While the masses are giving their undivided attention to the same old million dollar dreams on the big sites, we’re shifting much of our focus towards the user-friendly site and fish-filled pools over on SuperDraft.
For the 2020 NFL season, I’ll be providing you with SuperDraft-specific content each and every week: weekly projections loaded into our optimizer, a cheat sheet every Wednesday, and a detailed breakdown of my top plays that will drop on Fridays.
New users get a 50% deposit bonus (up to $600) by using promo code “Elite” on www.superdraft.io
Here’s another look at my SuperDraft cheatsheet for week 1:
Let’s get into my top plays and fades…
- Cam Newton (NE) 2x – Newton faces a Miami secondary that looks decent on paper, but both of the Dolphins star corners come into the season banged up; Xavien Howard is still recovering from his 2019 knee issues, while Byron Jones has been hampered with some recent Achilles soreness. “Snap count” has been a term thrown around by Miami head coach Brian Flores in regards to both starting cornerbacks. Even if they are 100% healthy, Julian Edelman should be able to get open at will in the slot. 2x fantasy points for a guy who has finished a season four times as a top-4 QB and appears to be back to full health…sign me up!
- Derek Carr (LV) 1.7x – This game could go one of two ways on offense for the Raiders. Either Josh Jacobs is going to get 25 carries and run all over the Carolina defense, or Derek Carr will get a chance to show off all of his new toys in the pass game. I like this game to shoot out. I like both quarterbacks, but the Panthers are trotting out a corner crew that includes Tony Pride Jr., Donte Jackson, and Rasul Douglas. This defense could be an all-time bad unit, and I want to pick on them now before the masses realize it.
- Kyler Murray (ARI) 1.45x – It may seem counterintuitive to lead with a second-year QB that will be facing what is likely the league’s top defense, but Murray finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in his rookie year, thanks to a high-paced Arizona offense and elite rushing ability from under center. In two games against an equally good Niners defense last season, Murray averaged nearly 200 yards passing, 50 yards rushing, and totaled 5 touchdowns (4 pass, 1 rush). With a healthy Kenyon Drake keeping the secondary honest, and DeAndre Hopkins now in the fold, there’s no reason to think his passing numbers can’t increase in this matchup.
- Josh Jacobs (LV) 1.5x – Again, I believe this Panthers defense is awful. After Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry, I have Jacobs with the highest projected share of his team’s carry volume league wide, with only Jalen Richard and Devontae Booker behind him. I wouldn’t suggest stacking Carr and Jacobs in either cash or GPP lineups, but the former Bama back makes a lot of sense as a standstill option in either format.
- Joe Mixon (CIN) 1.45x – The Chargers are a much better defense against the pass. With a rookie QB taking his first even pro snaps, I’d expect the Bengals to lean on the run game more than usual for a week or two. Tyrod Taylor is under center for the Chargers, so I don’t envision a scenario where L.A. starts to pile up a big lead and forces Cincy to throw the ball. This should be the Mixon show for the Bengals offense in week one.
- Austin Ekeler (LAC) 1.4x – On the other side of this same game, the Chargers could have a rough time trying to throw the ball on Sunday. Mike Williams is deal with a shoulder issue; he’ll likely be limited if he plays. Keenan Allen will have his hands full with William Jackson and Mackenzie Alexander in the slot. The Bengals allowed nearly 2,400 yards on the ground last season – dead last in the NFL.
Kenny Golladay (DET) 1.4xMarvin Jones (DET) 1.8x – While I love the matchup for Golladay against the Bears secondary, it’s being reported that he’s dealing with hamstring issues and is now doubtful to play. Still, I don’t see Detroit running the ball a whole lot between Kerryon Johnson, a banged-up D’Andre Swift, and a newly signed 35-year-old Adrian Peterson. Marvin Jones can be upgraded as a top play for both cash and GPP lineups.
- Julian Edelman (NE) 1.65x – One of the only bright spots on this Miami roster is their secondary…the perimeter guys, at least. Both of them are hurting right now, though, and I’m not even sure Edelman would see coverage from either even if they were healthy. More likely, he’ll see a lot of Bobby McCain or 2020 first round pick Noah Igbinoghene, who will be playing in his first professional game as a 20-year-old rookie. Edelman will be targeted early and often.
- T.Y. Hilton (IND) 1.55x – D.J. Hayden will be glued to Parris Campbell inside, leaving either Tre Herndon or rookie C.J. Henderson on Hilton, a big edge for the Colts offense to exploit. Rivers is seemingly a big upgrade on Jacoby Brissett, and probably the best passer Hilton has had under center since Andrew Luck’s sudden departure. 1.55x is a whole lot of value to offer given the upside.
- Jack Doyle (IND) 1.5x – If the ball doesn’t go to Hilton, Jack Doyle will likely be the beneficiary. Eric Ebron is gone, Trey Burton is out, and Philip Rivers has targeted the tight end more often than anyone in the NFL since 2014 (36.3% of his targets).
- Zach Ertz (PHI) 1.3x – Washington’s defensive strength lies along the line. The Eagles have a banged up group protecting Carson Wentz, so I’d expect the balls to come out quick this week. This is not a favorable situation for burners like DeSean Jackson or Jalen Reagor. Lacking a true slot option, Ertz will pick up a lot of those routes and should be targeted often while running against a soft middle of the field.
- George Kittle (SF) 1.05x – Deebo Samuel is looking unlikely for Sunday, Brandon Aiyuk is a rookie that’s dealing with hamstring issues, and we all remember how Arizona’s defense stacked up against the tight end position in 2019. I’m not generally a fan of guys with low multipliers, but Kittle seems locked into a massive target share in week one.
- Matt Ryan (ATL) 1.5x – Ryan’s multiplier seems quite high for a quarterback who went over 300 yards in all but four games in 2019. He’s throwing to one of the top WR duos in football, against a Seattle team that should be able to keep the score close.
- Russell Wilson (SEA) 1.35x – In a close game, both of these passers should be tossing the ball around a whole lot. I like some of the guys with higher multipliers for GPP lineups, but there are few safer options than Wilson for cash games.
- Matthew Stafford (DET) 1.6x – This is simply a volume-based play. I can’t see Detroit running the ball much, with a depleted RB group facing a Bears defense that allowed just 3.9 yards per carry in 2019. Golladay may be out, but that’s not going to prevent Stafford from chucking that football around.
- Dalvin Cook (MIN) 1.25x – Green Bay had one of the worst run defenses in football a season ago, ranking in the bottom-10 of yards against, yards per carry allowed, and touchdowns allowed. Only three teams ran the football more than the Vikings in 2019, and without any upgrades made to the depth chart behind Cook, expect him to carry the load once again.
Alvin Kamara (NO) 1.25x– I’m reconsidering my stance on Kamara. Mike Evans is looking unlikely to play. I don’t expect Tampa Bay to make much of a game of it here. This could be a heavy Lat Murray week if that’s the case.
- Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 1x – Not a fan of 1x players in GPP’s, but when you’ve got a guy like McCaffrey available for cash games, I don’t mind it at all. There isn’t a safer play at any position.
- Adam Thielen (MIN) 1.5x – He’s the only game in town for Kirk Cousins. Justin Jefferson was a high pick, but he still has a lot to learn. We already know who Bisi Johnson is. With Green Bay not likely to fall behind in this game, the Vikings may be forced to throw the ball more than they’d like. Thielen will be a target machine.
- D.J. Moore (CAR) 1.45x – I like this CAR/LV game to shoot out, and Moore will be a big part of that. He’s got one of the best matchups on the slate according to PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart, going up against Damon Arnette.
- Davante Adams (GB) 1.1x – Again, I’m not usually playing the 1.1x guys in GPP’s, but Adams seems like a sure bet for a cash game lineup. Minnesota’s got a mixed bag of corners in their secondary, but they’re all either really young, or really bad. Adams has 38 catches, 413 yards, and 3 touchdowns in his last five games against the Vikings.
- Mike Gesicki (MIA) 1.65x – I strongly consider Gesicki as one of my top plays at tight end. New England’s corners should have an easy time locking up Parker and Williams. We know the Dolphins will be trailing, so Gesicki is the sensical option for a lot of those targets.
- Darren Waller (LV) 1.35x – You already know I love the shootout potential of LV/CAR, and Waller is arguably the top target for Derek Carr heading into this matchup. He caught 90 balls for over 1,100 yards in 2019, and went over 100 yards in three of his last five games.
- Hunter Henry (LAC) 1.45x – If you remember Tyrod Taylor’s days with the Buffalo Bills, he was incredibly reliant on Charles Clay, the Bills tight end during those years. When Clay was out, Taylor often looked lost, not seeming to possess the confidence to regularly get balls out wide. Henry is one of the top young TE’s in football, so I’d expect him to be Taylor’s safety blanket early on.
- Dwayne Haskins (WAS) 1.8x – This is a big multiplier for a guy who will likely be forced to throw the football a lot on Sunday. I don’t see Antonio Gibson getting a ton of run. In fact, if you look at the Redskin backs, they’re all pass-catchers. Almost like Rivera knew they’d be throwing the ball all the time.
- Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) 1.8x – Of course I’ll have some GPP exposure to Bridgewater. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s got the arm to make proper use of Robby Anderson’s skillset, but with McCaffrey out of the backfield, Curtis Samuel in the slot, and D.J. Moore running intermediate routes, there will be plenty of outlets for the former first-rounder.
- Carson Wentz (PHI) 1.45x – Miles Sanders is dealing with hamstring issues, and seems very questionable for Sunday’s game. Wentz might have no other choice than to throw the ball a lot against the Football Team…from Washington.
- Sony Michel (NE) 1.75x – I haven’t heard anyone talking about Michel this weekend. New England enters as a 6.5-point favorite, nearing 7. Damien Harris is on IR. If this game gets out of hand, Michel will have all of the carries he can handle against what was one of the league’s worst run defenses in 2019.
- Antonio Gibson (WAS) 2x – So, this multiplier was clearly assigned before Washington released Adrian Peterson. Gibson should be the RB1 from here on out. Although I don’t expect him to get 20 carries, I think he could be a big part of the passing game too.
- Raheem Mostert (SF) 1.4x – I’d like to see a bigger multiplier, but in nine games since the Cardinals last saw Mostert, he’s become the unquestioned RB1 in this offense, amassing 760 yards on 123 carries (6.2 ypc) and 13 touchdowns. He’s scored at least once in all but one of those nine games. Big upside with low ownership here.
- Stefon Diggs (BUF) 1.55x – I don’t think many people think Diggs will have quite the impact in Buffalo as he did in Minnesota…but what if he does? He’s got an incredible matchup for his first impression, with the Jets rolling out <checks notes> Pierre Desir and someone called “Blessuan Austin”. Add John Brown to this list, too.
- D.K. Metcalf (SEA) 1.55x – This game could shoot out, too, having one of the highest totals of week one. With Darqueze Dennard shadowing Tyler Lockett, Metcalf looks to be in a good spot whether it be against either rookie A.J. Terrell or Isaiah Oliver in coverage.
- Michael Pittman (IND) 2x – The 6-foot-4 Pittman should be an immediate red zone threat for the Colts and Philip Rivers. He catches everything in sight. Pittman will have almost no ownership, and his 2x multiplier will make for a pretty impressive score if he can get into the end zone in his debut.
- Greg Olsen (SEA) 1.75x – Seahawks tight ends couldn’t stay healthy in 2019, but collectively made quite an impact; combining for 79 catches, 756 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Olsen is reportedly healthy, and could make a big impact for Seattle this season.
- Rob Gronkowski (TB) 1.5x – I’m a little hesitant to play a guy who sat out the entire 2019 season, but he still has developed years of chemistry with Tom Brady. Mike Evans looks to be out on Sunday, meaning Godwin will likely see double coverage, and if that’s the case, Gronk should be set to have a big Bucs debut.
- Hayden Hurst (ATL) 1.7x – Another guy that I haven’t heard much chatter on. Hurst steps into the Austin Hooper role. Let’s not forget Hurst was a first round pick in 2018 that got buried in a deep Ravens TE room. I like this multiplier a lot!
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) 1x – There are few players I will look at with a 1x multiplier. McCaffrey is one of them this week. Lamar Jackson is not. The Ravens didn’t do anything to upgrade their pass catchers, and Cleveland’s defense could be good.
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 1.6x – Simply not enough volume against an Arizona team that the Niners should blow out of the water. It doesn’t help that Deebo Samuel is likely out, and Brandon Aiyuk may not be able to go, either.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) 1.85x – I like the multiplier…hate the matchup. Fitzpatrick threw for just 1 TD and 3 interceptions against the Patriots in two games last year.
- Miles Sanders (PHI) 1.45x – Sanders doesn’t seem to be at 100%, and the Redskins strength on defense is that defensive line that is stacked with former first-rounders.
- Kenyan Drake (ARI) 1.4x – Arizona is going to be throwing the ball. Not enough volume for Drake, and the multiplier is nowhere near high enough considering the matchup.
- Devin Singletary (BUF) 1.6x – The Jets run D is their strength. Singletary has reportedly had some fumbling issues. And we have no idea how the Singletary/Moss split will work. Wait and see here.
- Mike Evans (TB) 1.45x – If he plays, he’s going to be limited. You also never can tell if it’s going to be an Evans week, or a Godwin week. Throw Gronk into the mix, and an improved run game with Fournette, it’s going to be tough for me to play these Bucs wideouts in 2020.
- Michael Thomas (NO) 1x – Another 1x. Thomas is the top receiver in fantasy football, yes, but the odds of him having a big enough game to make him an optimal play at 1x are slim. Maybe in cash…
- Terry McLaurin (WAS) 1.55x – I’m a huge McLaurin guy, but not this week. Darius Slay, one of the league’s top shadow corners, is in Philly now. Keep the name Steven Sims in mind if you’re looking for a cheap WR option for your standard DFS lineups…I think McLaurin will be locked down.
- Mark Andrews (BAL) 1x – If I’m fading Lamar Jackson and Michael Thomas because of the 1x tag, there’s no way in hell Andrews will end up on my rosters.
- Austin Hooper (CLE) 1.2x – Tough matchup for Cleveland this week, and the 1.2x multiplier just doesn’t attract me to Hooper, even if it was a good matchup.
T.J. Hockenson (DET) 1.6x– Golladay looks to be out Sunday and a report came out today declaring Hockenson 100% healthy. That’s enough to take him off of my fade list for the week.
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