While the masses are giving their undivided attention to the same old million dollar dreams on the big sites, we’re shifting much of our focus towards the user-friendly site and fish-filled pools over on SuperDraft.
For the 2020 NFL season, I’ll be providing you with SuperDraft-specific content each and every week: weekly projections loaded into our optimizer, a cheat sheet every Wednesday, and a detailed breakdown of my top plays that will drop on Fridays.
New users get a 50% deposit bonus (up to $600) by using promo code “Elite” on www.superdraft.io
Here’s another look at my SuperDraft cheatsheet for week 9:
Let’s get into my top plays and fades…
- Drew Lock (DEN) 1.65x – The Falcons are allowing a league-high 29 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Lock has shown a propensity for targeting his tight ends, another position which Atlanta allows more fantasy points per game to than anyone in the league. Tim Patrick is due back for Denver this week, giving Lock another weapon on the outside.
- Matthew Stafford (DET) 1.35x – Stafford should be cleared to play on Sunday and despite not having Kenny Golladay at his disposal, the timing of this matchup couldn’t be better for the Detroit pass game. Four of Minnesota’s top five cornerbacks could be out of action this week. For a team that was already bad against the pass, this is shaping up to be a disastrous situation for the Vikings.
- Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 1.3x – I have the Steelers projected to score 38 points…the highest total of the week. With Sean Lee and Leighton Vander Esch back in the lineup, the Dallas run defense gets a much needed jolt. Roethlisberger again has his full compliment of pass catchers available. The Cowboys are going to have their hands full with this pass game.
- James Robinson (JAX) 1.4x – The Texans continue to let opposing running backs turnstile them week after week. James Robinson is one of the few bell cow backs left in football, and he should get even more work this week with a rookie QB making his professional debut in front of him.
- Dalvin Cook (MIN) 1.15x – The Lions are not far behind Houston in terms of what they’re allowing to opposing rushers. Dalvin Cook showed zero ill effects from his groin injury in week eight, touching the ball 32 times and gaining 226 yards and 4 touchdowns in the process. The matchup this week doesn’t get much better, and even with a minimal multiplier, Cook is a top play for me on Sunday.
- D’Andre Swift (DET) 1.6x – While I do prefer the Lions QB/WR’s this week, it’s tough to ignore the rookie Swift with a 60% multiplier. Kenny Golladay is out, which should open up some more targets in the pass game, and possibly some more reliance on the run game. Swift has gotten into the end zone 4 times in his last four games and should be in store for a bounce back after last week’s disaster against Indy.
- Marvin Jones (DET) 1.85x – It was Marvin Hall that paced Detroit in receiving yards in week eight, but Jones received just as many targets, and got into the end zone twice. Jones should step into the WR1 role with Golladay out. With a 1.85x multiplier in what is a great matchup, Jones seems like a no-brainer to me this week.
- Allen Robinson (CHI) 1.4x – No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than Tennessee over the past four weeks. Only Stefon Diggs has been targeted more in 2020. Robinson also ranks in the top-10 in both catches and receiving yards. Consider Robinson a high floor play with major upside at 1.4x.
- Terry McLaurin (WAS) 1.55x – McLaurin has caught 14-of-23 targets in the two full games Kyle Allen has played in 2020. He’s the clear top option for an offense that has the fifth-fewest rushing attempts league wide. The Giants will try to counter with James Bradberry, but McLaurin will have plenty of action in the slot, too. There, he’s likely to be matched up with rookie Darnay Holmes, whose 45.9 coverage grade on PFF ranks him towards the bottom of the league.
- Noah Fant (DEN) 1.4x – Fant managed to catch 7-of-9 targets despite clearly not being fully recovered from his ankle injury. He should continue to recover as the weeks go on, though, and has arguably become the top pass catching option for quarterback Drew Lock; you couldn’t ask for a better matchup for these two.
- Hayden Hurst (ATL) 1.7x – Hurst has surprisingly been pretty consistent with Atlanta in 2020. He’s gone over 50 yards in four of his last five (5 of 7). The 1.7x multiplier puts him into cash game consideration, but also gives him big upside with Calvin Ridley looking likely to miss this week’s home matchup against the Broncos.
- Jimmy Graham (CHI) 1.65x – After opening the season with 4 touchdowns in five games, Graham has gone scoreless in his last three. He’s still averaging 7 targets in those games, though, and that’s been with Cole Kmet slowly cutting into his workload. Kmet didn’t practice on Thursday and should be considered questionable for Sunday’s game, which would open up a full compliment of snaps/routes for Graham.
- Deshaun Watson (HOU) 1.2x – Four straight games of 300+ yards for Watson in an otherwise lifeless offense. Houston plays the second of their games against the Jaguars on Sunday. Watson threw for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns in their first meeting. 1.2x isn’t a multiplier I’d be looking at for GPP’s, but Watson offers one of the best floors in football.
- Justin Herbert (LAC) 1.25x – Speaking of large floors, Herbert has thrown for at least 260 yards and 3 touchdowns in four straight. The Chargers seem to have given up on running the ball in recent weeks. With Joshua Kelley, Justin Jackson, and Troymaine Pope all failing to impress, L.A. has averaged 40 pass attempts in their last three games.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) 1.05x – Mahomes has tossed 21 touchdowns in 2020 thus far. More impressively, though, just 1 interception. The Panthers have been fairly good against the pass, so I’m not leaping at the chance to use Mahomes at just a 1.05x on SuperDraft, but you also don’t want to discount the generally stable floor of 200+ yards and multiple touchdowns.
- James Conner (PIT) 1.35x – Conner received 15 of Pittsburgh’s 16 carries in week eight. He is one of the rare bellcow backs in today’s NFL. As 14 point favorites, the Steelers could certainly lean on their running back a bit more here. The workload combined with a 35% multiplier makes Conner a strong cash option.
- David Johnson (HOU) 1.4x – Johnson handled 75% of carries for Houston their last time out. Again, we’re looking for “safe” plays for our cash game lineups. Johnson is sure to see double digit carries, and possibly approaches 20 of them as Houston enters Sunday’s matchup as a 7 point favorite.
- Chase Edmonds (ARI) 1.45x – Kenyan Drake still hasn’t practiced. He should be out on Sunday, paving the way for Edmonds to handle both the carries and passing down work. Miami is allowing 4.96 yards per carry to opposing backs thus far; Edmonds is an elite option for cash and GPP lineups alike.
- Stefon Diggs (BUF) 1.3x – Diggs is leading the league in targets, and he’s got arguably the best matchup he’s had all season against an atrocious Seattle secondary. Atlanta ranks No. 31 against wide receivers, allowing 211 yards per game through the air to the position. Seattle ranks No. 32, shattering the Atlanta mark; the Seahawks allow a remarkable 269 yards per game to the WR position.
- Adam Thielen (MIN) 1.35x – With Dalvin Cook shouldering the load due to strong winds in Green Bay last week, the Vikings attempted just 14 passes. Minnesota is back at home in the dome this week, so you can expect the passing volume to increase. Thielen’s 7 receiving touchdowns rank him No. 2, behind only Davante Adams.
- Keenan Allen (LAC) 1.35x – Allen has a low of 9.9 half PPR fantasy points in each of his last six games…7 or more catches in five of those six. He’ll see Lamarcus Joyner in the slot this week against the Raiders, which is a big matchup advantage for Allen; Joyner has a 48.5 coverage grade per Pro Football Focus, which ranks him No. 92 of 117 eligible corners.
- T.J. Hockenson (DET) 1.25x – T.J. Hockenson has been a top-12 tight end in all seven games he’s played in 2020, and now an additional 6+ targets per game are up for grabs with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup. I’m probably not looking at Hockenson’s 1.25x multiplier in GPP’s, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a better floor for cash games.
- Travis Kelce (KC) 1x – At the halfway point of the season, Kelce is on track for 136 targets, 96 catches, 1,220 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He’s essentially a WR1 playing the tight end position. I won’t touch him in GPP’s at 1x, but his weekly floor + upside make him perfectly viable for cash games.
- Hunter Henry (LAC) 1.5x – There were 30mph winds helping their cause against the Browns last week, but in their previous two games, the Raiders allowed Gronkowski to go for 5-62-1, and Kelce to go for 8-108-1. Henry is next in line. He hasn’t displayed an extremely high floor since Herbert took over, but I have to think it only gets better for Henry from here, as he has been targeted 19 times by Herbert in his last three; the volume is there.
- Jake Luton (JAX) 2x – Luton has a big arm coming out of Oregon State, so although you shouldn’t be surprised to see the Jags rely more on James Robinson on Sunday, I’d also expect some deep shots to D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault, too. Connect on a couple of those at 2x and you could have yourself a GPP winner here.
- Nick Foles (CHI) 1.55x – Foles is a guy that will throw the ball 40 times per game, pile up the yardage, and hopefully connect on a couple touchdowns. He’s also a guy with a 55% multiplier, a great matchup, and very low tournament ownership.
- Kyle Allen (WAS) 1.65x – I don’t expect many fireworks to come from this game on Sunday, but we’ve got to consider Allen at 1.65x after he just got done putting up 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this same Giants team in week six.
- DeeJay Dallas (SEA) 1.9x – I have to admit that I’m not as high on Dallas with Travis Homer now healthy and a newly signed Alex Collins likely to cut into the backfield work some. This doesn’t take away from the fact that Buffalo’s defense cannot stop the run…like…at all. Keep an eye on any news hinting at which of these backs will get the most work on Sunday, because whoever that is will be very valuable.
- David Montgomery (CHI) 1.45x – Tennessee’s defense has been sneaky bad to this point. Montgomery hasn’t been great himself, but the volume has definitely been there since Tarik Cohen went onto IR. Only two running backs have run more pass routes than Montgomery in 2020. He’s going to plug a couple of touchdowns in one of these weeks.
- Antonio Gibson (WAS) 1.6x – Gibson handled a season high 20 carries against Dallas in week seven, and he responded by toting the ball for 6.4 yards per carry and recorded his first 100-yard game. As 2.5 point favorites this week against the Giants, you’ve got to expect the Football Team to see if they can continue to ride the hot hand here.
- Justin Jefferson (MIN) 1.5x – I’ve been asked the question numerous times in chat this season…Thielen or Jefferson? My answer is usually the same: Thielen in cash, Jefferson in GPP. The rookie has two games of 30+ fantasy points in his last five. He can absolutely crush with the right matchup.
- Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 1.7x – News came down today that Tim Patrick is likely to return on Sunday, so that takes some of the luster off of Jeudy. The rookie had a season high in both targets and receiving yards last week, and has a nutty matchup against the Falcons on Sunday. If he’s trending up and can exceed his 4-73 performance from a week ago, that 1.7x multiplier will put him into the top tier at WR this week.
- Marquise Brown (BAL) 1.65x – I feel it in my bones. This is the week. The Colts are allowing less than 4 yards per carry to opposing backs. The generally run-heavy Ravens should be forced to turn to the pass at some point on Sunday. With Brown getting some attention this week for complaining about his lack of usage in this offense, this has the looks of the squeaky wheel getting grease on Sunday.
- Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN) 2x – Noah Fant’s ankle seemed to have been feeling much better last week, and Okwuegbunam was on the field for just 16 snaps, although his lone catch was a touchdown. I’m not sure how much we can expect out of Albert O. on Sunday, but the Falcons are allowing more fantasy points to the tight end position than any team in football.
- Jordan Akins (HOU) 1.85x – Akins returns to the Texans lineup this week as a much needed upgrade over Darren Fells for this offense. Playing in an offense that is throwing the ball over 300 yards just about every week, Akins does offer the occasional double digit fantasy point game every once in awhile. If we get something like that against this awful Jaguars defense on Sunday, that 1.85x multiplier likely makes him a top-5 play at the position.
- Eric Ebron (PIT) 1.65x – I want all the Steelers I can get this week in GPP’s. Ebron has 5+ targets, 4+ catches, and 40+ yards in four of his last five games. I think those are the baseline for where he ends up this week against a brutal Dallas pass defense.
- Josh Allen (BUF) 1.1x – I love Allen’s matchup, but if you’re going to give me 10% more of whatever Deshaun Watson is dishing out against Jacksonville, Allen isn’t even on my radar on this site.
- Russell Wilson (SEA) 1x – 1x just doesn’t cut it for me at quarterback.
- Kyler Murray (ARI) 1x – Another guy in a great spot with an unfortunate multiplier.
- Derrick Henry (TEN) 1x – I won’t have much exposure to the Tennessee offense in general this week…especially not at 1x.
- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 1.2x – Zeke is banged up and may not play. This is a nightmare matchup for him anyways.
- Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 1x – McCaffrey is back, and he’s got a great matchup, but I’m not going to roll him right out there in his first game back at 1x.
- D.K. Metcalf (SEA) 1.1x – Tre White will have a big test on Sunday. I’m not sure he can totally eliminate Metcalf, but he should be able to slow him down. 1.1x isn’t enough of a multiplier for me to risk it.
- DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 1x – Miami corners are actually good. The 1x tag is not good. Pass.
- A.J. Brown (TEN) 1.35x – Tough matchup against a Bears defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers.
- Trey Burton (IND) 1.85x – He may be on the brink of having a breakout year in Indianapolis, but he’s really just had one big week, so we need to hit the brakes a bit.
- Dalton Schultz (DAL) 1.95x – The Steelers are allowing just 4.14 fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Horrendous matchup for a guy that isn’t getting the volume anymore since Dak went down.
- Mark Andrews (BAL) 1.15x – Andrews is too touchdown dependent for me. He’s splitting work with Boyle as the pass catching option in the middle of the field for Jackson. I need a higher multiplier to get me excited about this guy.
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