TPC Summerlin hosts this week’s event in Las Vegas, NV. It’s a Par 71, which features three Par 5’s (three of the five easiest holes on the course) and four Par 3’s (two of the five hardest holes on the course). The weather plays a big role in how low scores get. Last year we saw scores return back to what we’re used to as the wind didn’t blow as hard as the year prior.
Patrick Cantlay has made his mark here the last two years, finishing 2nd last year and winning in 2017 (we finally got the win even though he was close to the event favorite). Summerlin is a TPC course, so it has a golfer friendly layout with wide fairways, plenty of large, easy to hit out of bunkers and a few water hazards. There are some holes which feature some tree-lined fairways, but for the most part this is a bomb & gouge event and we should be taking our usual approach of targeting long hitters off the tee and pairing them with players who come in with good form and a strong approach game.
Of course, we’ll want our players to get hot with the putter, but those types of players are better suited as one-off plays in our GPP lineups and our core of players will be primarily made up of our usual #brand plays who are horrendous putters when looking at a much larger sample size.
o The Course
· TPC Summerlin
· Par 71
· 7,200 yards
· Bentgrass greens
o Location: Las Vegas, NV
o Corollary Courses/Performances: TPC River Highlands (Travelers)
o Past Champions:
· 2018: Bryson DeChambeau -21 over Patrick Cantlay
· 2017: Patrick Cantlay -9 in a playoff over Alex Cejka & Whee Kim
· 2016: Rod Pampling -20 over Brooks Koepka
· 2015: Smylie Kaufman -16 over Cameron Tringale, Patton Kizzire, Jason Bohn, Kevin Na, Brett Stegamaier & Alex Cejka
· 2014: Ben Martin -20 over Kevin Streelman
KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT+SG: APP, Birdies or Better, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – P4 Scoring 400-450y, APP 125-175 yards, APP 200+ yards
THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS
Bryson Dechambeau (DK $10,700)
· History: Win – 7th– 36th
· Form: 13th– DNP – MC
· Stats: 24th– SG: OTT, 54th– SG: APP, 28th– SG: P, 37th– SG: T2G
· Analysis: Bryson comes in following a ho-hum 13th place finish which was a bit disappointing as he was leading the Safeway Open for a brief period of time, but I’m sure he’s not kicking himself too hard. Taking the ending result out of it and pairing with his history I think makes him a strong play this week as he hits all of the key metrics we’re targeting. His game combined with a strong course history and good form is basically a fit for a title defense and he could end up with another win.
Tony Finau (DK $9,800): 36th – 16th – 41st – 16th – 7th is how his course history reads. He played well in Scotland last week during the Dunhill Links Championship (T10) and while the jetlag factor may be something of a concern, his strong play here paired with his increasing good play is certainly something I’m focusing on when including him in lineups.
Scott Piercy (DK $7,900): 10th – 32nd– 24th – 25th shows us he’s extremely consistent, and it makes sense since the Vegas native probably knows the course as well as anyone. He’s gained strokes putting at TPC Summerlin in half of his starts, which might be even more impressive. Naturally, when he gains strokes putting, he finishes inside the Top 10 so he could be a chalk GPP play that I’m willing to consider this week.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,400)
· History: 41st
· Form: 33rd– Win – 7th
· Stats: No stats from 2019
· Analysis: Munoz not mailing it in after his first career victory was a surprise last week as he started Sunday inside the Top 10. Unfortunately for him, he wasn’t able to keep it together and ultimately finished the day just inside the bonus zone for finishing position. We’re hopping back on the Munoz train as he was sub 10% owned in GPPs and is keeping his hot form since the start of the 2019 season.
Dylan Frittelli (DK $8,900): 7th & 6th in his last two events might be a better indication of some maturation on Frittelli’s part, or it’s just that he’s finally finding his game and place on the PGA Tour. His ownership will certainly be a concern this week as he was almost 20% owned in GPPs last week and coming off another strong finish you’d have to think that number won’t go down.
Lanto Griffin (DK $7,200): 17th – 11th – 13th since beginning the new season is a great start for Lanto. He’s a scorer which is always helpful when targeting players and he’s shown a consistency during the last month of being able to hang around for four days, which is also good.
Cheap Form Horses: Brandt Snedeker (DK $9,200), JT Poston (DK $8,300), Brian Harman (DK $7,800), Robby Shelton (DK $6,900)
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,700)
· History: Hasn’t played here since 2015 (10th)
· Form: MC – DNP – DNP
· Stats: 26th– SG: OTT, 5th– SG: APP, 97th– SG: P, 3rd– SG: T2G
· Analysis: Hideki may have missed the cut last week, but that doesn’t change how his game is a great fit for most courses and that doesn’t change this week either. He only lost 1.4 strokes on the greens, but the main problem was he didn’t gain a single stroke from tee to green, which is very unlike him. I’m chalking that up to rust from a long layoff and am willing to go back to him this week.
Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500): 10th last week at 22% owned in GPPs means we’re likely to see MoriCHALKwa yet again this week and for good reason. He’s a beast from tee to green and has consistently turned out solid performances and provides a ton of upside in his young career.
Andrew Putnum (DK $8,100): Putnum’s strength is with his putter. He typically gains most of his strokes on the greens so he’s not the typical player we target. On the off chance his irons are dialed in is when we see him really jump up the leaderboard – see: Charles Schwab 4.3 SG: APP (3rd), Northern Trust 3.7 SG: APP (12th). To me, he seems like a high upside GPP play this week, and nothing else due to primarily playing on the European Tour (and playing well might I add).
Honorable Mentions: Jason Kokrak (DK $8,600), Keegan Bradley (DK $7,500), Kevin Streelman (DK $7,400), Sam Ryder (DK $7,000)
CORE GPP PLAYS
Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,100): Runner-up, winner in his two appearances here, which is pretty impressive all things considered. Cantlay might be a pain to watch on TV, but his game is clearly made for the course regardless of conditions, so we’ll be going overweight on him this week.
Adam Scott (DK $10,000): If the greens are fast again this week, I might change my mind as we’ve seen his putting on fast greens, but last week’s performance in his first event of the year was definitely a positive one. Last week marked the fourth straight event where Scott has gained strokes on the greens. He finished T17 and actually gained more strokes on the greens (1.7) than he did off the tee (-4.8). We should expect those numbers to normalize fairly quickly.
Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,200): Hughes comes in after missing his last two cuts this season, so there shouldn’t be any concern of his ownership. Statistically, he’s been horrendous T2G during that time as well, but over his last 24 rounds he’s been a Top 5 player in this field so we’re going to take a chance on a struggling player. He’s normally a strong putter as well, so hopefully that turns around with the rest of his game.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!
– Pari (@hitthehighdraw)