Sick of the big DFS sites? Vlad Sedler walks you through his favorite NFL values on SuperDraft, a site that’s different in all the right ways!!
Welcome to Vlad’s Week 11 SuperDraft Values!
SuperDraft’s Week 10 $20 Red Zone tournament was won in the same way most winning GPP lineups were constructed last weekend: with PIT QB-WR-WR-oppWR (Big Ben + Diontae + Claypool + T.Higgins). The victor (Worstdfsplayer) ended up duplicating the winning lineup, so he or she took down both the first and second place prize ($33,000 total). Enough scratch to make an even ‘worst’ decision this week!
An outlier week in many respects, as ‘lows’ were set across the board. The 221.68 points in the winning lineup were the lowest since we started tracking back in Week 4, as was the case with the 1.46x average multiplier. Not much to bat an eye at, but what was truly interesting were the ownership levels – a shockingly low 43.4 percent total ownership, averaging out at just 5.4 percent per player. D’Andre Swift was the GPP winner’s highest owned player at just 11.3 percent.
Duke Johnson (1.85x) was the highest-owned bust of the slate, finishing with just 9.99 fantasy points at nearly 50 percent ownership. Same with Aaron Jones, who finished with 13.8 points at 28.2 percent. The one that stung me personally was James Conner (1.35x / 7.83 FP / 33.3% own), as I didn’t make the move to late swap him out for the afternoon games. Given that we had six of the 11 games on Sunday’s slate in the late window, it was harder than usual to assess where we would land point-wise and whether late swapping was even necessary for our respective squads.
One tenet remains vitally important. It is imperative we, at the very least, consider and pre-plan late-swap alternatives each and every week. Mostly depending upon how our lineups are doing near the end of the first set of games. Since SuperDraft ownership percentages aren’t readily available now as they are for other sites, we must make our best estimates. Those estimates come primarily from experience playing on SuperDraft and by having an idea of where ownership lies in a given week on both DK and FD. The missing piece of the puzzle to give us some idea of ownership rates on SuperDraft lies primarily in 1) multiplier level and 2) popularity of game stacks, 3) ownership projections on FD and DK.
For example, in Week 11, we can rather logically assume Dalvin Cook will be a popular play (maybe 30 percent-plus?) despite his low 1.05x multiplier. Cook projects for the most fantasy points for any non-QB in every single projection system this week, and he has graced his presence in the optimal lineup a couple of times this month.
Assuming his chalkiness, we could leverage this assumption by making a wise late-swap decision as the first set of games are winding down. If he is your only late-game player, of course, you have him set in your FLEX to give you the ability to swap him out for the RB, WR or TE of your choice. If your GPP lineup has a few early-game holes in it and you want to squeeze out a min-cash, it behooves you to at least consider higher-multiplier, lower-owned (projected) alternatives in one of those late-window games (NYJ-LAC, MIA-DEN, GB-IND, DAL-MIN) this week.
Just to keep in your back pocket, here are a few late-swap options who might fit the bill for us this week:
- MIA/DEN: Jakeem Grant (WR/1.85x), KJ Hamler (WR/2x)
- NYJ/LAC: Mike Williams (WR/1.75x), Denzel Mims (WR/1.8x)
- Note – Kalen Ballage (RB/1.7x) will be chalky
- GB/IND: Nyhiem Hines (RB/1.6x), Michael Pittman (WR/1.85x), Allen Lazard (WR/1.7x)
- DAL/MIN: CeeDee Lamb (WR/1.65x), Dalton Schultz (TE/1.95x)
Of course, this could backfire if Cook has yet another ceiling game by topping 100 yards and finding the end zone a couple of times. But there is always the likelihood he ends up with a middling performance that doesn’t help you at his 1.05x, similar to this Monday night’s game where he didn’t score a touchdown. Say Cook ends up with a line of 17-85-1, 4-30-0, his multiplied fantasy point total is 20.47. Whereas if Chargers’ Williams or Colts’ Pittman finish with a 4-80-1 receiving line, that ends up as 28 points for Williams at 1.75x and 29.6 for Pittman, and it ends up being the right call.
I think you get the idea. Our work doesn’t stop once that 1pm ET / 10am PT Sunday deadline hits. We should be monitoring how our teams are doing, reviewing early-game ownership rates of the teams around us, as well as glancing at total PMR (player minutes remaining). It helps provide us with clues of how popular those four late-window games might be, ownership wise, and how we could use these bits of knowledge to our advantage in terms of making decisions on late swapping players.
WEEK 11 PLAYER POOL
- Taysom Hill, NO (1.8x) – Certainly a risk because a fumble or two early could lead to Winston. But worth taking a stab on SuperDraft since the multiplier is so tantalizing.
- Alex Smith, WAS (1.7x) – Conservative Alex has thrown for most yards last two weeks, is facing a bottom-rung defense, and the game’s pace could be epic. Pair with McLaurin.
- Andy Dalton, DAL (1.55x) – A bit of hope required here too, but price, matchup (poor secondary) and projected game flow lends itself to us giving him a shot. Off a bye is a great thing too.
- P.J. Walker, CAR (1.85x) – In play for cash over Hill if Teddy Bridgewater can’t go.
- Cam Newton, NE (1.35x) – Multiplier decent enough to give strong consideration as primary play. Will be a popular pairing with Jakobi Meyers. Good for cash given his rushing upside.
- Lamar Jackson, BAL (1.1x) – Finally, the game we’ve been waiting for? Tough to take the plunge at this multiplier this week with all cheap options. Because 35 FP may not be enough.
- Justin Herbert, LAC (1.15x) – Provides some rushing upside, and if they take the Mahomes Approach against the Jets (where he threw for over 400 and 5 TD), then Herbert is the slate’s top option. But at this tag, it’s hard to buy in on ‘hope’.
- Duke Johnson, HOU (1.85x)
- Salvon Ahmed, MIA (2x)
- Kalen Ballage, LAC (1.7x)
- Antonio Gibson, WAS (1.5x)
- Giovani Bernard, CIN (1.7x)
The top three guys should be relatively chalky this week, given their multipliers and projected usage. Some might feel like Duke burned them last week, but he will continue to assume the bell cow role in a better game script with a slower pace and more running. Ahmed popped up onto the scene last week but a bit different of a story in Week 11 with Matt Breida expected back. Though, it is fair to assume Ahmed will carry the early-down load with Breida as the change-of-pace. Ballage might end up the most popular of the three, given projected workload and game script. It’s honestly hard to imagine him not finding his way into the end zone at least once.
Gibson may not play on third downs, but he either touches the ball or gets a target on 50 percent of his snaps this season. Taking on a porous Bengals’ defensive-line could work out great for him if WFT takes control early.
- Dalvin Cook, MIN (1.05x)
- Miles Sanders, PHI (1.35x)
Yes, Cook has slate-breaking upside, but it’s less viable at 1.05x when we have such great values beyond the 1.5x mark. He would need 200+ all-purpose yards and a couple of touchdowns to land on the optimal lineup. Sanders is a nice pivot at better price point. Super explosive and taking on a defense that will be without their star, Myles Garrett.
Others to consider: J.D. McKissic, WAS (1.65x), Nick Chubb, CLE (1.2x), Mike Davis, CAR (1.35x)
RISKY but SNEAKY: Jonathan Taylor, IND (1.35x) – No one in their right mind would consider him, and I wouldn’t go here unless I’m building 150 lineups in the optimizer. Gut feel, he is given the chance to run the ball. The matchup against the Packers, who allow the third-most FP to backs (28.6), is perfect.
- Terry McLaurin, WAS (1.4x) – Chalky almost every week, given his target share and air yards, but note that both are 25% down with the conservative Smith at the helm. Fine for cash though.
- Jakobi Meyers, NE (1.65x) – Better for full PPR sites but in play at this multiplier as Newton’s favorite target. He’s averaged over 10 per game over their last three.
- KJ Hamler, DEN (2x) – Favorite min-salary guy with high potential of game script portending to the Broncos chasing points through the air. The Dolphins’ perimeter defenders are so good that they typically funnel passes through the middle where Hamler does most of his damage. Miami allows nearly 10 targets and over 70 yards to slot receivers this season.
- Diontae Johnson, PIT (1.45x) – Hard to differentiate between these guys each week, but Diontae has seen double-digit targets in five of the six games he’s been healthy for and the Jags’ pass defense is truly putrid.
- Michael Pittman, IND (1.85x) – Feel like this game will fly under the radar, but I do expect double-digit ownership on SD for Pittman, as he is finally healthy and appears to be establishing himself as the alpha wideout on the Colts. Caught 7-of-8 targets for 101 yards last week.
- Mike Williams, LAC (1.75x) – Could pay off easily with a couple of big catches. The Jets’ secondary is the easiest spot to attack and even more so now after they just released their interceptions leader, Pierre Desir.
Others to consider between 1x and 1.5x:
- Brandin Cooks, HOU (1.5x)
- Justin Jefferson, MIN (1.45x)
- DJ Moore, CAR (1.35x)
- Michael Thomas, NO (1.2x)
- Tyler Boyd, CIN (1.4x)
Others to consider between 1.55x and 2x:
- Marvin Jones, DET (1.6x)
- Marquise Brown, BAL (1.65x)
- Michael Gallup, DAL (1.55x)
- CeeDee Lamb, DAL (1.65x)
- Jalen Reagor, PHI (1.8x)
- Dalton Schultz, DAL (1.95x) – Will have a lot of Schultz at this multiplier, especially on my Dalton stacks and very likely in cash.
- Dallas Goedert, PHI (1.4x) – Back to the well on him at a very reasonable price; good for cash.
- Mark Andrews, BAL (1x) – Don’t love price, but if playing with Lamar, go 1.6-2x everywhere else.
- Logan Thomas, WAS (1.7x) – Continues to be priced way too affordably. Has 50 yards or a touchdown in three of his last four.
- Jared Cook, NO (1.55x) – Off radar coming off a zero but is still a red-zone target and has four touchdowns this season.
- Irv Smith Jr., MIN (2x) – He’s questionable, so make sure he’s active. If so, a very sneaky play at min salary and the Cowboys are bottom-five against opposing tight ends. Kyle Rudolph is less enticing at 1.6x.
MME (Mass-Multi Entry) STACK IDEAS
Patriots – Texans
QB Cam Newton (1.35x)
+ WR Jakobi Meyers (1.65x)
+ bring-back WR Brandin Cooks (1.5x) or RB Duke Johnson (1.85x)
Jets – Chargers
QB Justin Herbert (1.15x)
+ WR Keenan Allen (1.2x) or WR Mike Williams (1.75x)
+ bring-back WR Jamison Crowder (1.35x)
Cowboys – Vikings
QB Andy Dalton (1.55x)
+ two of WR Michael Gallup (1.55x), WR CeeDee Lamb (1.65x), TE Dalton Schultz (1.95x)
+ one of RB Dalvin Cook (1.05x) or WR Justin Jefferson (1.45x)
Packers – Colts
QB Philip Rivers (1.4x)
+ WR Michael Pittman (1.85x)
+ RB Aaron Jones (1.1x) or WR Allen Lazard (1.7x)
Bengals – WFT
QB Alex Smith (1.7x) or QB Joe Burrow (1.4x)
+ WR Terry McLaurin (1.4x)
+ WR Tyler Boyd (1.4x)
– On Smith stacks, consider J.D. McKissic (1.65x)
– On Burrow stacks, consider bring-back RB Antonio Gibson (1.5x)
Let’s take it down in Week 11! Gut, out.
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