Duke’s DFS EPL Preview for Sunday…
Saturday fell flat. Our Core 4 was more of a Poor 4, as I lost almost all H2H and I know at least one of our subs has the exact same lineup as I did. We got goals from Abraham and Martial, but our other pieces didn’t do enough and chalk donkey Juan Mata picked up his first two assists since he turned 40. So yeah, we are back for more action on Sunday!!!
To the desert…
EPL VEGAS LINES
- BOU +165 | 2.5 (-105o/-115u)
- WAT +170
- DRAW +230
- AVL +1300 | 4 (+110o/-130u)
- MCI -600
- DRAW +750
DFS EPL GAME THOUGHTS
Watford look stabilized, and Bournemouth look anything but. BOU have the worst form table in the Prem at the moment. Only one point from their last four games and four points from their last 10 games. Nathan Ake is still out. Josh King is out. Callum Wilson hasn’t scored since August. It’s the Prem, and any team can have a good run, but I don’t think this is the place they start.
As for Watford, they’ve been much better defensively under Pearson. They’ve conceded only two goals in four games. The bonus is the fact they are getting goals from their front players. Deulofeu, Sarr and Deeney are bulging the old onion bag with regularity. I’m not sure we see a winner here.
City has their swagger back. They were clinical against Sheffield. They got the job done against Everton. Just look at the total for this game. There will be goals. I think the implied goal total is a bit harsh on Villa, but certainly, City are rightfully favorites.
Villa picked up a massive three points against Burnley and will likely feel like this is a spot where they have nothing to lose. A team playing free is generally a decent team. However, the talent gap is simply too large for them to expect to pick up any points here. Against teams in the top half of the table, they’ve played 10 games and picked up one point. They’ve also conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game in those contests.
DFS EPL PICKS
Aguero – MCI – $10.1k
You saw the stat about Villa conceding 2.4 goals a game against the top half, right? You are going to see a lot of City in this preview.
Sterling – MCI – $9.7k
I don’t love his form, but against these fullbacks, he could eat. He’s likely #3 on my list of players to play behind KDB and Aguero.
Mahrez – MCI – $9.5k
Expensive but the ceiling is there.
Sarr – WAT – $7.8k
I like him slightly ahead of Deulofeu, but both are fine if you want to get different off of City. I’m not really on Deeney because he’s just a penalty taking Mark Noble type who happens to play forward.
Solanke – BOU – $3.7k
Not a good player but might get the start and we need value somewhere.
De Bruyne – MCI – $11.2k
We are going to need extreme value to fit him, but how do you fade him when the likes of Grealish are only $2k less? Set pieces. Goal upside. Open play. A lot to like.
Fraser – BOU – $7.4k
More than I want to pay, but we can’t roster all City. At home as a slight favorite is a decent spot for Fraser. It’s not like Watford are Liverpool.
Gundogan – MCI – $6.6k
I might not be able to afford KDB, and when I can’t, I’m going here. Gundo, especially when playing next to Rodri, gets forward enough to justify this price.
H Wilson – BOU – $5.7k
My GPP special. Harry will need to have a big game for Bournemouth to have a chance. Watford’s left side of the defense is their weaker side, and Wilson coming in off the right to his left is the money spot.
Doucoure – WAT – $3.8k
I think he might actually be popular with everyone paying up for City. Decent value with goal upside.
Billing – BOU – $3.5k
Will I have the balls to roll out a KDB/Doucoure/Billing lineup? Maybe…. Has a hammer of a left foot and gets some other peripheral stats.
Rico – BOU – $5.4k
Getting his crossing stats back to where they need to be. Finally a decent spot for him.
Holebas – WAT – $4.8k
Femenia is out, and Watford likely head back to Holebas. Has been getting forward less, but we haven’t seen how Pearson is really going to use him. Worth a flier on a rough D slate.
Angelino – MCI – $6.3k
Woof this price, but the opportunities will be plenty. You could also plug in Mendy, but he hasn’t really been the same athlete he was prior to his knee injury.
El Mohammady – AVL – $4.4k
He’s nearly the same price as Walker, and even though I think City will have 70% possession, I prefer him. Does get forward and cross the ball. He’s bottom of the list, and we might have some center backs jump in tomorrow after team news in the first game.
Good luck!! New to DFS Soccer? Here’s an intro with Duke’s Rules & Strategies!