are an elite set of weapons to pair with a strong running game. Jimmy had a lot of time off so the rust doesn’t worry me as much. He is a guy I think will hit his stride week 3 and beyond.
COMPLETE AVOIDS (BASED ON ADP)
- Murray….will be hurt and will suck
- Allen….people forget he’s not very good
- Wentz…like him but he’s going WAY too high
Running back is a position that everyone is attacking early (first 5 picks in most drafts are RBs) so I would advise getting one very early and trying to get into that top 4 spot in ur draft. I have been pissing on the zero RB theory for 2 years and have been stacking backs with tremendous success early in drafts and it pains me to see people coming back around away from that fucking stupid zero RB theory bullshit. Here is how I rank the top backs:
FIRST 2 ROUNDS
- Barkley….stand alone
- Zeke….see below
- Chubb….bell cow with upside
- Cook…could be a top 3 back this year, I have him higher than most people. The first year off a major leg injury is always a 70% year, this year he is gonna fucking go complete ape shit and if u are drafting late first early 2nd you HAVE TO grab him.
- Bell….Some say he isn’t a first round talent, I disagree, but I can’t pull on him in the first round, not because I don’t think he can have a huge year, but more due to the fact that he’s a headcase and you ALWAYS have to worry about losing him at some pt during the year to some ridiculous off the field shit. Personally I would go WR instead but early second I am all in (which he is falling to in some drafts)
- Conner….you can argue Conner higher, but I am a bit worried about Jaylen eating into him a bit.
- Mixon….I am a known Mixon hater but I even gotta admit he looked good at the end of last year. I got him behind Conner and ahead of Kerryon, but again….at this spot in the draft where this decision is made I am just drafting a WR, so I won’t have to worry about their ranks.
- DJ….I hate DJs line and QB. I know people have him at 5, but last year I told u to COMPLETELY AVOID him and this year it’s the same. I believe Kingsbury will get him more involved but I also believe his line is TERRIBLE and he will be hurt because of it.
- Gurley….I am shitting my pants, so unless he falls to late 2nd early 3rd I am not biting. I was one of the first last year on the “This injury is worse than they are saying” boat, so not backing off now. Sincerely, the guy who told u Andrew Luck will be retired by 2020.
Barkley is the stand alone 1 to me and CMC and Kamara are completely interchangeable. I know Mans is all in on Zeke at 1, but for me personally…..I am worried about where his head is at! Dude is a complete headcase and if his head isn’t right I can see him quitting on the team in games and partying and getting in trouble off the field. I would still take him 4, but I would rather draft at the back of the draft then be stuck in that 4-8 hole. AND THIS IS ALL ASSUMING HE SIGNS!!!! Missing the whole camp is NEVER a good thing so it is a HUGE gap for me between zeke and the top 3. Bell, Chubb, Cook are interchangeable for me and DJ will not be on a single team of mine.
ROUNDS 3-7 FAVORITES
Just cause someone isn’t listed doesn’t mean i don’t like them, it just means I think they should go around where they are going….like I’m not gonna list Freeman and Carson cause i think they are fair value where their ADP is. I am trying to target guys that are going too high or too late.
- Melvin Gordon rd 4+….If you can get Melvin in the 4th round i think you have to take a shot on him! I know there’s a lot of shit going on and Lev Bell has everyone shook, but this could just be a case of “I don’t wanna practice” and all of a sudden come week 1,2,3 we see him sign and u got a top 5 back in the 4th or 5th round. You would HAVE TO LOVE ur first few picks to pull this off, but just make sure u reach on Ekler or Jackson to cover yourself….you HAVE TO get one of them, and I prefer Ekeler since he will continue to have a role if Melly comes back, but I think Jackson is the better “value” going far later in drafts.
- Montgomery rd 4+….This kid is a star in the making….I wouldn’t pull early in round 4, but I would definitely consider him at the end of round 4 and for sure ANYWHERE in round 5. His ADP is around 50-60, so if u are stuck at RB, definitely reach on this kid.
- Aaron Jones rd 3+….I am obsessed with Jones, we all know that, and althought I worry about his usage and health, I am not letting him get past me at the end of the 3rd early 4th. Huge upside play here.
- Duke Johnson rd 7+….I would pull earlier if i was desperate for RB, the Miller news is gonna be huge for Duke. I still don’t think he becomes a bellcow but the opportunity here is the best of his career.
- Ekeler rd 7+.….great handcuff for Melvin and should see value even if he returns so he is the safest of the charger backs by far.
- Justin Jackson rd 11+…..He is going 15th round in some drafts which is insane. I could easily envision a scenario where he takes over Melvin’s role and Ekeler plays second fiddle. JJ is a steal in the late rounds.
- Justice Hill rd 9+….. I may even go 9 here. I fucking love this kid!!! I watched him his whole career in college and he was one of those guys who I said was gonna be a star in the league if he ends up in the right system. Ingram is the main back in Baltimore, but Justice will be served! Get him!
- Freeman rd 8+….I know Lindsay was the darling last year and his skillset is undeniable, but Royce should not be forgotten, especially since he should see the bulk of the early down volume and the goalline work.
- Devin Singletary rd 10+….Singletary was drafted to be the Bills starter for the future and the only people ahead of him are Shady and Gore, who are washed. The Bills should realize early on they are not going to be very good and by midseason Singletary should be the primary back. He has the most talent on the team and is the future. You might need to struggle thru some frustrating weeks early on, but it will pay off come playoff time for your league.
END OF DRAFT
Handcuff ur backs before u dig for sleepers!
- CJ Anderson
- Ty Montgomery
- Howell or Jones in Houston
- Rodney Anderson
- Theo Riddick
- Ito Smith
So we all know there won’t be a WR drafted in the first 4 picks, but there is a crop of superstars which need to be sorted out from mid to late round 1 into round 2. Here is the list of studs and my rankings.
- JuJu….I think he leads the league in FP for WRs this year and I know he is going like 5th or 6th overall, but this is a drastic miscalculation. He will be fed and fed often by Ben and some people are getting him in the 2nd round, which is fucking ludicrous.
- Adams…..Dhop seems to be the consensus #1, but I think Adams (who’s the only game in town now in GB) and JuJu eclipse him. You can’t go wrong with any of the top 4, but I got Adams ahead of Nuk by a hair.
- Hopkins…3 is as low as you will see Nuk across the industry and it is NOT cause I do not think he is the best WR in the league, cause I do, but with Duke being added and Fuller being back, there is not as much of a need to just FORCE the ball to DHop every play, so that volume should drop and he becomes a touch more human. Don’t forget how much Watson is obsessed with Fuller and that Fuller hasnt been on the field with Nuk much during his meteoric run.
- Thomas….Thomas is finally getting the respect he deserves
- Tyreek….huge upside every play, combined with Mahomes having another year under his belt.
- Julio….its just the injury concerns that put him here for me, I love his talent, but that fucking foot drives me nuts.
- OBJ….I think OBJ will have some MONSTER weeks, but overall he has not been very “consistent”. If you look at his game logs they look like this: 70, 87, 176, 49, 150, 38 etc. If I am taking a WR in the first round, I wanna know that week after week I am a lock for big production. The upgrade in QB is a touch neutralized by the increase in weapons to go to not named Odell. I think he is a 1000 yard receiver and has some huge games, but his erratic behavior combined with him being a complete bitch and constantly either injured or whining is something I don’t love.
- AB….not sure why OBJ goes 7 and AB goes 24 overall when they are the same fucking guy! AB has had some issues, yes, but to possibly get the best WR in the NFL over the past 5 years at the 20th+ pick overall is a risk I need to take. You KNOW gruden and Carr are gonna constantly feed him all game to keep him happy so he doesnt walk away.
- Keenan…steady as they come and Chargers should be more pass happy than usual this year.
HIGH-PROFILE WR FADES
- Evans….I am NEVER an Evans guy, especially now with the emergence of Godwin and this weird injury no one understands
- Hilton….No Luck, No thanks
- AJ Green…These injuries are getting to be too much, gonna miss weeks to start and then more weeks later on
ROUNDS 3-7 FAVORITES
Just cause someone isn’t listed doesn’t mean i don’t like them, it just means I think they should go around where they are going….like I’m not gonna list guys like Amari or Thielen cause i think they are fair value where their ADP is. I am trying to target guys who are going too high or too late.
- Will Fuller rd 5+…..he is going in the 7th in most drafts….no fucking way I am letting anyone get a hold of him ahead of me so I am willing to reach up to the end of round 5 for him. I know there are concerns about him staying on the field, but the upside is too great to let someone else steal him.
- DJ Moore rd 4+….#ThingsTommyGInvented. U guys know I worship this fuck, I had him in 100% of keeper drafts last year and our 2 biggest weeks were DJ Moore 1% owned explosions last year. I would CONSIDER him late 3rd…he is going early 5th, I want him anywhere in the 4th.
- Edelman end of rd 2+…..Edelman is gonna be a FUCKIN MACHINE this year with no Gronk around. Everyone keeps talking about Brady’s arm strength issues and the fact that Gronk is gone and Josh Gordon being back to stretch the field…..well guess what…..EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE THINGS ARE A + FOR JULIAN. He is going in the 4th round for some reason in some leagues which is fucking LUDICROUS! I have him as WR10 overall and I think he finishes the season as a top 7 WR and I will have him on every team I draft. I would consider him over AB at the end of round 2, but for sure will take him anywere in round 3.
- Godwin rd 3+….he should go in the 4th but I have him as WR 12 on the board. He will play almost every down and, regardless of Evans’ injuries, he will be fed. If Evans goes out for some time it just makes him that much sexier. I am reaching on him for sure
- Emmanuel Sanders 7+….I love Courtland Sutton too, but the fact that ES’s ADP is in the 100s is fuckin stupid. Flacco is an upgrade for deep balls to Emmanuel and u will see him have more long catches than he has in his career. I’m good with him in the 7th, but if you think i am letting him fall to the 9th, u are fucking insane. 8th would be a perfect spot to safely grab him, but if you are in a sharp league, maybe go late 7.
- James Washington rd 8+….He will go around the 9th/10th round in a lot of leagues, but 8th is where he should go. If you are desperate you can even pull late 7. This kid was a fucking freak of nature in college and now he has an opportunity to show it in the pros. There is NO debate, he is gonna be the #2 and he is gonna shine.
- Crowder rd 10+…..he is going as late as 15th round in a lot of drafts, but if you need stability at WR, this is ur guy. Darnold and him are going to have a Brady/Edelman type relationship this year and Crowder will consistently produce week after week for u.
- Tyrell WIlliams rd 9+….he is going around 10-12 but I am fine with a pull at 9 if you are truly worried about AB, which we all should be.
- John Brown rd 10+…..I was seeing him going in the 12th and 13th but it seems like he is a big time riser so u may need to go 9 or 10 to get him. I am not willing to go 9 due to injury worries, but 10th round provides upside with the big arm of Josh Allen being able to launch to him downfield.
- Deebo Samuel rd 10+….Anyone who watches college football knows this kid is a mother fucking freak of nature and he has looked great in the preseason. I know this is a crowded WR core, especially when u factor in Kittle’s targets, but Deebo is actually more talented than Pettis and Goodwin and one of the two, if not both, will definitely miss time this year. Early in the year you may be a little frustrated but Deebo is gonna beast out late in the year right in time for playoffs.
- Quincy Enunwa rd 14+….. Enunwa has looked great in camp and should benefit from Darnold’s progress. Anderson has A LOT of really tough shadow situations this year so although Crowder and Anderson are the main options, Enunwa is the locked in 3rd option and those tough shadow situations for Robby will make him the #2 option on about 6-7 weeks this year. He will be a solid WR4, WR5 on any fantasy team
END OF DRAFT
- Paul Richardson (DO NOT LEAVE THE DRAFT W/O HIM LATE)
- Jakobi Meyers
- David Moore
- Taylor Gabriel
- DJ Chalk
- Hunter Renfroe
LISTEN CLOSELY HERE!!!! This is the first year in a LONG TIME I am imploring you to get one of the top 6 tight ends. There is an extreme drop off after the big 6. I normally wait on TE, but this year, I am going to pull early cause of the drop off. I am including Henry in the big 6, but it is really the big 5.
- Kelce….Kelce is hands down the #1. I wouldn’t pull on him before the 10th pick, but I think he is a great pull if you can get him after 10 overall.
- Kittle…I personally think there is a very good chance Kittle ends as the top TE in all of fantasy this year and think all the weapons around him just help his cause. You can’t miss on Kelce or Kittle but Kittle going late 2nd is a big difference.
- Ertz….These next 3 are almost a dead heat for me, but you have to side with Ertz on name alone, but the VALUE for Engram and Howard is better since they will go later.
- Howard…..#ThingsTommyGInvented. I discovered OJ Howard and have the paper work to prove it (as alex jones would say). OJ could EASILY finish top 2 or 3 TE this year, so being that he is going in the 5th is kinda crazy. I am gonna sit tight and let the top 3 come off the board and then make sure to grab either OJ or Engram, who I have neck and neck.
- Engram….no OBJ and an early Tate suspension leads to a shit ton of targets for Engram on a team that should be trailing a lot this year. If you can get Engram in the late 4th or 5th ur doing just fine, 6th you stole him. His ADP is around 65 but I would advise jumping up to grab him or OJ depending on how ur draft is going.
- Henry….If something happens where BOTH Oj and Engram get stolen from me I will 100% take Henry with the next pick regardless of round. I am not leaving the draft without 1 of these 6 guys. Henry should be in line for a big year if he stays on the field in a pass happy offense.
LATE-ROUND TE2 FAVORITES
Here are my top 14:
If your league hasn’t gotten rid of the kicker by now, you should change leagues! For Christ’s sake even Fanduel, who is usually 10 years behind the curve, eliminated the damn Kicker. Step into the 21st century, be a fuckin man, and lose the Kicker. But if you need Kicker analysis I know Mans did some for you so go talk to him. I refuse to cater to those of you that still have kickers in leagues.
You don’t need to play all of these, obviously, but here is a list of props I think are very bettable. Keep in mind they may vary from book to book.
- Jags over 7.5 -130
- Bills under 7 -120
- Browns under 9.5 -150
- Patriots over 11 -130
- Rams under 10.5 -140
- Broncos over 7 -115
- Cowboys over 8.5 -140
- Chargers under 10 -120
- Arizona under 5.5 -130
- Jets over 7 wins -160
Win Their Division
- Jags +270 (great value)
- Chiefs -155
- Vikings +210 (great value)
- Saints -165
- Patriots +700
- Vikings +3000 (small stab)
Keep checking back, I may add more.
- Kyler Murray under 3461.5 pass yards
- Kyler Murray under 21.5 pass TDs
- David Johnson under 1050.5 rush yards
- Kamara over 947.5 rush yards
- Mike Evans under 1347.5 rec yards
- Darnold over 24.5 pass TDs
- Darnold over 3699.5 pass yds
- Goff over 27.5 pass TDs
- Fournette under 999.5 rush yds
Rookie of the Year
- Montgomery +1300
- Josh Jacobs +700
- Mahomes +500
Most Receiving Yards
- JuJu +1600
- Tyreek +1300
Most Receiving TDs
- JuJu +1600 (small)
- Adams +600
Most Rushing Yards
- Saquon +700
- Zeke +800
Most Passing Yards
- Ryan +600
- Goff +3000
NFL DFS Strategy
Tommy G Tournament Selection Bible
So those of you that followed my baseball analysis and play this year may have noticed you did not see me in any qualifiers and I had very limited large field GPP action, I spent most of my days lying in the mud with 3 mans & 5 mans and playing less DFS volume in MLB than in years past. The reason for the lack of qualifiers was mainly the payout structure. This year the Fanduel Live final was 495,000 to 1st, 290,000 to 2nd and 90,000 to 3rd. 7th place was like 20k or some shit. 54% of the prize pool went to the top 2 people and 67% went to the top 4! That is FUCKING DISGUSTING and not worth even entertaining, but the NFL ones are a bit of a better format, on top of having 10 top prizes of 6 and 7 figures (instead of 2), so I will be attacking them again. There were 2 main reasons why my DFS play was down during MLB:
- Gambling is now legal in NJ and I have been SLAUGHTERING the pitcher props and team totals and using them as a DFS supplement, not to say you shouldn’t play DFS, but we need to be more responsible with our play nowadays to make a profit (My next DFS article is going to be a “Sports Betting for DFS Players” article, and it will be the best one I have ever written! Stay tuned…). There are ways to use DFS and gambling to offset each other, but for those of you who are opposed to gambling or don’t have it legal in your state, I will walk you through which GPPs are the best to play below. One thing I was doing was parlaying pitcher props and team totals, which was basically like setting a DFS lineup without having to compete with anyone. So if I liked Giolito and the Astros stack, I could parlay Giolito over 6.5Ks with the Astros team total over 5.5 and I had a multiplier win if both hit, with ZERO CONCERN for ownership, who scored the runs or what any other team was doing. I was able to basically get paid as long as I hit my analysis without concern for the field. This was very profitable for myself and the subscribers and my next article will detail how to use this strategy in combination with ur DFS play. (All DFS full season subs have a $100 or $200 coupon for EliteSportsbetting.com, so DM the house account @ElitefantasyHQ if you didn’t receive it)
- Large field GPP payouts got fucking ridiculous this baseball season where they were basically all or none tournaments with moronic payouts vs other people’s 150 lineups, so below we are going to attack which GPPs we should play and which ones we should avoid, in order to become more responsible players.
This football season I will go back to my usual thousands of dollars per slate in volume, BUT I am playing smarter this NFL season than in years past, and below I am giving you a guide to identifying the proper GPPs to play to leverage our skills for more consistent results.
Pictured below is an example of the biggest Week 3 NFL preseason GPP, and this will be the POSTER CHILD for what NOT to play…….
This is the type of shit that needs to be BANNED from DFS, and we need to start boycotting it. If you see ANY tournament where the min cash is not 2X the buy-in…BOYCOTT IT! If you see any GPP where first place is 5X 2nd place, BOYCOTT IT. If you see any GPP where first place is 50X 7th place, BOYCOTT IT!
Luckily, I wasn’t the only one throwing a shit fit this year and screaming at DK and even boycotting the GPPs, so it looks like early on their NFL structure is a lot more flat (outside of this ridiculous preseason one above)! Here is an example of a much better structure …The $9 NFL Slant.
Notice that first place is NOT 5X second place, nor is it 33% of the prize pool like the above example. First place is actually 10% of the prize pool, it is less than double second place, there are nice flat payouts, and the last cashing spot is 2X ur money! THIS is the type of tournament I can get behind, and you really need to analyze the GPPs to decide which ones you will enter, because the chances of banking 1st are always slim to none, so you wanna make sure if you do put up a miraculous score, but just miss the top, you can still walk away with a ton of money.
The Eight Keys to analyzing a large field GPP are pretty simple……
1) Is the first prize more than 25% of the total prize pool? If the answer to this question is YES, then run! As nice as that huge number looks up top, the rest of the payouts below it are usually fucking dogshit and you need to avoid these GPPs. The most optimal payout structure is 10% to 1st place, with 15-%20% being fine and 25% being the ABSOLUTE MOST that should be allowed! Anything more than 25% to 1st, BOYCOTT THAT SHIT!
2) Is first place more than 10X 10th place? If the answer to this is yes, then you are most likely in a donkey tournament. I always assume I will finish 10th if I hit the nuts and I look at the payout structures accordingly. In the SLANT above, first place is 10X 10th so that is a good GPP for “fun money,” but by comparison, the $3 Playaction (below) has 10% to first, BUT I will tell you it is a donkey tournament because 1st is 50X 10th (compared to 10X in the Slant) and min cash is 1.67X compared to 2X. See below:
The Slant and the Playaction are both $500,000 prize pools, but Slant is paying 10% to first, 2X min cash and first is 10X more than 10th. The Playaction is 10% to first, only 1.67X min cash and first is 50X more than 10th! To put it in perspective, you can cash 30th on the Slant and you are only 1/50th of first, that is 20 extra spots!
3) Is the final cashing spot 2X my money? If the answer to this is NO, then run! GPPs are tougher than cash games to cash, so if I can’t win double my money for beating 80% of the field, then fuck it, I’m out.
4) Is the field more than 10,000 people? If so, you can play, but ASSUME THE LOSS and only play like 1%-5% of your bankroll on it. I personally try to stay between 50-500 people in GPPs for my REAL money during the NFL season and you should do the same. Beating 10,000 people is insanity, but I am ok with it if you are throwing a dart for fun, just make sure it is with fun money you expect to lose. Those of you entering the Milly Maker….let me put something in perspective. There are 294,100 people in that tournament, yes the 1st place prize looks nice, but let me give you a visual representation of what 294,000 people look like so you can understand how ridiculous thinking you can win this is, even with 150 entries:
Michigan Stadium holds about 100,000 people, so you are basically playing 3 FUCKING FULL STADIUMS of people in the GPP and even with ur 150 lineups, you are sitting on a FUCKIN MIRACLE to win…..in order to just CASH at 22% you need to beat about 230,000 people, so about 2 Michigan football stadiums, and if you are able to beat 2 football stadiums of people, DK will give you the wonderful prize of (drum roll please) $10 profit (1.5X)!!! Sounds amazing right? Now don’t get me wrong, the Milly Maker is fun and I will be trying to catch lightning in a bottle too, BUT for 1%-5% of my weekly bankroll, no more! So basically if you are playing $400 on sunday, you can throw $20 in the milly (5%), but if you are playing less than that, sorry, BOYCOTT IT.
5) Is the rake optimal? Obviously, DFS companies have begun straight raping players with rake, but there are extensions out there to calculate rake, along with just being able to do simple math. Take the “entries” times the “price” and whatever that number is, that is the total money allocated, then divide the excess into the prize pool to see how much DK makes:
- EXAMPLE: Milly Maker: $20 entry X 294,100 people = $5,882,000. The prize pool is only $5,000,000 which means $882,000 goes to DK. $882,000 divided by $5,882,000 total = 15% rake.
To show you how big a difference this is from tourney to tourney…
- EXAMPLE 2: Luxury Box: $3,000 entry X 268 people = $804,000. The prize pool is $760,000, which means $44,000 goes to DK. $44,000 divided by $804,000 is 5% rake.
CRAZY RIGHT? The unfortunate thing for smaller players is as you go up in dollar entry amount, the rake goes down, but why? The answer is simple: These sites take advantage of idiots and there aren’t many idiots in the high dollar games! SO DON’T BE A FUCKING IDIOT! There is ZERO reason why the $5 games have a 15% rake and the $1000 games have a 5% rake outside of the fact that…THEY CAN! So make sure you are always aware of the rake when playing ur contests. 5% is amazing, 10% is fair, 15% is ridiculous. Again, I know the 15% is a bit unavoidable if you are a smaller player, but at least be aware you are getting fucked in the ass.
6) Is 20% of the field cashing? If the answer is no, RUN! Of late we have seen a lot of GPPs begin to gravitate towards top-heavy payouts (cause it is easy to market a 100k first prize, and people only focus on that number), but we have also seen the sites begin to chop the cash line down, to inflate the top #. 20% is a fair number, but ideally, you want as close to 25% as possible. Here is an example:
- Example 1: The $3 pylon single entry on Draftkings has $100,000 prize pool, 39,600 players and 25.28% of players will cash!
- Example 2: The $333 wildcat on Draftkings has a 1.5 million dollar prize pool, 5005 players and only 20.98% of the players will cash.
See, so sometimes the little guys actually don’t get fucked. What you will notice with most GPPs is that the ones with the best min cash and best payouts, usually have the lowest cash %, very few tournaments will have good flat payouts, good min cash, good rake and a low cash line….they are almost impossible to find. The example we gave above on the $9 Slant was showing how superior it was to the $3 playaction, and it was, in rake and payouts and min cash, BUT only 20.98% of people get paid compared to 25.28% of people in the Playaction, so there is a give and take. I personally prefer a 21% cash line and flat payouts to a 25% cashline and top-heavy setup, but this is personal preference. The whole point I am making here is to be responsible and to look at all this stuff before selecting your GPPs. The GPP I think is the closest to the “Gold Standard” is the $444 NFL Juke 3 entry max, this GPP has 150 people, 20% prize pool to 1st, 1st is 10X 13th, rake is 9.86%, 22.21% of people cash, you are not competing with 150 lineups and min cash is 2X. This is as close to perfect as you will see in DFS this year.
7) Are you competing on a level playing field? If you are putting 1 lineup into a tournament vs someone else’s 150 lineups, you are basically throwing money away. I personally am ok going 1 lineup vs 3 lineups or 3 lineups vs 9 lineups, but once it gets over 3X, I know it is a very -EV situation. The single entries and 3 entry maxes are the safest and best places to go for your GPP action because no one is gonna have you dominated by more than 3X your entries. Personally I will prefer to max enter the 3 max to provide a completely level playing field, but I can bang with anyone 1 on 3…..1 on 150, nah brah, that is just luck at that point. I know the biggest top prize GPPs are 150 max, and I am not telling u to fade them all together, I am just telling you to use that 1%-5% of your bankroll on those, that “Fun Money” as we called it earlier, and expect to lose.
8) Is the tournament going to overlay? “Overlay” is a term for when a tournament is not going to fill. When tournaments are not filling, ALL of the above math we have pointed out gets boosted in our favor, making these the most optimal tournaments to enter.
- Example: If a 100 person tournament pays top 20, then 20% of the people will get paid. If the same tournament only fills 80 of the 100 people, now the top 25% will be paid, boosting our chances of winning by a good deal and making this a GPP we want to target!
Do be aware that a lot of the DK & FD tournaments fill late, so don’t jump in them too early, but if you can find GPPs that are overlaying substantially, these are the ones you want to hunt down and enter with the larger portion of your bankroll. Newer GPPs that are not offered every week tend to be the ones to overlay the most, so keep your eye out!
I will be adding to this article as I think of more things, but for now, this should be a good gauge and cheat sheet to allow you guys to make better decisions. We will be supplying weekly content around which GPPs are the best to target at EliteFantasy.com to take the legwork out of it for you guys!
Good Luck and Stay Cashin’