Scotty C guides you through today’s Showdown slate in the wonderful world of NBA DFS!
Game five of the NBA Finals tonight at 9:00pm EST. The Lakers are up 3-1 and Miami faces elimination. Bam Adebayo is expected to play for the second game in a row. He saw 33 minutes of action in game 4 and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him up around 40 minutes tonight in this do or die scenario. Goran Dragic is unlikely to play again but worth keeping an eye on his status just in case.
The Lakers ramped up their perimeter defense in game 4, making it very difficult for the Heat to get quality looks from three, especially Duncan Robinson. Without Dragic’s scoring and playmaking ability, there isn’t a ton of offensive firepower here with the Lakers doing a nice job of locking down shooters, which means we’re likely going to need a big game out of Jimmy Butler for the Heat to have a shot. Fortunately, Jimmy has shown us he’s capable of a monster outing against this Lakers squad and I love using him in the Captain’s spot tonight with everything on the line for the Heat.
After Butler, the next best options are either LeBron or AD. Both are of course more than viable. I prefer LeBron, but of the big three, AD will likely be the least owned in the Captain’s spot after two consecutive games below 50 fantasy points.
If we want to pay down at Captain, we can fit all three studs, though there are limited options. Guys like Markieff Morris and Kendrick Nunn are cheap enough to allow us to pay up to get all of LeBron, AD and Butler, and they’ve been getting enough minutes and been involved enough in the offense to have a little bit of upside.
Kelly Olynyk, the Showdown hero from a few games back, logged 12 ineffective minutes last game with Bam back and, outside of foul trouble for Bam (which is certainly a possibility), I think we could see even fewer minutes for him tonight if Bam gets back up into that 38-40 minute range he’s seen for most of the playoffs.
Other interesting options for the Captain’s Spot if we’re mass multi entering include Rajon Rondo, Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Robinson. All will be low owned with so much of the ownership taken by the big three.
The Lakers have turned to Markieff Morris the past two games for extensive minutes and I’d expect them to go back to the well again tonight. Morris is mostly a catch and shoot guy from the three point line for the Lakers, but with so much attention directed towards LeBron and AD, those threes tend to be wide open. At just $3600, he’s a pretty solid value. And while Morris’ stock is up, Dwight Howard’s has taken a hit after just 8 minutes last game.
Kendrick Nunn has struggled the last couple games, but the minutes are there off the bench, and he’s someone the Lakers aren’t as keyed on defensively. He got up 11 shots last game, making just two. The good thing though is the opportunity was there for a guy who averaged 15.3 ppg during the regular season. I think he’s a sneaky good value at the price after a couple of rough games.
All playoffs long, the Lakers have preferred using KCP over Danny Green for a larger chunk of the wing minutes. I’d expect nothing different tonight. KCP is projected to play around 30-31 minutes. He’s a safe option relative to some of the other guys in that price range.
The Lakers have done a really good job making things difficult for Tyler Herro but the talent is undeniable and he’s certainly not afraid to get his. With so much focus on cramming the studs into our lineups, he’ll likely go a little underowned. We’ll want some exposure if we’re making multiple lineups, same with Bam Adebayo, despite the extremely difficult matchup and the fact that they’re both a little overpriced.
As is always the case, if a guy is getting minutes – or even if we have reason to believe a guy might get minutes – he’s viable on a Showdown slate if we’re playing large field tournaments. Danny Green, Alex Caruso, Andre Iguodala, Kyle Kuzma, even Howard and Olynyk, who’s minutes have trended downward, can all be used. We just can’t know with certainty the shape a particular game might take, unexpected things happen all the time.
In large field tournaments, hitting on a sub-5% play – or, better yet, a sub-2% play – can carry us well up the leaderboard, especially when there is concentrated ownership on a handful of guys. In Cash and smaller field tournaments, sticking with a more conventional approach with safer plays is probably the way to go.