Get back in the action with Duke’s DFS breakdown of this Saturday’s 5-game Bundesliga slate!!
WELCOME BACK!! Holy shit we have contests!!!
Technically the K League 1 article was our welcome back but that felt rushed and last minute. We did have many subs SMASH so that was fun to see. We are back to real soccer. The Bundesliga is always a fun league to watch. The league itself is fairly good top to bottom and especially at the top end, possesses really high quality teams. At the time of this writing there were both Drafkings and Fanduel contests but Fanduel then took those down. We’ll move forward as always with the information that we have and make updates as they come in.
For those interested, here is the layout of teams through Germany.
We do get some local derby action throughout the year but what you care about is who is going to win and who is going to produce DK/FD points. Let’s get to that.
I’m interested to see how these teams will come back. Will teams with more talent simply win? Will teams that require more oganization take some time to get back into the swing of things with the odd training restrictions?
As always…to the desert…
9:30am Monday Odds THURSDAY ODDS
-Borussia Dortmund -180 2.5,3 (-115o/-105u) -190 2.5, 3 (-125o/+105u)
FC Schalke +500 +500
DRAW +340 +350
-Augsburg +225 2.5 (-105o/-115u) +240 2.5 (-105o-115u)
VfL Wolfsburg +130 +115
DRAW +235 +255
-Dusseldorf +115 2.5,3 (+105o/-125u) +115 2.5, 3 (-105o/-115u)
Paderborn +235 +235
DRAW +265 +265
-RB Leipzig -305 3 (+105o/-125u) -305 3 (-105o/-115u)
Freiburg +900 +850
DRAW +450 +450
-Hoffenheim +110 2.5,3 (EVENo/-120u) +115 2.5, 3 (EVENo/-120u)
Hertha Berlin +260 +230
DRAW +260 +260
GOAL SCORING ODDS
Haaland and Werner topped the charts. We aren’t surprised.
Dormund come in as the big home favorite here. Schalke are a decent side but you’d expect BVB to take the W here. Their home field advantage is unmatched in the league. They are 9-3-0 with 41 goals for and only 10 against. Schalke are an even 4-4-4 with 15 goals for and 18 goals conceded away from home. Reminder, there are not going to be fans at these games but they will be played at their home stadiums. The familarity will help. No travel, etc.
These two play each other tough. Schalke have won 2 of the last 4 with a draw as well. Lucien Favre really lacked a true #9 which they now in Erling Braut Haland. Prior to the break, Dortmund had won 5 straight Bundesliga matches including I expect Dortmund to find the scoresheet and take the 3 points in a win. It’s a derby match so anything can happen but that’s how I see it.
BVB – Sancho, Guerreiro, Brandt
SCH – Oczipka, Harit, Caligiuri when he starts
Augsburg was happy to see the break arrive from Covid. They were on a horrid run of form, taking just 4 points from a possible 27 in their last 9 games. They hit a purple patch in November and December but have found their level since. You guys know I don’t love backing teams that struggle to score and they really struggle. The good news? Their goals surge to 2 per game at home, up from 0.92 per away.
Wolfsburg are one of the better away teams in the league. They are taking 1.5 pts/game on the road while scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.42. Oddly only 50% of their away matches have gone over 2.5 goals while averaging 2.92 goals per game in total. Wolfsburg are playing catch up most of the time. They score first only 33% of the time on the road and only 36% in general.
They tied the reverse fixture 0-0 and not surprisingly they have the lowest total on the board.
AUG – Max, Lowen, Vargas
WOL – Arnold, Brekalo, Mehmedi
Woof. Welcome to the toilet bowl. These teams represent 2 of the bottom 3 teams in this 18 team division but do have some talent on display. This is a true 6 pointer here with just a few games left in the season. Dusseldorf do have home wins over Mainz, Union Berlin and Koln but did lose the reverse fixture 2-0 to Paderborn.
Paderborn struggle in general but do have away wins over Werder Bremen and Freiburg. They’ve only been shut out in 3 of their 12 away matches and will likely find the score sheet in this game as they did in their home match v Paderborn.
Here’s a freaky one:
Dusseldorf avg goals for at home: 1.08
Paderborn avg goals for away: 1.08
Dusseldorf avg goals conceded at home: 1.92
Paderborn avg goals conceded away: 1.92
Close match any way you slice it with Dusseldorf taking the slight edge being at home in the first game back.
DUS – Stoger, Berisha, Thommy
PAD – Proger, Ritter
THIS IS A GOOD GAME! The deby with Schalke and Dortmund will get the headlines but this game could and should have absolute fireworks. We know how fun this Leipzig team can be but Freiburg are exciting in their own right.
Leipzig sit 3rd in the table with Frieburg 8th. Unfortunately for Freiburg, they do most of their damage at home and against the bottom half of the table away from home. Leipzig are an equal opportunity destroyer of souls when it comes to the bottom of the table but have only 3 wins from 13 games against the top half. (home + away)
Freiburg won the home fixture 2-1 but Leipzig had 61% possession and outshot Freiburg 24 to 14. It was also an extremely weird match where Freiburg made two substitutions before the 40th minute.
Back at home give me some RBL love. This game has the highest total on the board as of right now and carries some familiar names. It might be chalky.
RBL – Angelino, Nkunku, Sbitzer
FRE – Grifo, Gunter
1-1 draw anyone? I do expect goals in this game. Hertha Berlin have had an absolute clown show of a season. Pal Dardai is the manager until June when Ante Covic takes over. He lasts just a few months and is replaced by Jurgen Klinsmann. Yes, that Jurgen Klinsmann. He lasts literally 3 months and abruptly quits after Hertha spends A SHITLOAD of cash in the January transfer window bringing in new recruits.
Now Bruno Labbadia is left to clean up the mess and get results. He was with Wolfsburg in 2018-19 where he led them to a 22-18-10 record. Not great but not terrible. Prior to the break things had turned around a bit. They’ve lost only 3 games since December and have worked their way up to 13th.
Hoffenheim seem to understand you get more chasing a win than drawing every single game. They are 10-10-5 on the season but sitting in 9th at the moment with a decent set of fixtures to finish out the season. They play only 2 games against the top half of the table the rest of the way.
This will be a tough game for both teams. Very competitive but I’m excited to watch.
HOF – Skov, Hofman, Rudy
HTH – Darida, Maier, Mittelstadt
*First, a word on bankroll management. I know we are excited to have real soccer back. I know we are excited to see $20k up top on DraftKings. I would exercise caution with how many lineups you make and contests you enter. For one, presumably we are back. EPL will be back. Serie A will be back. La Liga will be back. If they are offering Bundesliga now I don’t imagine they will choose either/or when the Prem returns. We are going to have an insane 2 months here with not only soccer but potentially NBA, MLB, PGA, Nascar all leading up until football season and the beginning of next year.
The last thing we want to is be depositing again for next weekend’s contests. Lastly, these managers have had nothing to do but sit around and tinker with how they will set their teams up when action returns. Everyone wants to be the smartest person in the room. All set piece takers, penalty takers, tactics, etc are based on what has happened to date. Who knows what it will look like this weekend? Hopefully us!
All based on DRAFTKINGS pricing. I’ll have a FD Cheat Sheet on Friday and an explanation below.
Werner – RBL – $10.5k
For those who are new to this, we don’t always just plug and play the most expensive player on the slate. Werner was on fire this season before the shut down and I expect him to pick things back up. Forwards are tricky though so be careful here. He’s $10.5k but on a -300 favorite at home projected to score multiple goals. That’s the good news. He’s a forward who hasn’t scored a goal in several months so we have to wonder how his confidence level rates heading into this game. I expect him to be just fine. Big time volume shooter with 95 shots from 25 games. 21 goals and 7 assists to boot thus far.
Haaland – BVB – $10.2k
I do think he’ll be popular. He has the second best goal scoring odds for a big favorite who rarely loses at home. Haaland is efficient. He’s not a volume shooter. He doesn’t pick up many peripheral stats. We need a goal here to hit value which can certainly happen.
Cunha – BSC – $6.2k
He’s mispriced. I understand he’s a road dog but he’s a breath of fresh air for this attack. Since his arrival from RBL he’s worked his way into the team very well. In 3 starts he has 18 shots, 6 of which were on target with 2 goal. They can definitely win this game. GPP for sure.
Proger – SCP – $7.5k
M/F designation which gives us flexibility. Set piece monopoly and a decent chance for Paderborn to grab a point here. 160 crosses in 23 games is bananas. He does have plenty of shot equity as well.
Grifo – SCF – $7k
M/F set piece monopoly forward with 31 shots in 18 games. His crossing numbers are what intrigues me with this game. No Upamencano for RBL so the middle of the defense should be tested with balls from wide areas.
T Hazard – BVB – $8.9k
I’m not a fan of his game. I think this team is above his level quite honestly. However, his role increases if Sancho misses. He can certainly produce in this attack. He has 10 assists in 24 games. GPP only.
Mehmedi – WOL – $6.9k
Road fav who’s performed well when he’s started. He’s gone for double digits in 3 of his last 4 fights. Price is fine but a touch expensive considering his relatively limited upside.
Brekalo – WOL – $7.8k
I love the upside of the youngster but 2 things: we aren’t positive he starts and second, he is very young. That can be good or bad but not having fans will help.
Thommy – F95 – $8.2k
Paying over $8k for a Dusseldorf player seems ridiculous but he’s only +275 to score and was on a great run before the break. He has to be extremely efficient with the limited chances he’ll get which is why it’s tough to justify the price. I will have a lineup with Thommy. It will also have….
Karaman – F95 – $7.2k
He’s all or nothing and at this price it’s just tough to rank him higher. He’s good to pair with someone like Thommy if Dusseldorf do happen to score multiple goals.
Piatek – BSC – $5.9k
Big bruising forward who can head a cross. That’s about it but it can be effective.
Bebou – TSG – $5.3k
Injuries likely shove him back into the lineup up front. We are hoping for a tap in here. The player isn’t super talented but he’s a decent punt for a slight home favorite.
Angelino – RBL – $6.2k
You won’t go Angelino/Guerreiro midfield!! I might, actually. In cash that is. Once again we have a defender listed as a midfielder which I don’t mind when it applies like it does to these 2. Angelino has taken on more responsibility with set pieces since the drop in form of Nkunku. First game back so we’ll see what happens. (insert Booger McFarland joke here)
Guerreiro – BVB – $6.1k
This depends on a couple of different things here: 1) Jason Sancho – if Sancho doesn’t start, Guerreiro likes takes the lead on set pieces. 2) What position he plays. He’s played some fullback, some midfield and even some wing roles. Let’s wait for team news before we go all in. Sancho is the key as he really lowers Guerreiro’s value at this price.
Nkunku – RBL – $9.7k
I really don’t rate him as a player and he seemed to take his foot off the gas at times when I’ve watched him but I do expect him to garner ownership even at this price based on his game logs. 16.9, 19.4 and 48 is nothing to sneeze at. Realistically he has 3 statistically poor games out of his last 13 in the Bundesliga. I’ll have shares but probably less than the field. He’s a good play but so damn expensive.
Stoger – F95 – $6.8k
Really decent price here for a player with a near set piece monopoly and a great balance of peripherals across the board on a home favorite. Decent total as well. Cash consideration.
Hakimi – BVB – $6.4k
I really liked him when he was listed as a defender, even at this price. He’s been playing further forward and producing stats that show it. 3 goals and 10 assists in 25 games is a decent output for a defender by trade. He had a really great run of form earlier in the season but has come back to the mean a touch. However, even in his “down turn” he has a goal and 4 assists in his last 5 games.
Skov – TSG – $7.7k
Bit of no-man’s land with pricing here but the boy can hit a free kick. He is a set piece taker but doesn’t necessarily have a monopoly. Crossing numbers are good but only 3 goals and 4 assists from 22 games. Very much in play but we’ll see how team news goes.
Arnold – WOL – $8.4k
Really good floor. The upside is surprisingly limited but they are favorites here. He has a shockingly low number of assists considering his open play and set piece value.
Sabitzer – RBL – $9.1k
Risky play here so I’m recommending GPP only as part of RBL stacks but he does have upside for a big home favorite. Runs hot and cold but a hot game will produce 2.5x here. Volume shooter when he gets the time and space. Works through the middle of the field and has lost some set piece equity or he’d be ranekd higher.
Max – FCA – $5.9k
I don’t want a ton of Augsburg but he’s on all set pieces and has good crossing numbers. Game logs are heavily skewed due to a purple patch in late November/December so don’t just look at the average and plug him in.
Harit – S04 – $4.6k
Does have a minor set piece share and can get forward through the middle. Schalke are all over the map with their team shape so we’ll wait to see how they lineup before we risk cash on him.
Reyna – BVB – $4.7k
Sneaky little play here if he starts in place of Hazard. I like him more but he’s still very very young and likely wills start on the bench. Should he start I’d be all over him in cash and GPP but don’t include him in your builds prior to team news.
Kaderabek – TSG – $5.4k
Doesn’t start often but when he does he plays wide and swings in a ton of crosses. Good opportunity if he does start.
Schmid – SCF – $4.1k
Keeping my eye on team news before acting here. Fringe play.
Oczipka – SO4 – $4.8k
Road dog but it’s a derby and Schalke always plays BVB tough. He’s the main set piece taker and does get forward in the run of play. BVB are ravished with injuries so perhaps Schalke can catch them on the break. He can hit value without an assist.
Halsternberg – RBL – $4.6k
In cash consideration as a wing back for Red Bull. Solid but mostly un-spectacular play.
Mittelstadt – BSC – $5.6k
You are paying for it but he should have most, if not all set pieces. Darida looks likely to miss this game and when he’s out the responsibility falls to Mittlestadt. There is a possibility Luekbakio takes some and considering the price he’s not a must play.
Gunter – SCF – $5.1k
Probably the best actual player on Freiburg and a focus of their attack. Very expensive for the odds Freiburg are given. Not a must play at all.
Kenny – S04 – $3.8k
Cheap wingback averaging over 2 crosses per game.
Roussillon – WOL – $4.5k
I like him at this price. Shots and crosses for under $5k is good value.
Todibo – S04 – $3.1k
A center back by nature, he has been playing some CDM as well in this system pushing him further up the field. Decent punt option who picks up defensive stats, is eligible for the clean sheet but can get forward for some shots.
Otavio – WOL – $5.7k
He’s too much of an accumulator for me to spend this much cash here. He’ll garner ownership due to his logs and averages but trying to grab tackles, interceptions, shots, crosses, fouls drawn to get to value is just so tough here.
Casteels – WOB – $5k
Betting against Augsburg here. CS possibilities.
Nubel – S04 – $3.8k
I love the upside here considering it’s a derby and Schalke always plays BVB tough.
BSC GK – $4.4k/$4.3k
Whoever starts is worth a flier. Kraft has been absolute ass but I do like Hertha overall and the upside is there.
Gulasci – RBL – $5.9k
I don’t know how you afford this but his W odds are obviously the highest on the slate.