Scotty C guides you through today’s Showdown slate in the wonderful world of NBA DFS!
To the surprise of many, the Celtics enter game 3 down two games to the Miami Heat, a team without many marquee names but with a solid, cohesive roster across the board. In both games so far in the series, the Heat have had alligator blood, battling back from double digit second half deficits.
The Celtics have their backs to the wall and this is an incredibly important game: the chances of them overcoming a three game deficit are slim. Expect them to come out laser focused and ready to roll. Whether they can sustain execution across an entire game against this Heat squad remains to be seen. Vegas has them as -160 favorites on a 208 total.
The big question heading in is whether Gordon Hayward will suit up for the Celtics after missing almost the entire playoffs thus far. The current expectation is that he will be active, but we’ll have to wait to find out for sure as it’s sounding like he’ll test his ankle in warmups before commiting to play.
If he plays we’ll want to monitor what Boston does with their starting lineup. One scenario would have Marcus Smart coming off the bench, and if that’s the case, he’d likely take a slight hit in minutes from the high 30s he’s been regularly seeing, but we can still expect him to see plenty of action.
The other possible scenario is that Hayward would come off the bench. It’s very difficult to say how many minutes Hayward would play in a return. Under normal circumstances, we’d expect the Celtics to ease him back in, but the demands of the situation might force them to play him more than they otherwise might want to. This is a spot where it’s imperative to pay attention to any news coming out on his availability and if there’s a definite minutes limit.
I’m torn on Brad Wanamaker and whether he’d still be usable if Hayward returns. In these incredibly important games, coaches tend to ride with their best players as much as possible. If they’re going to go down, they want to do it knowing they left it all out there with their studs on the floor. With Hayward back, that’s another stud in the mix and Wanamaker’s minutes could easily become expendable after playing 24 and 25 minutes off the bench the first two games.
For the Heat, I really like using a Tyler Herro or Jae Crowder in the Captain spot because both give us a great shot at 30+ fantasy points and using them wouldn’t require us to dip down into the sub-5k options to fill out our teams. If Hayward plays, which seems likely, most of these $5000 or below guys probably won’t get enough time to be viable dfs options. If Hayward sits, it would obviously give Wanamaker a boost. He’d be a nice option at 4800 and would make it easier to pay up at the Capt. slot.
If I’m dumpster diving, my favorite play is to use Robert Williams III, who is only 1800, and can put up 10-15 fantasy points in very limited minutes. And if I dumpster dive on Williams, I’d just want to use Tatum in the Capt. slot, as he’s shown by far the most upside in these playoffs and a 55-60+ fantasy point performance would put us in a great spot.
Enes Kanter is the other guy capable of putting up a ton of points in a short time, so he’s certainly viable, but just beware that he didn’t even play in the first game. He did, however, have 9 points and 6 boards in the second game and was a +7 on the court. That performance might be enough to get him playing time this game, but there’s no guarantee.
This is one of those games where the rotations will likely be pared down, especially for the Celtics, and minutes will be concentrated among a few players. We all know who those guys are:
Celtics: Tatum, Theis, Kemba, Smart, Brown and Hayward.
Heat: Adebayo, Butler, Crowder, Dragic, Robinson and Herro.
Ideally, we’d like a combination of six of 12 of these guys on our teams. We’re dealing with one game and 12 good players here so any of them could put up good games. That said, Theis, Smart, Hayward, Jimmy B and Robinson are my least favorite options but all are of course still viable. Outside of those 12 guys, taking a shot on a Robert Williams or Enes Kanter is probably the way to go.
Remember that the majority of players will either try to use the entire salary amount or will leave just a hundred or two leftover. Often, creating a unique lineup on a Showdown slate is as simple as leaving 500+ salary on the table.
Good luck today and remember there’s a ton of luck involved in these Showdown slates, so don’t go too crazy with the bankroll 🙂
Fun Fact: Yes, 80-year-old Udonis Haslem is still on the Miami Heat roster and, no, he’s not an option for our Showdown lineups.