Vegas baby! Vegas. This is a 267 lap event. Round 1 of the playoffs. I will dive in a bit deeper in my updated article of what the playoffs mean.
South Point 400 DFS Breakdown
- Las Vegas Motor Speedway
- Sunday 9/15/19 – 7:00 PM
- 1.5 mile, Paved
Last Race Notables: Joey Logano won.
- Laps Led – Harvick: 88, Logano: 86, Kurt Busch: 23, Byron: 21, Kes: 17, Kyle Busch: 13, Suarez: 12
- Start/Finish – Logano 10/1, Kes 19/2, Kurt Busch 28/5, Almirola 25/7, Truex 23/8, Buescher 27/18
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
SOUTH POINT 400 DFS PICKS
Kevin Harvick ($10,300) – Starting 3rd. He is hot coming into the playoffs, winning three of the last seven races. Harvick has nine top 10’s, six top 5’s and two wins here at Vegas.
Brad Keselowski ($9,500) – Starting 18th. Eight top 10’s, six top 5’s and three wins here. Listen to these past eight finishes here: 2nd, 1st, 6th, 5th , 1st, 7th, 1st and 3rd.
Kyle Busch ($11,500) – Starting 20th. Beast. Threat to win every week. Fastest in 10 lap average. Nine top 10’s, seven top 5’s and a win here in Vegas.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,700) – Starting 24th. Lot’s of upside here. Solid cash and GPP pick due to starting position. Seven top 10’s, four top 5’s and a win here in Vegas.
Ryan Blaney ($8,700) – Starting 23th. Will defintely be on Team Penske this weekend. Blaney included. Four top 10’s and two top 5’s here. Starting to find some speed here in the last few races.
Erik Jones ($9,100) – Starting 26th. Jones has had some solid runs here mixed in with a crash. Having a nice little year. Finished 13th earlier in the year at Vegas. Look for him to have some speed and a solid run this weekend.
Kurt Busch ($9,300) – Starting 5th. Fastest in the last practice. Busch, Busch this weekend? Sure!! Five top 10’s, two top 5’s here at Vegas.
Chase Elliott ($8,900) – Starting 8th. Showing some speed in practice. Five top 10’s, two top 5’s here at Vegas. Having a great year and running for a championship.
Paul Menard ($6,900) – Starting 21st. Five top 10’s and one top 5 here at Vegas. Just a plethora of solid finishes here for Menard. Seems like a nice safe cash play. 15th, 10th and 9th in his last three at Vegas.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,400) – Starting 25th. Having some nice runs on his new team. Looking for that to continue this weekend. At this price point, there is lots of upside. These two lower-end drivers should be pretty popular this weekend.
Austin Dillon ($6,800) – Starting 7th. Numerous finishes in the teens. A top ten and a top 5 here at Vegas. GPP only, but he is fast in practice.
Bubba Wallace ($6,600) – Starting 31st. Low end guy who is kinda hot. Last three finishes are 3rd, 24th, 15th. GPP, but gonna ride him here.
SOUTH POINT 400 PICKS TO WIN
- Brad Keselowski
- Kyle Busch
- Kevin Harvick
- Sleeper – Ryan Blaney +2200
Last race predictions: Brickyard 400
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.