Taylor shares the DraftKings Cash Game lineup she used on Sunday, and breaks down where it went right and where it went wrong!
Week two took the lives of many… Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and me. I got absolutely dusted in cash games yesterday, but truth be told, I’m not really eaten up about it. The process for the week was right, and injuries, though they can sometimes be anticipated, cannot be predicted. Let’s take a look at what happened on Week 2’s “Bloody Sunday”.
By Saturday night I had narrowed my QB pool to Brady, Allen and Roethlisberger. As a self proclaimed Patriot’s homer, I hold Brady on a pedestal, and while he’s always great for football, he’s not always ideal for fantasy, as our backfield is filled with options to use in the red zone. In the end, I knew it was a great matchup, but feared game script and wanted to go with someone a little safer who I thought would still be in a competitive game come the second quarter. Ultimately, it came down to Allen v Big Ben for me and while I liked Allen’s matchup, I got too hyped up on a comeback spot for Ben and Steelers. With cash game ownership getting more and more concentrated as more players get ahold of content, I’ve found it’s usually more profitable to pivot just a little in cash. I thought Ben was in a great spot, but also assumed he’d play the entire game. Ben ended the day 3 fantasy points after leaving with elbow issues in the first quarter.
Running back was pretty cut and dry for me this week and I didn’t have a very large pool. Kamara, Ekeler, and Josh Jacobs were set for me very early in the week. The Rams Saints game was set up to be fantasy gold with a 52.5 total and pass catching backs fair pretty well against LA (as seen in week 1 with McCaffrey’s 45+ DK point performance.) Kamara was underpriced, and I wanted to take advantage of it. Of course we know now that Brees tore a ligament during the game. Enter Teddy Bridgewater, exit all of my fantasy points. Again, can’t predict injuries so chalking this one up to factors outside of my control. With Ekeler, he’s seeing 20% team target share, and Mike Williams was doubtful up until game time (though did ultimately play on about 60% of the team’s snaps.) I was concerned with pace, but Ekeler was also underpriced for his role in the offense, PPR value and then less than normally effective Mike Williams. Finally with Jacobs, I just wasn’t’ going to overthink it. The Raiders were grandfathered in this week holding on to week 1 pricing, as they played on MNF and Dk didn’t have a chance to adjust for their performances. $4700 for a back that played 75% of the teams snaps the week prior and rushed 23 times for 85 yards with two trips to end zone was an obvious price discrepancy. The thing was, in week 1, we saw the Raiders in a positive game script, and Jacobs only received 1 target. The question was would he deployed the same if the Raiders needed to play catch up? Narrator he would not. It was a risk I was willing to take on player who was underpriced and I knew would garner a lot of ownership in games. It didn’t work out, but again, process was there.
Wide receiver also wasn’t a place of big question for me in week 2. I went with Juju, Sammy and Tyrell Williams. The only true debate I had was Juju or Michael Thomas, and while I was getting exposure through Kamara, I decided to stack Juju with Ben as I really liked the $7500 price tag on him. Tyrell was another product of the Raiders misprice and Sammy was a way to bring that game back (highest total on the slate at 53.5). Tyrell performed decently for the price tag, hauling in a score in the first quarter, but apparently, I forgot to check my calendar to see it was Demarcus Robinson day for KC.
I went full Oakland onslaught yesterday, using Darren Waller at the TE position. It was a great week for tight end (or so we thought prior to lock) with options like Kelce, Engram and TJ Hockenson all in presumably good spots. In the end, it came down to what was most price agnostic and allowed me to fill in the rest of my lineup with quality players and at $3300 I couldn’t pass up a guy with a 31% team target share (highest on the team).
Texans were my target DST all week. Playing against a guy named Gardner Minshew automatically gets you an additional 6 FPTs right? They priced pretty well for the advantage they had this week and I just couldn’t hang with the idea of changing one of my skill positions to fit the New England DST.
So while yesterday resulting in missing the cash line, by a lot, you may be asking where the photo of the lineup is. I don’t have it. I don’t have it because after the first round of games, and my QB ending with three 3 FPTs, I completely blew up the lineup. I knew I wasn’t going to make up the points being behind the QB curve, and the players I had left were all going to be decently owned. I took out Kamara, I took out Sammy, I left Waller due to no other viable option at price, and I took out Jacobs. Losing money wasn’t fun but it gave me the opportunity to talk about something in this article that I think goes unnoticed and way underutilized in NFL. Late swap. Whenever I have lineups that I know are completely dead after the 12pm games, I late swap the remaining players to lower owned optioned that maybe be in terrible spots, but with the variance of NFL, anything can happen. Anyone can rip off a 60 yard TD run, busted coverage can lead to scores with WRs who may have tough corner coverage, injuries happen. I’ve used this strategy for a while, and it’s actually resulted in a GPP takedown with a lineup I thought had no chance of min cashing. No one talks about it, but it’s something we can all practice to salvage some lineups on those terrible, terrible, days like yesterday. And if the lineup is dead anyway, what do you really have to lose? I ended up swapping in Gurley for Kamara, Allen Robinson for Sammy, Hardman for Tyrell, and Brandin Cooks for Josh Jacobs. The first lineup without any swaps would have totaled 93 total points (My God.) With the swaps, it made it to 119.50. Still not good enough to cash, but almost a 30 point difference. Late swapping is a great way to get an edge in a game that gets tougher every year. As always, I will be in the chat tonight to answer any questions about the week!
2019 Cash Lineup Record: 1-1