While the masses are giving their undivided attention to the same old million dollar dreams on the big sites, we’re shifting much of our focus towards the user-friendly site and fish-filled pools over on SuperDraft.
For the 2020 NFL season, I’ll be providing you with SuperDraft-specific content each and every week: weekly projections loaded into our optimizer, a cheat sheet every Wednesday, and a detailed breakdown of my top plays that will drop on Fridays.
New users get a 50% deposit bonus (up to $600) by using promo code “Elite” on www.superdraft.io
Here’s another look at my SuperDraft cheatsheet for week 10:
Let’s get into my top plays and fades…
- Jared Goff (LAR) 1.25x – Seattle is allowing 372.5 passing yards per game at the midway point of 2020. Goff has plenty of weapons available and should have no problem reaching the 300-yard bonus on Sunday.
- Aaron Rodgers (GB) 1.2x – Only Atlanta and Seattle are allowing more fantasy points per game than Jacksonville does to opposing quarterbacks. Rodgers has thrown for at least 280 yards and 3 touchdowns in all three games since Davante Adams returned.
- Alex Smith (WAS) 1.8x – It was checkdown city, but Smith piled up 325 passing yards in three quarters of work against the Giants last week. The Washington team does not seem to want to run the football, so Smith should see plenty of dropbacks again versus the Lions on Sunday.
- Antonio Gibson (WAS) 1.6x – The Lions run defense has been nonexistent, too, so something has to give this week. I can’t imagine the Redskins won’t try to lean heavily on Gibson to move the ball on early downs. I think there will be plenty of offense to go around, so I don’t mind doubling up on Smith and Gibson this week at 1.8 and 1.6x.
- Nick Chubb (CLE) 1.3x – Chubb will return from a 5-week absence. He’s practicing without a brace, suggesting all is well after spraining his MCL back in week four. First up for Chubb…the Houston Texans. The matchup doesn’t get much better than this; I’m perfectly willing to sacrifice a few “points” on the multiplier to get Chubb’s upside into SuperDraft lineups this week.
- Duke Johnson (HOU) 1.85x – David Johnson doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for Sunday’s matchup with the Browns. Duke will become an every down option for Houston and should approach 25 touches this week at 1.85x. This is as close to a lock as it gets in week 10.
- Cooper Kupp (LAR) 1.45x – As noted above, the Rams passing attack has a nutty matchup on Sunday with the lowly Seahawk secondary; Seattle has allowed the second-most fantasy points to slot receivers in 2020. Kupp saw 20 targets from Goff in week eight against the Dolphins, look for him to get fed once again.
- Terry McLaurin (WAS) 1.45x – McLaurin is coming off of his third 100+ yard receiving game of the season, which should squash any concerns about Alex Smith hindering his upside. McLaurin will likely get shadow coverage from Desmond Trufant, who is allowing 0.74 fantasy points per route run in 2020; only five corners are allowing more.
- Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 1.7x – With 24 targets in his last two games, the rookie Jeudy has established himself as the clear WR1 in Denver. He had a breakout of sorts against the Falcons last week, finishing with 7-125-1; the first 100-yard game of his career. Jeudy’s YPC average ranks in the league’s top 10, while only four teams are allowing more yards per reception than the Raiders…this is a nice looking matchup for Jeudy and his 1.7x.
- Eric Ebron (PIT) 1.6x – Only the Falcons are allowing more fantasy points to the tight end position than Cincinnati. Ebron has double digit fantasy points in three straight, and his 60% multiplier puts him into the top tier at the position this week.
- Austin Hooper (CLE) 1.55x – Hooper will return to the lineup after emergency appendicitis surgery put him on the shelf since week six. Before he left the lineup, Hooper had been targeted 23 times in three games, and should only see his workload increase since Odell Beckham Jr. is no longer in the lineup.
- Noah Fant (DEN) 1.4x – Albert O’s season is done with a torn ACL. This is huge for Fant’s fantasy stock, as Okwuegbunam had been getting a lot of looks from Lock in the red zone. The biggest risk with Fant is a lingering ankle injury that briefly forced him from last week’s game with Atlanta.
- Deshaun Watson (HOU) 1.2x – Ol’ faithful. Watson has passed for 250+ yards in all eight games this season, totaling 18 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. With David Johnson out this week, look for Houston to rely on Watson and the pass game a bit more. I’ve got HOU/CLE projected as the second-highest scoring game of the week.
- Josh Allen (BUF) 1.15x – Allen continues to prove his fantasy upside, throwing for 300+ yards last week for the fifth time this season. The Cardinals haven’t necessarily been bad against the pass, but their high play volume lends itself well to opposing offenses, and Allen can put up big numbers on the ground, as well.
- Joe Burrow (CIN) 1.5x – Burrow is the only quarterback in football attempting more than 40 passes per game in 2020. On volume alone he is in play week in and week out. With a 1.5x multiplier, he becomes one of the safest options on the slate, with big upside despite a…can I say scary…matchup.
- James Robinson (JAX) 1.4x – One of the few true bellcow backs in football, Robinson has 25+ touches in each of his last two games, with a great matchup against a leaky Packers run defense on tap. The multiplier remains solid for the undrafted rookie.
- Aaron Jones (GB) 1.15x – Any thoughts that Jones would be limited upon his return to the lineup were dispelled after the Packers back handled 20 touches in Green Bay’s week nine victory over San Francisco. As 13.5 point home favorites against the Jaguars on Sunday, Jones should get as much work as he can handle, giving him a safe floor despite the low multiplier.
- Miles Sanders (PHI) 1.4x – Sanders declared himself 100% ahead of this Sunday’s game against the Giants. When healthy, he’s a mainstay on the field, forcing Boston Scott back into fantasy irrelevance. He’ll give this Philly rushing attack a much needed boost heading into the second half of the season.
- Davante Adams (GB) 1x – 1x or not, Adams is in play for all formats after accumulating 39 targets, 30 catches, 422 yards, and 6 touchdowns over his last three games. The Jaguars are next up…only the Cowboys are allowing more points against per game.
- Robert Woods (LAR) 1.3x – How many Ram receivers is too many this week? Josh Reynolds is a favorite GPP target of mine, Cooper Kupp has a ton of upside after garnering 20 targets in his last game; but Robert Woods may be the safest bet for a quality fantasy afternoon, with 6 total touchdowns in seven weeks and a pristine matchup against the Seahawks outside corners.
- Keenan Allen (LAC) 1.3x – Allen has eclipsed double digit fantasy points in every game since week one, catching 28 of 36 targets over his last three for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns. With the Dolphins having solid perimeter corners, expect a lot of volume to be funneled into the slot. Allen should be in store for another monster statistical game.
- Darren Waller (LV) 1.15x – Tight end is a wasteland this Sunday, so don’t overlook Waller simply because of his low multiplier. He is essentially the Raiders WR1, leading the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards. Waller has at least 5 catches in all but one game in 2020.
- Hunter Henry (LAC) 1.5x – As I talked about in Allen’s blurb, much of Herbert’s passing volume is likely to be funneled to the middle of the field on Sunday. Keenan Allen will be the main beneficiary, but Henry should see more volume than usual, too. At 1.5x, he provides a nice safe floor with some upside to work with.
- Gerald Everett (LAR) 1.55x – Just when we think we have the Rams tight ends figured out, Gerald Everett throws another wrench into the whole thing. Everett was targeted 9 times by Jared Goff against the Dolphins, behind only Cooper Kupp and over twice as many times as Tyler Higbee. Everett seems to be the TE1 and the Rams seem destined to throw the ball a whole lot once again against Seattle on Sunday.
- Jake Luton (JAX) 1.7x – Luton flashed his arm strength early in his debut with a 76-yard TD throw to D.J. Chark on the game’s first offensive play. He eclipsed 300 yards and will travel to Green Bay where he’s sure to be playing from behind for much of the contest.
- Drew Lock (DEN) 1.6x – Something happens with Drew Lock once the clock turns to the fourth quarter…he’s going to need to deliver in more than just the fourth quarter to be a weekly fantasy contributor. Still, he’s thrown more than 40 times in each of his last three games, so volume alone makes him worth a dart throw at the very least. The 1.6x could become very valuable if his arm starts catching fire earlier than quarter four.
- Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) 1.55x – Christian McCaffrey is out once again for the Panthers, which means more attention to Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, and the upstart Curtis Samuel. Mike Davis also serves as a fine pass catcher out of the backfield, so Bridgewater’s options will be plentiful for this divisional matchup.
- Mike Davis (CAR) 1.4x – Speaking of Davis, he’s back in the McCaffrey role this week, and his multiplier is back up a smidge. Tampa is not an easy matchup by any stretch, but they are allowing over 6.5 catches per game to opposing running backs; only three teams allow more. Davis is averaging nearly 5 receptions per game.
- Zack Moss (BUF) 1.75x – Moss seems to be on track to overtake Devin Singletary as the Bills RB1. He may just be there already, touching the ball over twice as often as Singletary in last week’s pass-fest in Buffalo. The Bills are in Phoenix on Sunday to face the up-tempo Cardinals.
- J.D. McKissic (WAS) 1.75x – McKissic wound up being targeted an astounding 14 times in the pass game last week. We all know Alex Smith loves his check downs, so expect McKissic to continue to pile up the catches against the Lions on Sunday. The 1.75x multiplier helps offset the lack of PPR scoring here.
- Diontae Johnson (PIT) 1.55x – The bad news: Johnson has been limited to just four games uninterrupted by injury in 2020. The good news: he appears to be back to 100%. The even better news: Johnson has been targeted at least 10 times be Big Ben in each of those four games. The Bengals are next up for Pittsburgh.
- Curtis Samuel (CAR) 1.55x – Samuel has exploded with touchdowns in three straight games, culminating in last week’s 9-catch, 105-yard performance against the Chiefs. Like Kansas City, the Buccaneers defensive line gets pressure on the quarterback fast, which should lead to a ton of dump offs from Bridgewater to both Samuel and Mike Davis once again this week.
- Josh Reynolds (LAR) 1.75x – The Seahawks have been historically bad against perimeter receivers this season. This is a motley crew in Seattle, and Reynolds is a just-about-every-down player on the outside for the Rams. With 17 targets in his past two games, he could explode here in this matchup. At 1.75x, the upside is enormous.
- Jordan Reed (SF) 2x – I’m not certain that Reed will out-snap Ross Dwelley, but I would assume that will be the case if he’s healthy. He has been one of the league’s top pass-catching tight ends when healthy, so he could fit right into Kittle’s role in this offense. With a 2x multiplier, you’ve got a whole lot of upside here at a position that stinks otherwise this week.
- Logan Thomas (WAS) 1.85x – 4 or more targets in each and every game this season. Now he gets Alex Smith taking the reigns at quarterback, so it’s certainly reasonable to assume his target volume will increase with Captain Checkdown at the helm.
- Dallas Goedert (PHI) 1.5x – If I told you before the season started that you could roster Dallas Goedert on a week when Zach Ertz was out, for 1.5x against the New York Giants, he would be near lock territory. Unfortunately, Philly’s offense looks a whole lot different these days, and we cannot rely on Goedert for surefire fantasy production any longer. Still, he’s proven his upside and could be worth a look on a week where the tight end position is extremely weak.
- Baker Mayfield (CLE) 1.5x – Nick Chubb returns this week. Cleveland is already a run-first offense, so I don’t expect it to get any better. Not enough volume here.
- Russell Wilson (SEA) 1.1x – Did the Bills provide a blueprint for shutting down this offense? Probably not, but Aaron Donald and the Rams are no easy task and the 1.1x multiplier doesn’t give me enough confidence in the play.
- Kyler Murray (ARI) 1x – Speaking of the Bills, they get Kyler Murray this week. Can they bottle him up like they did Russ? Only time will tell, but for 1x I don’t care to take that risk.
- James Conner (PIT) 1.35x – Conner’s workload is getting smaller with each week. Sure, he’s got a great matchup against Cincinnati, but if he’s not getting any red zone looks, I’m going to need more than a 35% boost to put me onto Conner.
- Alvin Kamara (NO) 1x – The matchup gets a bit easier for Kamara this week, but the multiplier doesn’t. Too many good plays at the position this week for me to force this one.
- Melvin Gordon (DEN) 1.4x – Phillip Lindsay is outplaying Gordon in Denver, and this backfield has reverted to a 50/50 split for the most part. 1.4x is not enough to make up for the lack of volume.
- DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 1.1x – Hopkins will get Tre White in coverage this week. D.K. Metcalf had 100 yards, but he was clearly slowed down by White’s coverage. I need more than 1.1x in this matchup.
- D.K. Metcalf (SEA) 1.2x – Things just are not getting easier for Metcalf. A tough Cardinals perimeter secondary, Tre White, and now a really good Rams defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. He’ll explode one of these weeks, but I don’t see it being this one.
D.J. Chark (JAX) 1.45x– With both Jaire Alexander and Laviska Shenault looking like they won’t play, Chark is coming off of my fade list. I was a bit worried about Alexander’s coverage, but if he’s out Chark could take advantage. Move him to a GPP option.
- Robert Tonyan (GB) 1.35x – Tonyan has become an afterthought since Davante Adams returned to the lineup. He is questionable to play this week. Pass.
- Jared Cook (NO) 1.6x – If Jared Cook couldn’t come up with big fantasy production without Michael Thomas out of the lineup, he’s surely not going to get there with Thomas in the lineup.
- Rob Gronkowski (TB) 1.45x – Too many mouths to feed in this offense could really screw things up. Godwin, Brown, Evans, Gronkowski, Brate, Fournette…how can you trust any of these guys?
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