We have one more game to finish off week 2 of the NFL’s preseason. San Francisco visits Denver tonight, and we’ve got some Showdown lineups to build!
[responsivevoice_button voice=”UK English Female” buttontext=”Listen to Post”]
Check back here for any updates leading up to kickoff.
Strategies For Setting Showdown Lineups
First and foremost, make sure you spend a few minutes going over Tyler Buecher’s write-up here on How to Play Preseason DFS – there’s a lot of great info in there to get you started. While his piece is more of a primer on general preseason DFS research and strategy, I wanted to touch on this Showdown format that we’ll be playing this week.
By now, I’m going to assume you all know how the Showdown or Single-Game format works. Your Captain (or MVP on Fanduel) gets 1.5x their fantasy points. During the preseason, all players are priced the same, so salaries don’t matter – you’re simply looking to place the player who scores the most fantasy points into your Captain/MVP slot while filling out the rest of your roster with the remaining 4 or 5 highest scoring players.
I went over some strategy on correlating and stacking in my write-up for the Hall of Fame Game a
Today, I wanted to go over some numbers. I went through 31 Showdown slates that took place over the first two weeks of the preseason in 2018-19. I wanted to see how often each position appeared in either the Captain slot or in the overall optimal lineup. Here’s what I found:
Captain Slot By Position
WR – 12 (37.7%)
RB – 9 (29.0%)
QB – 4 (12.9%)
K – 4 (12.9%)
TE – 1 (3.2%)
DST – 1 (3.2%)
Optimal Lineup Appearances By Position
WR – 55 (1.8 per optimal lineup)
RB – 50 (1.6 per optimal lineup)
QB – 39 (1.3 per optimal lineup)
DST – 17 (0.5 per optimal lineup)
K – 13 (0.4 per optimal lineup)
TE – 12 (0.4 per optimal lineup)
You can interpret this data however you’d like. Personally, I want to make sure AT LEAST 3 of my spots are reserved for RB/WR tonight, and at least 1 spot is reserved for a quarterback. I’ll look to include the TE, K, and DST positions in about 50% of lineups per position. For my captain spot, I’m probably just eliminating TE and DST as positions I’ll consider there – and will rarely use QB. When making multiple lineups, I’ll be sure to have a RB or WR captain in at least two-thirds of my lineups.
Certainly, there are outliers. If we find out a quarterback is playing the entire game, for instance, he will definitely be in play at
C.J. Beathard – Beathard is slated to come in after Jimmy Garoppolo’s welcome back drive. He played the second half in week one and fared slightly better than Mullens. Tonight, he’ll get better linemen, better pass-catchers, but of course, he’ll be playing against better defensive players, too. Regarding Beathard stacks, Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd are the big-play threats, and Richie James has loads of PPR upside. PAIRS WELL
Nick Mullens – I believe Mullens to be the better quarterback between these two, but he’s going to get second half time, so this is a tough one to figure. If the Niners are ahead, they’ll probably keep the ball on the ground for the most part. If they’re behind, Mullens should be slinging it around. Kendrick Bourne would be my favorite receiver to stack in Mullens lineups. PAIRS WELL WITH: WR Kendrick Bourne
Austin Walter – Walter had over twice the number of snaps (44) as the next running back in line. He grades well as a pass-blocker, so I am expecting him to lead the backfield again. Walter can also catch the ball, as evidenced by his 5 catches for 32 yards in week one. He could play a lot in the first half, as Raheem Mostert was checked out for a concussion in practice over the weekend.
Jeff Wilson Jr. – Wilson is fighting for a roster spot and is reportedly fully healthy after dealing with some nagging injuries this offseason. He’ll be getting his first preseason action tonight, and I’d expect him to play quite a bit. Wilson is also a guy who can catch the ball out of the backfield, so you don’t need to worry about game script affecting his production.
Jalen Hurd – Hurd was a favorite of mine coming out of college. In my draft sleepers article on FantasyGuru.com, I wrote: “Naturally, the former running back’s best trait seems to be his YAC ability.
Deebo Samuel – Samuel, like Hurd, looked very impressive in his first game action last week. He led all receivers in snaps (36) and caught 2 balls for 61 yards – although he was targeted 4 times. I think these two get bumped up in the pecking order some, so I’m expecting most of his playing time to come with Beathard in the first half. PAIRS WELL WITH: QB C.J. Beathard
Richie James Jr. – In week one, James led the team in targets (7) and receptions (6), going for 31 yards. He had 28 snaps last week and was playing on-and-off throughout most of the game. I’d pair him with Beathard if going that route. PAIRS WELL WITH: QB C.J. Beathard
Kendrick Bourne – We’re moving down the depth chart here, and Bourne had 25 snaps in week one. He was targeted 3 times but caught just 1 of those balls. Of the four receivers I like on this Niners team, Bourne should have the lowest ownership. He is battling Jordan Matthews for what is likely the last WR spot on the final 53-man roster. PAIRS WELL
Kaden Smith – Last week, Smith led the 49er tight ends in snaps and pass-routes run. He’s not your ideal pass-catching tight end, but he should play the most amongst this group. I won’t be using many tight ends in general tonight, but Smith would be my preferred option on this
Robbie Gould – Gould is the only kicker on the 49ers roster. I don’t use many kickers in
49ers – I strongly prefer the 49ers defense over Denver’s tonight. If you take a quick look at the beat writer timelines from this past week, you’ll see it littered with comments about how badly the 49ers were beating Denver’s offensive linemen.
Drew Lock – I don’t think Lock is a very good NFL quarterback yet, but he doesn’t mind taking chances – therefore, this is more of a GPP play. Brett Rypien didn’t take a single snap last week, and some around the team think that will continue as the Broncos would like to keep him on their practice squad and don’t want other teams
Devontae Jackson – Jackson is another one of these PPR backs. He caught a receiving touchdown in week one and was targeted 3 times. He led the Broncos in snaps last week, and could see an uptick if Khalfani Muhammad is held out – Muhammad missed practice yesterday.
Dave Williams – Williams played 15 snaps in week one. He ran 13 pass routes, blocked once on a pass play, and had one carry. Williams graded much higher than Jackson last
Juwann Winfree – Winfree has been a camp standout for Denver and is getting rewarded with a ton of preseason work. He’s led the team in snaps in both of their preseason contests thus far, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t again tonight. What is slightly concerning though – Winfree wasn’t even targeted once on 24 snaps last week. I try not to let recency bias interfere with logical plays, and I do think Winfree is a pretty safe bet tonight. PAIRS WELL
Trinity Benson – Here
Kelvin McKnight – McKnight is a 5-foot-8 route-running specialist, with elite YAC ability. He’s also stood out in camp, and also been getting loads of playing time in these preseason contests. Again, he’ll be a second-half guy, so be sure you have Drew Lock in
Moral Stephens – Stephens led Bronco tight ends in snaps last week (24). He is more of a pass-catcher, and was also on the field late in week one for Denver, seeing almost all of his snaps on pass plays. Again, I’m not playing many tight ends tonight, but Stephens is the preferred Denver TE for me. PAIRS WELL
Brandon McManus – McManus is the only kicker on the roster for Denver. Another good situation here. I’m probably bumping up my kicker exposure to about 80% of lineups, so I’ll have quite a bit of McManus tonight.
Broncos – Both Mullens and Beathard have NFL experience, making me slightly less interested in this defense. I’ll definitely have some exposure, but prefer San Francisco for their matchup against Drew Lock, and the reports regarding Denver’s O-line being manhandled at practices this week.
[responsivevoice_button voice=”UK English Female” buttontext=”Listen to Post”]