Sick of the big DFS sites? Vlad Sedler walks you through his favorite NFL values on SuperDraft, a site that’s different in all the right ways!!
Welcome to Vlad’s Values for SuperDraft Week 9 💰
Another high scoring slate last Sunday, as the winner of the $20 Red Zone GPP took down the $15,000 prize with a 277.38 score, fueled by Dalvin Cook’s massive four-touchdown effort at under 10 percent.
Seattle rookie RB DeeJay Dallas’ second touchdown in his first-ever start was the difference-maker at the 2x multiplier. It was very possible AllyBourne late-swapped Dallas in once it was confirmed Chris Carson wasn’t playing, leading to Dallas seeing the majority of snaps at RB for the Seahawks. A particular kick in the pants for yours truly since I had recommended him in last week’s article yet didn’t make any major late swaps before the late games. I did end up winning all my cash games and doubling my entry fees, but it could have been a much sweeter day. My best lineup (of 14) in the Red Zone ended up 56th overall and was a Packers mini-stack (Rodgers/Williams/Adams) with a Cook bring-back, Brandon Aiyuk, Allen Robinson and a 1.75x J.K. Dobbins at 8.4%.
Adding Week 8’s results to our weekly GPP-winner analysis chart, you’ll note just how many bargains had great outings, as the average multiplier for the squad (1.64x) was the highest of the last five Sunday slates. Average ownership per player (15%) fell back in line to previous weeks after the Week 7 outlier of 25% that will for now be known as 2020 Chalk Week.
WEEK 9 PRIMER
Yet another slate with fantastic value plays, specifically with running backs where I’m hard-pressed to reduce my player pool there, as I have about 15 legitimate options to consider. More on who to target and who to pivot off later.
As far as game stacks to target in GPP’s, we should expect the Broncos’ combo of Drew Lock (1.65x) and Jerry Jeudy (1.7x) to be incredibly popular. In fact, we will likely see that duo grace the lineups of many 50/50 cash game entries this weekend. A slight wrench in our plans might be thrown if Matthew Stafford (1.35x) can’t play – meaning we’d have to strongly consider a 2x Chase Daniel. Though I’m no COVID expert nor fortune teller, my strong assumption is Stafford suits up and the Daniel alternative won’t even come to fruition.
Our highest implied team total on the slate is the Chiefs (31.75), yet we’re not likely to see many game stacks nor players rostered from that game. We should, though, expect to see the following games with the highest mixes of stacks:
- Seahawks vs. Bills (Vegas total: 55)
- Raiders vs. Chargers (52)
- Texans vs. Jaguars (50)
- Lions vs. Vikings (52)
- Broncos vs. Falcons (50)
Here’s how most can or will employ them:
SEA/BUF – This requires a 1x Russell Wilson or 1.1x Josh Allen and pairing them up primarily with their top receivers, all whose values range between 1.1x and 1.3x (Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs). Your first option (if you don’t favor this game ahead of the rest or think this stack will be too chalky) would be to either not stack it, or just use a couple of your favorite value pieces.
The second way would be to do a Wilson-Lockett-Diggs or an Allen-Diggs-Lockett (or Metcalf for Lockett leverage) and build the rest of the lineup out from other games. The third option means this game is your jam and you’re fully confident it is going to shoot out. In which case, we’d have to tack on additional pieces such as Cole Beasley (1.55x) or one of the running backs (Zack Moss 1.75x, DeeJay Dallas 2x, though I’m personally wary of Dallas).
I personally love this game, knowing full well it will be more popular to stack on other DFS sites because SuperDraft’s best multiplier values are found in other games on this slate. I do think Beasley is a strong play in a SEA/BUF stack, likely in addition to Diggs. Beasley is averaging a little over six targets per game and has the best matchup of any Bills’ wideout against slot CB backup D.J. Reed Jr. Big Cole also happens to quietly rank 18th in receiving yards this season. The Seahawks do eagerly welcome stud safety Jamal Adams to return, but this defense is still horrendous against opposing pass attacks and should present the opportunity of a bounce-back ceiling effort from Bills’ quarterback Allen.
From the Raiders-Chargers game, expect 1.35x Keenan Allen to be the highest owned, as his multiplier is not on par with recent performance (it should be at 1.2x). Josh Jacobs (1.3x) coming off his first triple-digit rushing effort last week should be a popular play, as well. Mike Williams at 1.75x is still a great deal, albeit sometimes one we tilt on. Derek Carr at 1.45x is close enough to the median to the point where he will easily find himself among the top-five owned QB’s on this slate.
In the Texans-Jaguars game, we may find some Jake Luton lovers because of the price (2x) and the thrill of the unknown. Not to mention, his complimentary wideout pieces are all affordable and one could be used as a bring-back in a Texans onslaught stack. Though whoever rosters Deshaun Watson (1.2x) will likely pair him with Brandin Cooks (1.6x), I’ll likely opt to use Will Fuller (1.3x) instead. We may have a squeaky wheel to grease following his almost-trade to the Packers.
Lions-Vikings will have some mega chalk, namely Dalvin Cook even though he’s 1.15x and Lions’ veteran wideout Marvin Jones Jr. at his absurd 1.85x cost. Anything off would be a pivot. Like if you believe this game flows contrary to public opinion with the Lions controlling the ball with their RB’s (Swift/Peterson), which would then require the Vikings to pick up their pace, utilizing Kirk Cousins (1.35x) with one of Adam Thielen (1.35x) or Justin Jefferson (1.5x). It’s certainly a game flow that could come to fruition and pivots that wouldn’t be insulting to roster. I actually do think Thielen could have a sneaky off-the-radar big-time outing at very low ownership.
And so we’ve come full circle to the Broncos and Falcons, where it’s likely that most with the Lock-Jeudy combo add to it with another receiver (TE Noah Fant 1.4x) and a bring-back of either the straightforward variety (Julio Jones 1.1x) or slot man Russell Gage (1.8x). I’ve got no qualms about this stack since the multipliers in this game really do tempt us to bring our cash builds here. This isn’t my favorite game on this slate, but if I were building only three lineups, this game stack would crack one of my lineups.
MY PLAYER POOL CONSIDERATIONS
After Lock, it feels as though there may be some traps on the board. One of those is rookie Jake Luton, who was an NFL Draft day afterthought (sixth round) and not very effective as the primary signal-caller at Oregon State the last couple of seasons. The 2x sure is tempting, though I’d be wary of using him on your primary lineup or in cash. Not just because of the unknown, but because the Jags might put a greater emphasis on hiding him and running the hell out of the ball with James Robinson.
Sure, there’s a scenario where no other QB tops 40 points (with their respective multipliers) and Luton puts up a solid 260-2-0 line, which would turn his 20 fantasy points into 40 at 2x, making it the highest output from a QB on the slate. It’s certainly in the realm of possibility because Carr would need to put 28 to top 40 after his 1.45x, Watson would need 34, and the likes of Wilson and Kyler Murray (the 1x’s) would all have to get there au naturel. So, it’s a long explanation where I just convinced myself (and perhaps you as well) that Luton should receive fair attention for our lineup builds.
Here’s how I’m ranking them:
- Drew Lock, DEN (1.65x)
- Josh Allen, BUF (1.1x)
- Deshaun Watson, HOU (1.2x)
- Derek Carr, LV (1.45x)
- Jake Luton, JAC (2x)
- Matthew Stafford, DET (1.35x)
- Justin Herbert, LAC (1.25x)
- CONTRARIAN: Nick Foles, CHI (1.55x)
Haven’t decided where I’ll land in cash games but will probably follow the herd with Lock/Jeudy and differentiate in tournaments. Allen (with Stefon Diggs) will be a common pairing for me, as I really do believe this game stack shoots out. I’ll balance out Allen’s low multiplier with some of the great RB/WR/TE values over 1.5x.
The news of Chargers’ stout defender Joey Bosa (doubtful) should increase my exposure to Carr.
Will have some Luton as a flier, most likely pairing him with Laviska Shenault or Keelan Cole since D.J. Chark has the toughest matchup (Bradley Roby) and will be in shadow coverage.
Foles will be a low-owned play that I’ll throw a few bullets in with, as it’s a rare solid spot for the pass offense facing a Titans’ defense that ranks 19th in pass DVOA defense and 24th in QB DvP.
The guys listed here are the ones with the highest likelihood of landing in the most 50/50 and GPP lineups.
- James Conner, PIT (1.35x)
- Dalvin Cook, MIN (1.15x)
- Chase Edmonds, ARI (1.35x)
- Justin Jackson, LAC (1.7x)
- James Robinson, JAC (1.4x)
- Josh Jacobs, LV (1.3x)
- DeeJay Dallas, SEA (1.9x) – possible fade with Homer and Collins mixing in
Love the matchups for the top five guys on this list (Conner, Cook, Edmonds, Jackson, Robinson), and I may have a tough time deciding where to play them and how to match them up, but they are all my favorite backs on the slate. It certainly feels like a 20-100-2, 3-30 type box score for Conner, but risk of a blowout could lead to garbage time starting early with Benny Snell. Or perhaps Conner does all the damage between the 20’s but gets vultured by his own passing game for the touchdowns.
With Cook, there should be zero concern when you realize he’s been the league’s best fantasy running back and has a near-perfect matchup, as the Vikings are home favorites against the Lions. Even the extra 0.15 multiplier is unreasonable for a guy who should be at 1 or 1.05x. But crazy things happen every week to at least one member of the All-Chalk Club, and I won’t be all-in for that very reason.
Jags’ Robinson has a fantastic spot fresh off a bye where his offensive line (9th) has a distinguishable advantage against a 31st ranked Texans’ defensive line. He should still be viable even if game script goes against them and dictates heavy passing, as Luton should lock in on Robinson all game as his safety valve.
Note, I’ve got the warning out there for us to be careful with Dallas at a very tempting 1.9x. I really wouldn’t be shocked to see him only on third downs with Alex Collins handling the bulk of the carries with Travis Homer.
- Christian McCaffrey, CAR (1x)
- David Johnson, HOU (1.4x)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (1.35x)
- J.K. Dobbins, BAL (1.75x)
- Zack Moss, BUF (1.75x)
- Tony Pollard, DAL (1.6x)
A few names here who could potentially crack a GPP-winning lineup, but all have a few more question marks than the first group listed. McCaffrey’s matchup against the Chiefs is fantastic, and his usage is game flow agnostic, but you have to assume Mike Davis mixes in on at least 30% of snaps. He might smash, but I’ll likely watch from afar, as there are just too many viable options with better multipliers this week.
Texans’ Johnson is in a prime spot for his first 100-yard rushing game of the season, but the 1.4x is hard to justify him over alternative options in his range. Same with Edwards-Helaire, who may have a fantastic game script but still has Le’Veon Bell siphoning off snap share. Of the three value plays (Dobbins, Moss, Pollard), I’d lean Pollard based on implied usage and check-down volume with Zeke out though much less likely to use at 1.6x.
If you’re building for MME and feeling froggy, you might consider throwing in some Dolphins’ backs. Jordan Howard (1.95x) will handle the early-down work and would be the first man called up if any goal-line opportunities present themselves. Patrick Laird (1.85x) will handle the third-down duties but better suited for full PPR. I likely won’t go here with either of them, as there are way too many affordable options at the position and I don’t foresee either of them cracking the GPP-winning lineup.
Breaking these down in three different ranges: 1x – 1.45x, 1.5x – 1.75x, 1.8x – 2x
1x – 1.45x
- Stefon Diggs, BUF (1.3x) – favorite play on the board; the spot we’ve been waiting for
- Tyler Lockett, SEA (1.25x) – preferred over Metcalf; SEA allows 6 TPG/68 YPG to slot WR’s
- Will Fuller, HOU (1.3x) – squeaky wheel narrative after almost being traded
- Keenan Allen, LAC (1.35x) – chalky, great matchup, averaging 13(!) targets last five healthy games
- Adam Thielen, MIN (1.35x) – leverage off chalky Cook; low %, great spot for blowup
- Allen Robinson, CHI (1.4x) – still the alpha and advantage as route-runner over M. Butler
- Julio Jones, ATL (1.1x) – great spot with no Ridley but less of a priority at this multiplier
1.5x – 1.75x
- Jerry Jeudy, DEN (1.7x) – should be highest owned WR; lock in cash, consider pivot in GPPs
- Cole Beasley, BUF (1.55x) – SEA serving up league-worst 21 FPG to opposing slot WR’s, wow
- Diontae Johnson, PIT (1.55x) – game flow may not be ideal unless DAL keeps up (unlikely)
- Brandin Cooks, HOU (1.6x) – will be higher owned than Fuller at this multiplier, but I prefer Fuller
- Danny Amendola, DET (1.7x) – use in DET double-stacks or as pivot off Marv Jones
- Mike Williams, LAC (1.75x) – the ultimate boom or bust, but vs. LV Raiders is a great spot
- Justin Jefferson, MIN (1.5x) – prefer Thielen this week so likely won’t go here
1.8x – 2x
- Marvin Jones, DET (1.85x) – forget the 4 TD vs MIN last year; reason to use is price/no Golladay
- Russell Gage, ATL (1.8x) – should see bump in targets and target share with Ridley out
- Laviska Shenault, JAC (1.85x) – good garbage time spot and more targets with Chark vs. Roby
- Marvin Hall, DET (2x) – dropped a 4-113-0 line last week and could be deep guy again
- Marcus Johnson, IND (1.95x) – MME only; Rivers’ deep guy with no Hilton; but tough matchup
- Michael Pittman, IND (1.95x) – he and Pascal should be primary possession guys; hard matchup
- Christian Blake/O. Zaccheaus, ATL (2x) – may split snaps; hard to justify when Gage is 1.8x
I will likely have most of my WR exposure in the 1.5x – 1.75x group with Lions’ Jones as my most affordable guy. May not venture below that outside of game stacks.
- Noah Fant, DEN (1.4x)
- Evan Engram, NYG (1.45x)
- Will Dissly, SEA (2x)
- Hayden Hurst, ATL (1.7x)
- Hunter Henry, LAC (1.5x)
Keeping my player pool condensed to just these tight ends this week. Fant works well this week in cash or in a double-stack with Lock and Jeudy. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him outscore Jeudy this week.
Engram feels very overdue, as he’s seen 19 targets over the last two games and still hasn’t scored a receiving touchdown. Washington serves up 12.5 FPG to opposing tight ends and is even weaker now without strong safety Landon Collins, who tore his Achilles in their game before the bye.
Boy, do I hope Dissly doesn’t become a ‘thing’ on Twitter this weekend. I had some exposure to him last week, and though he managed just one catch, he did lead his fellow tight ends in snaps. Dissly did miss two end-zone targets against the Cardinals two weeks ago and does have the best rapport among the TE’s with QB Wilson. I believe he rewards us this week and puts in work against a Bills’ defense allowing the third-most receptions, yards and targets to the position. It helps our cause knowing Greg Olsen is dealing with a foot ailment and isn’t at full strength.
Hurst will be the chalkiest guy at the position, and for good reason. The multiplier is too good to be true, and he should see a spike in targets with Ridley on the shelf. Hurst has topped 50 yards or scored a touchdown in six of his eight games this season.
Henry will probably score two touchdowns in a week where he’s not a focal point for me. Hate when that happens, so will likely sprinkle him in on some GPP’s. He has just one TD this season despite leading all teammates in targets inside the 10.
That will do it for Week 9. Good luck and may the gut be with you!
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