CJ Kaltenbach continues his discussion of MLB DFS Strategy
for the unique 2020 season!
This MLB season is going to be the craziest DFS season we’ve ever had. For starters, it’s only 60 games instead of the normal 162 game season, but we also have expanded rosters that change size during the season. We have a 60-man taxi squad, we have a new three-batter rule for relievers, and we have time-zone based scheduling. I wouldn’t blame you if you were saying to yourself, “how the hell does any of these things affect my DFS lineups,” and it’s a good question to ask.
Over the next few weeks, I’m going to tackle these topics and show how they can affect the way we build lineups. Am I redefining how we play MLB DFS? Of course not. Come Opening Day, we’ll be stacking and taking mini-stacks heavy in power and low ownership, but I wanted to show how nitty and gritty I get when analyzing baseball. Hope you enjoy!
MLB DFS Strategies Part II: How Three-Batter Rule Can Impact Our DFS Stacks
There is nothing worse than having that Dodgers stack in the 7th inning, runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs and your low-owned Joc Pederson coming to the plate only to see the opposing manager bring in the lefty and end Joc’s day.
While Joc Pederson was the poster-child for this, there are plenty of left-handed hitters who have been subjected to left-handed relievers, whose sole job was to get them out. Now, as part of the completely misguided pace-of-play initiatives, we could potentially be saved by the new three-batter rule.
Per the MLB Rulebook: “A pitcher must either face a minimum of three batters or end a half-inning.”
On its face, it doesn’t seem like a big deal, but let’s show how (competent) starting lineup creation can put managers in a whole world of hurt in trying to get a left-handed reliever to face Joc Pederson.
CJ’s Sample Dodgers Lineup:
CF – Joc Pederson (L)
RF – Mookie Betts (R)
3B – Justin Turner (R)
1B – Cody Bellinger (L)
DH – Max Muncy (L)
LF – AJ Pollock (R)
SS – Corey Seager (L)
C – Will Smith (R)
2B – Gavin Lux (L)
Let’s say Joc Pederson is leading off an inning. Does the opposing manager want to bring a left-handed reliever in to face a PH for Joc, then Mookie Betts and Justin Turner? Or would he rather bring on a right-handed reliever, take his chances with Joc and be on the right side of the platoon, thus having the righty then face Mookie/Turner before using the left-handed reliever for Bellinger/Muncy combination?
Now, let’s say the 8-spot is up. Do you want to use a left-handed reliever for Smith, a right-handed pinch hitter all just to have another pinch hitter show up for Joc? I can show a ton of different combinations where it becomes very hard for a manager to use a lefty to get Joc out (even if there are two outs in an inning and he brings a lefty for the Joc pinch hitter, he better get him out or be forced to face Mookie/Turner).
Now, let’s show another Dodgers lineup where Joc would be highly susceptible to being PH for:
Dodgers Sample Lineup 2
LF – Joc Pederson (L)
RF – Mookie Betts (R)
CF – Cody Bellinger (L)
1B – Max Muncy (L)
3B – Justin Turner (R)
SS – Corey Seager (L)
C – Will Smith (R)
2B – Gavin Lux (L)
DH – Matt Beaty (L)
This situation is way different than the first one, as now any left-handed reliever will get to face additional left-handed hitters in addition to Joc. For example, as the lead-off hitter, Joc would be the first lefty. After the hard Mookie match-up, he’d get two more left-handed batters. Likewise, if an inning started at the bottom of the order, a similar situation would occur with the majority of hitters coming up being pinch hitters or left-handed hitters.
Now, for the only part you all really care about: the application to DFS. By looking carefully at the starting lineups, we can look for left-handed hitters to see if they are protected with right-handed bats that will lower their PH probability. Obviously, having a hitter pinch hit for is the worst thing that can happen to your stack or your one-off plays. The three-batter rule will not only lower the frequency of pinch hitting for left-handed power bats but also should be more foreseeable than in an era where a left-handed reliever could just come in for whatever left-handed hitter was up in a key situation. I plan on taking advantage of this early in the season by not being afraid to include platoon-heavy left-handed hitters in stacks if the managers construct a lineup that protects them.
As always, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter or drop them in the Baseball chat!
Next Week: What we can learn from the KBO on how expanded rosters impacted player usage?
Don’t miss Part I of Seige’s MLB DFS Strategies!
