Sick of the big DFS sites? Vlad Sedler walks you through his favorite NFL values on SuperDraft, a site that’s different in all the right ways!!
Welcome to Vlad’s SuperDraft Values for Week 12!
If you have been following along, you may have noticed a recurring theme over the past month where certain players keep popping up in the Red Zone GPP-winning lineup. Diontae Johnson (WR/PIT) graced the winning lineup in each of the last two weeks. Terry McLaurin (WR/WAS) was a part of it in Week 9 and 11. Both Dalvin Cook (RB/MIN) and Keenan Allen (WR/LAC) have been on it in three of the past four slates (Weeks 8, 9 and 11). Even rookie third-string Seahawks running back DeeJay Dallas was in the optimal lineup in Weeks 8 and 9 at the high end of the multiplier. McLaurin already played on Thanksgiving, but both Cook and Allen set up nicely with good matchups yet again in Week 12.
All the pieces of the winning lineup in Week 11 were a part of my article last week with the exception of Adam Thielen. Taysom Hill and McLaurin were listed as the top plays at their respective positions, and Dalton Schultz’s 1.95x multiplier was simply too hard to pass on in a week where tight end had very few enticing options.
Here’s a look at terrapin’s lineup which took down the 20k prize:
Another low-scoring slate and the second week in a row a GPP-winning lineup did not top 230 points. It’s a trend we shouldn’t be shocked to see continue as we get deeper into adverse weather season and since many of the high-powered offenses are playing primetime island games. The average multiplier yet again fell between the 1.45x – 1.6x range, now in seven of the last eight weeks. We also witnessed a return to chalkier winning builds with a total ownership rate of 185 percent, as we recognize that Week 10 rate of 43.4 as an outlier. Unless we’re building 150 lineups, we usually don’t have to make our builds too off-the-wall. Rather, we simply sprinkle in our favorite options we project to be low-owned and in advantageous matchups.
WEEK 12 PLAYER POOL
Really do like this slate. Though it seems like we have more fantasy-relevant injury news than ever, we do have plenty of players ruled out early enough to make our decisions easier and less frantically. It shouldn’t be difficult to figure out the Chargers-Bills and Chiefs-Buccaneers games will be the slate’s most popular games to attack even though their primary offensive pieces are on the lower end of the multiplier scale.
Expect both Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson to garner ownership over 25 percent, especially with Adam Thielen not playing. The Falcons without Todd Gurley and possibly Julio Jones would make the Falcons’ targets of choice easier to decide on for Sunday. Though this game has one of the higher Vegas totals (54), these are teams who don’t typically play at a particularly high pace. The Browns-Jaguars affair may not look sexy on paper, but there are some very affordable pieces (particularly, Jaguars’ WRs) who can find their way onto optimal lineups if veteran backup Mike Glennon can be efficient and connect in the assumed garbage time.
If you’re looking for a sneaky game stack to attack, look no further than the Titans-Colts. This total has jumped two points (from 49.5 to 51.5), and it might be a back-and-forth affair with Indy missing a few key defenders. Michael Pittman Jr. has that feel of a young Mike Evans and appears to be pulling away from the pack as their alpha with solid back-to-back performances. At 1.85x, I’d expect him to be one of the most popular wideouts on the slate.
So many solid options, and you’ll have the lowest margin for error, as there should be several QBs this week who top 30 fantasy points with their multipliers. Maybe just use a baseline of 250 passing yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions (275-2-0) to calculate 20 standard FP. Then realize that if a 1.5x QB hits that mark (30 FP), it would take a 350-3-0 effort from Patrick Mahomes at 1.05x (28.6 standard FP) to match the 30 multiplier points. That’s why no matter how much I love Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray this week (or any given week), it’s difficult to use them in my primary lineups when Cam, Carr, Taysom, Danny Nickels and Bridgewater could easily surpass that 19-point base threshold (250-2-0) and outscore the ace QBs. I’d rather roster the superstuds in GPP game stacks and balance out with RB/WR/TE in the 1.6x-2x range.
Here are my favorites in each range, in order of preference:
Josh Allen (BUF/1.15x), Patrick Mahomes (KC/1.05x), Justin Herbert (LAC/1.2x)
Cam Newton (NE/1.45x), Teddy Bridgewater (CAR/1.5x), Derek Carr (LV/1.5x), Tom Brady (TB/1.35x)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA/1.75x), Mike Glennon (JAC/2x), Daniel Jones (NYG/1.6x)
As far as who can hit 35 FP in their matchup on Sunday, I’d give Josh Allen the best shot at that. The Chargers will be without CB Casey Hayward, and the path to victory may require more airing the ball out than usual. Cam Newton’s multiplier is incredibly tempting, particularly because of his rushing upside, so he may end up as my preferred choice. Mans makes a great case for Teddy Bridgewater in his cash game article, and #EvenAngrierBrady, in what should be a close and competitive matchup in Tampa, will likely crack my lineups as well. Even Mike Glennon has some appeal because of his multiplier, as even a mere 15 FP would give him 30 with the multiplier – he’s just not a preferred choice.
So much of those slight differences will come where rushing touchdowns vulture red zone pass TD opportunities. As much as I’m interested in Daniel Jones in this matchup, I’m not sure the Bengals can hang with the Giants, and I’d much rather invest in Wayne Gallman and the run game. Though, I would roster Jones in a Giants’ stack over Taysom Hill (1.65x), who has a tougher matchup in Denver.
With the news that Tua Tagovailoa is being downgraded, Fitzpatrick makes a late surge into the running to be my cash game QB at a mere 1.75x. His presence would increase my interest in all the pass-catchers (D.Parker, J.Grant, M.Gesicki).
- Brian Hill (ATL/1.9x) – No Gurley and Hill is more game script agnostic, as he lines up more frequently on pass plays. Raiders serve up fourth-most FP to opposing RBs this season, and Hill is chalk I have no problem absorbing.
- Wayne Gallman (NYG/1.65x) – A touchdown machine with five over his last four games since taking over as the early-down back. Giants are off a bye and facing a depleted defensive line.
- Dalvin Cook (MIN/1x) – Continues to get solid matchups, but with all the value, you’re looking for 30-plus fantasy points from him. The Panthers’ main weakness is stopping the run, and Cook should see his typical workload in a game that should be competitive throughout.
- Derrick Henry (TEN/1.1x) – Hard to not consider the best post-Thanksgiving RB in football. Per Scott Barrett, over the last four seasons, Henry averaged 51 YPG and 4.4 YPC prior to Thanksgiving and 92 YPG and 5.4 YPC after. He also has seven straight road games with 100 or more rushing yards. The Colts will be without three defenders this week, including DeForest Buckner.
- Nick Chubb (CLE/1.2x) – Perfect game script scenario for this beastly runner who has run for at least 100 yards in four-of-five healthy games in 2020. Kareem Hunt does help keep Chubb’s extreme ceiling down, especially since Hunt has been seeing four goal-line carries to Chubb’s zero these last two games.
- Nyheim Hines (IND/1.55x) – Hard to not consider as cash game play with the news that Jonathan Taylor is going on the covid/reserve list. Even Jonathan Wilkins (1.75x) is a consideration, as he’d be seeing more work if the Colts control the game.
- Zack Moss (BUF/1.7x) – Tough to prioritize over Hill or Gallman since he still splits time with Devin Singletary, though Moss has had the slight edge in carries these last three games (30 to 20) along with eight red-zone rushes to Singletary’s two.
- Giovani Bernard (CIN/1.7x) – The Giants are a tough matchup for RBs, but the mustachioed man may be relied upon more than usual with Brandon Allen under center. The Giants are one of the only defenses allowing 50 receiving yards and six receptions per game to opposing backs.
- Matt Breida (MIA/1.85x) – Another possible pivot off the chalky Hill with the rookie Ahmed out and Gaskin possibly not returning yet. All bets are off on Breida if Gaskin does play. Also, be wary of DeAndre Washington getting early-down carries if Gaskin is out.
- Leonard Fournette (TB/1.6x) – Much better multiplier than teammate Ronald Jones II’s (1.35x) and Fournette much more likely to be involved if the Bucs are playing from behind. Chiefs allow 150 yards from scrimmage and seven targets per game to enemy running backs.
Consider for MME Builds: Cam Akers (LAR/1.75x), James White (NE/1.65x), Jordan Wilkins (IND/1.75x)
- Michael Pittman (IND/1.85x)
- Stefon Diggs (BUF/1.3x)
- Justin Jefferson (MIN/1.45x)
- Curtis Samuel (CAR/1.5x)
Pittman is my favorite all-around play at the price. He and Diggs will likely crack my main lineup. With Chargers’ slot corner Chris Jones back, I do believe Cole Beasley (1.55x) will have a tougher time than originally assumed, and I’d expect Diggs to be Allen’s read all game in route to 140-plus yards and at least one touchdown. Jefferson is hard to not consider at this tag with Adam Thielen out, though I’m not sure you’ll see many lineups with both Jefferson and Cook in them despite both being in the winning lineup last week. Samuel is my preferred play with Bridgewater, as Vikings’ CB Jeff Gladney is one of my favorite defenders to target and Minnesota is serving up nearly 17 half-PPR points to enemy slot WRs.
Taking a Stand Against: Keenan Allen (LAC/1.05x), Andy Isabella (ARI/1.85x)
- Calvin Ridley (ATL/1.15x)
- Darius Slayton (NYG/1.45x)
- Nelson Agholor (LV/1.7x)
- DeVante Parker (MIA/1.3x)
- Antonio Brown (TB/1.45x)
- A.J. Brown (TEN/1.3x)
- Tyler Boyd (CIN/1.4x)
- Christian Kirk (ARI/1.45x)
- Jamison Crowder (NYJ/1.35x)
These wideouts will get sprinkled onto my MME teams. Ridley, I’ll use whether Julio plays or not. Slayton is a stand I’m taking, as I believe he will see LeShaun Sims in coverage enough to burn him a few times and top 100 receiving yards on the day. Though both Slayton and Sterling Shepard will be sub-10%, Shep will be a bit more popular. Agholor would be in my core, but I don’t fully trust him, plus I love Ruggs and TE Darren Waller this week. Miami’s Parker would become a priority if Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start.
Boyd is my preferred bring-back on a Danny Nickels’ stack (one decent game, and he’ll be ‘Dimes’ again). Kirk and Crowder are game stack options but less of a priority. Don’t think we can simply expect 100 yards and a TD for Crowder just because Sam Darnold has returned. With Kirk, I’d love to see Coach Kliff move him into the slot and have Isabella line up outside, but we simply wish it into existence.
Cheap GPP Fliers
- Demarcus Robinson (KC/1.9x)
- K.J. Hamler (DEN/2x)
- Gabriel Davis (BUF/1.9x)
- Josh Reynolds (LAR/1.75x)
- Henry Ruggs (LV/1.75x)
- KhaDarel Hodge (CLE/2x)
- Denzel Mims (NYJ/1.8x)
Davis (BUF) and Hamler (DEN) will be the two most popular of the cheap guys, but I’ll primarily run with Ruggs and Reynolds in GPPs this weekend. Ruggs didn’t even see a target until the second half of last game, and I feel there will be a squeaky wheel greased here with a couple of big plays. The Falcons serve up a league-most 16.3 half PPR points to LWR’s, though it’s no longer CB Kendall Sheffield but Darqueze Dennard manning that perimeter. Nevertheless, he’s much slower than Ruggs, and I think he gets run over.
- Darren Waller (LV/1.3x)
- Travis Kelce (KC/1x)
- Hunter Henry (LAC/1.55x)
- Mike Gesicki (MIA/1.55x)
- Jordan Reed (SF/1.95x)
- BONUS – Tyler Eifert (JAC/2x)
I don’t frequently run with the cheap tight end on SuperDraft, but since I’ll be in the 1.5x – 2x range with most of my squad, I’m more comfortable locking in Waller and Kelce. The Falcons allow the most half PPR points to opposing tight ends (13.9). The Falcons are a tough group to run on, so Carr will be deployed in passing duty for most of the game. Reed at 1.95x will be in more lineups for me than Henry and Gesicki, though I like all three this week. Eifert is my sneaky play at the position with Chark and Conley out for the Jaguars. Let’s hope Glennon locks in on him tomorrow as much as he did on Bears’ tight end Zach Miller many moons ago when the two were teammates. I’m going to hopefully find an Eifert touchdown prop and lock it in.
That’ll do it, let’s take it down in Week 12! Gut, out.
Pair this SuperDraft article with our handy dandy Cheat Sheet!