While the masses are giving their undivided attention to the same old million dollar dreams on the big sites, we’re shifting much of our focus towards the user-friendly site and fish-filled pools over on SuperDraft.
For the 2020 NFL season, I’ll be providing you with SuperDraft-specific content each and every week: weekly projections loaded into our optimizer, a cheat sheet every Wednesday, and a detailed breakdown of my top plays that will drop on Fridays.
New users get a 50% deposit bonus (up to $600) by using promo code “Elite” on www.superdraft.io
Here’s another look at my SuperDraft cheatsheet for week 4:
Let’s get into my top plays and fades…
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) 1.65x – Fitzpatrick seems to be the darling of the DFS community this week, and why wouldn’t he be? The Seahawks have allowed 400+ passing yards more than 30 of the other 31 NFL teams; over 200 yards more than the No. 31 ranked Atlanta Falcons. At 1.65x Fitzpatrick should be your highest owned quarterback, and it’s not even close.
- Joe Burrow (CIN) 1.65x – The same multiplier here for the rookie. Burrow has performed admirably thus far and should have no trouble carving up a Jaguars defense that’s allowed an 80% completion rate to opponents this season.
- Baker Mayfield (CLE) 1.5x – Dallas ranks No. 30 league wide in points against. While the Browns would probably like to run the ball, the Cowboys are also averaging nearly 30 points per game on offense, so Cleveland may be forced into a shootout here.
- James Robinson (JAX) 1.65x – Robinson played just 45% of the snaps in last week’s loss to the Dolphins. Although he managed 2 scores, he carried the ball just 11 times. Robinson will be very game script dependent this season, but I don’t see the Bengals running away with this one, which should keep Robinson running.
- Carlos Hyde (SEA) 1.7x – I put Hyde into my top plays on Wednesday when it looked like Chris Carson probably wouldn’t play after that nasty ankle turn last week. Well, Carson is practicing, so this one may be off of the table. Keep an eye on the injury report. If for some reason Hyde (who’s also banged up) gets the start, I like the spot this week against Miami.
- Darrell Henderson (LAR) 1.75x – Cam Akers won’t play again. Malcolm Brown had surgery on his finger less than two weeks ago, and frankly, Henderson has made a case for Brown taking a backseat even if healthy. The Rams play the Giants this week, setting the table nicely for Henderson to have a breakout-type performance, at a juicy 1.75x multiplier.
- Keenan Allen (LAC) 1.45x – Mike Williams seems likely to miss this one, so Herbert will continue to lock in on Allen against the Bucs in week 4. In just two starts for Justin Herbert, Allen has been targeted an astounding 29 times; he’s averaging 9 catches and 116 yards in those games.
- Justin Jefferson (MIN) 1.75x – Jefferson broke out in convincing fashion on Sunday, going for 7-175-1. He’s appeared to secure the Stefon Diggs role as Robin to Adam Thielen’s Batman. I’d expect Minnesota to go run-heavy against a horrible Texan defensive line, but the 1.75x multiplier more than makes up for the lack of heavy volume Jefferson would receive.
- Cooper Kupp (LAR) 1.35x – Kupp and the Rams should slaughter the New York Giants in L.A. this Sunday. Kupp has been settling in this season, improving his output from 40 yards in week one, to 80 week two, and finally got himself over the century mark against Buffalo in week three (9-107-1).
- Mike Gesicki (MIA) 1.55x – Seattle will be without Jamal Adams this week. The also have a slew of linebackers and safeties with the questionable tag…Jordyn Brooks and Lano Hill to name a couple. The Dolphins outside receivers are going to be popular in GPP’s this week, but it’s probably Gesicki that I like the most.
- Hunter Henry (LAC) 1.5x – Henry has been a consistent fantasy performer for the Chargers thus far, with games of 5 catches for 73 yards, 6-for-83, and 5-for-50 in his first three. Couple those numbers with a 1.5x multiplier, and if Henry can get into the end zone this week, he’s going to crush.
- T.J. Hockenson (DET) 1.65x – Although I love Kenny Golladay in this matchup, don’t write off Hockenson, either. The Iowa product has had similar consistency to that of Hunter Henry, going 5-56-1, 4-for-62, and 4-for-53 in the first three games of the season. Get him into the end zone with that 1.65x multiplier and there’s a good chance he winds up as one of the highest scoring tight ends on the slate.
- Dak Prescott (DAL) 1.25x – Now we move into what I deem “cash only” plays. These are generally guys with massive floors, but low multipliers. I’m not using a 1.25x in my GPP pool for the most part. But Prescott is averaging almost 400 yards passing per game thus far. Even a downtick would still result in a solid fantasy day.
- Josh Allen (BUF) 1.2x – Again, Allen is beasting at the moment. If he’s not putting up points through the air, he’s using his legs to move the ball. 1.2x isn’t necessarily a number I would want to target in GPP’s, but for cash games, his floor should be safe enough to get you over the hump at QB.
- Kyler Murray (ARI) 1.2x – Same idea here. We know Murray is going to put up points. Air or ground. You gotta love the matchup against Carolina, just not so in love with the 1.2x multiplier on this site. Keep Murray to cash lineups.
- Alvin Kamara (NO) 1.15x – Michael Thomas could be back this week, but how effective will he be? Drew Brees can’t seem to throw a ball more than 20 yards right now, so the dump-offs should continue to Kamara.
- Dalvin Cook (MIN) 1.2x – Houston has been getting torched by opposing running backs thus far. Cook has been effective, but we’re still waiting for that massive slate-breaking game. This is as good as any matchup for that outcome.
- Mike Davis (CAR) 1.6x – I’m not crazy about Davis in half-PPR GPP lineups, but with a 1.6x multiplier, he should provide you with enough floor, and he’s certainly got touchdown upside as the clear RB1 and Christian McCaffrey replacement in Carolina.
- Tyler Lockett (SEA) 1.15x – The Dolphins wideouts are all the rage this week, but on the other side of the field, Lockett and Metcalf could also be in for huge fantasy performances once again. Byron Jones is doubtful once again, and the slot corner Jamal Perry is way out of his league here against Lockett.
- Stefon Diggs (BUF) 1.4x – We were all worried about Diggs upside this season with Josh Allen at the helm, but those concerns have been quashed. Diggs is locked and loaded as a WR1 each and every week in this offense, and has a plus matchup against the Raiders inexperienced secondary on Sunday.
- Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) 1.4x – I think it will be an on-again, off-again relationship between OBJ and my fantasy lineups this season. This week he’s on again, in a potential shootout against the Cowboys.
- Dalton Schultz (DAL) 2x – Schultz is getting consistent targets from Dak Prescott since taking over for Blake Jarwin. 13 catches, 136 yards, and a touchdown in his last two games, I’m surprised to see his multiplier is still at max.
- Logan Thomas (WAS) 2x – Thomas has been the second-highest targeted pass catcher for this Football Team…from Washington. Terry McLaurin is banged up and very questionable for week 4’s matchup against Baltimore. It’s a nightmare matchup, but Thomas should see a lot of targets and his 2x multiplier only helps solidify the floor.
- Darren Waller (LV) 1.2x – Waller was removed from the equation by Bill Belichick’s defense in week 3. His knee may still be a lingering issue, but with Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards both out again, Waller should rebound nicely against a Bills team that generally struggles against tight ends.
- Matthew Stafford (DET) 1.5x – I am cramming a ton of Stafford and Golladay into lineups on all sites this week. New Orleans looks like they’ll be without Marshon Lattimore, or at the very least he’ll be hampered with an apparent mid-week hamstring issue. Janoris Jenkins is also dealing with a shoulder issue, so this looks like a nice spot for Stafford and his pass catchers.
- Justin Herbert (LAC) 1.75x – Herbert has back-to-back 300+ yard passing games. Tampa Bay is not the best matchup for the rookie, but this offense is set up perfect for him, with Allen, Henry, and Ekeler all giving him easy outs on most drop backs.
- Jared Goff (LAR) 1.45x – I had trouble filling in this last spot, but Goff makes the cut for me against an atrocious Giants defense. Goff is completing 70% of his throws, and has 6 total touchdowns in his last two against Buffalo and Philadelphia. So many weapons for Goff to throw to. My only concern is how much will he actually need to throw in this one?
- Myles Gaskin (MIA) 1.9x – Gaskin is the clear RB1 for Miami. This is not a great matchup for Gaskin, but he also caught 5 balls last week while playing 75% of snaps. With the 1.9x multiplier, he is an intriguing GPP play with volume for me that could easily sneak into the end zone a time or two.
- Kareem Hunt (CLE) 1.5x – Hunt is dealing with a groin injury, but beat writers do expect him to play. I think the probable game script probably limits Nick Chubb’s upside. This game has the highest total on the slate, so expect Hunt to get a lot of work in the passing game.
- David Montgomery (CHI) 1.65x – Montgomery likely gets a bigger role with Tarik Cohen heading to IR. He had a nice long touchdown catch and run in week two…the tools are there for him. This Indy defense is tough, but a 1.65x multiplier for what is now a bellcow back cannot be ignored.
- Tee Higgins (CIN) 2x – Higgins has suddenly made John Ross expendable, as Ross was made a healthy inactive last week, for a game in which Higgins caught 5 of 9 targets, for 40 yards and 2 touchdowns in his new role. Still with a 2x multiplier, in what has been a pass-heavy offense, Higgins will be one of my top GPP exposures on SuperDraft Sunday.
- D.K. Metcalf (SEA) 1.3x – While Lockett has the better matchup out of the slot, I still like Metcalf against Xavien Howard on the outside. This Seattle offense is so pass heavy right now, and that is not going to change with both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde banged up heading into the weekend.
- Will Fuller (HOU) 1.55x – Fuller missed practice on Thursday, with the dreaded hamstring designation, but all reports indicate he is fine and just had a rest day. This game opened with a 49.5 over/under; it’s up to 54 in some books today. This Viking defense is not good and if Fuller has one of those monster games he musters up a couple of times per season, you’re going to want him in lineups with that 1.55x multiplier.
- Jimmy Graham (CHI) 1.7x – Graham’s 18 targets ranks second on the Bears, behind only Allen Robinson. In one half of football with Nick Foles under center, Graham had 7 targets, caught 4 of them for 48 yards and a touchdown. Simply put, he looks to be a big part of this offense, and although it’s not the best matchup, the 1.7x multiplier gives him serious upside.
- Evan Engram (NYG) 1.45x – We’re still waiting for the Engram of old to return. He’s just not looked the same in 2020. He did have a nice 6-for-65 yard outing against Chicago in week two, but he was all but shut down by both Pittsburgh and San Francisco. The Bills backup TE Tyler Kroft just got done catching a pair of touchdowns against this week’s opponent, the LA Rams; there is hope for Engram this week.
Jared Cook (NO) 1.7xAdam Trautman (NO) 2x – Jared Cook is out. Trautman was a third round pick and has flashed some pass catching ability early on this season. With Michael Thomas out again and Cook out…this opens a big window for Trautman.
- Russell Wilson (SEA) 1x – Stay away from the 1x guys.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) 1.1x – This seems like a big day for Ravens running backs. With just 1.1x, I’ll pass on Lamar.
- Drew Brees (NO) 1.25x – Brees has not shown any semblance of his former self this season; I’m not touching him right now, especially at only 1.25x.
- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 1x – Elliott is your 1x running back this week. With Dallas passing the ball so much, this play makes no sense at 1x.
- Rex Burkhead (NE) 1.8x – James White is back in the lineup. Damien Harris is off of IR. Burkhead simply isn’t likely to get nearly the same amount of work as he had in last week’s big performance.
- Kenyan Drake (ARI) 1.35x – Drake has really disappointed me in 2020. The Cardinals seem to be heading towards an even split between an underachieving Drake, and the pass-catching specialist Chase Edmonds.
- Tyreek Hill (KC) 1x – Hill is 1x, and is up against a tough New England secondary.
- Michael Thomas (NO) 1.1x – Thomas is officially out for Sunday’s week 4 matchup with Detroit. Make sure you’re not using him.
- Cedrick Wilson (DAL) 1.75x – Similar to Nyheim Hines in week 1, this was likely nothing more than a one-hit wonder for Wilson. I’d be very surprised if he comes close to the numbers he hit against Seattle last week.
- Travis Kelce (KC) 1x – Same as Hill. Tough defense. No multiplier. No thanks.
- Mark Andrews (BAL) 1.1x – I don’t see the Ravens throwing the ball all that much in this one to start with, but the 1.1x just doesn’t do it for me anyways.
- Austin Hooper (CLE) 1.4x – Hooper is just not a big part of this offense right now. I’m not sure I’d want anything to do with him if he was a 2x guy this week, 1.4x isn’t going to cut it.
Follow me on Twitter @RyanClifford