Scotty C guides you through today’s Showdown slate in the wonderful world of NBA DFS!
EDIT: Alex Caruso is starting in place of Dwight Howard. There’s a chance now that Howard is completely dropped from the rotation and doesn’t play at all. Obviously, Caruso is now a very strong play, but this could also benefit Rajon Rondo or the other bench guys in Kyle Kuzma and Markieff Morris if there’s a few extra minutes to go around.
What a series this is shaping up to be.
If we’re being honest, I don’t think many people saw this series getting to six games after the injuries suffered by the Heat, but here we are pushing towards the ultimate fan prize: A seventh and deciding game for a championship.
In the two games they’ve won, it’s been Jimmy Butler putting the Heat on his back and willing them to victory. He knows, his teammates know, the Lakers know….everyone knows that if the Heat are going to pull out another one, it’s gotta be Jimmy leading the way. Outside of a massive blowout, extreme foul trouble or an injury, I’d expect Butler to again play close to 48 minutes and stuff the stat sheet with around 20 FGAs. However, whether he’s able to again put up a highly efficient line remains to be seen.
Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are key cogs for the Heat but neither has been able to get much going this series, especially Bam. The Lakers play strong interior defense and they’ve done a nice job of shutting Bam down. Because this is a Showdown slate and these guys are going to start and play big minutes, they are of course in play if you are multi-entering a bunch of teams or if you want to get different in large field tournaments, but, overall, it seems unlikely at this point that either is going to have an upside type of game.
After the Lakers did well to limit sharpshooting Duncan Robinson’s three point attempts in Game Four, he was able to get loose in Game Five for 13 attempts and seven makes. While Robinson is more than capable of hitting tough shots, I think the Lakers will make it a priority to do a better job tonight of blanketing him on the perimeter. Still, he’s such a great shooter and he’s likely going to be out there for big minutes again, so he’s not a bad play, though, like I said, I tend to think the Lakers are really going to gameplan for him.
Jae Crowder is just 6-24 from three over the past three games but he’s playing a ton of minutes and getting up shots. He’s a career 34% three point shooter and has been getting good looks, he just hasn’t knocked much down. He’s a candidate for some positive regression here.
Game Six saw the Heat pare their rotation down to just seven players. Most notably, Kelly Olynyk failed to see the floor and I wouldn’t expect him to play tonight under most circumstances. The only two bench guys that saw minutes were Andre Iguodala and Kendrick Nunn. Nunn is now priced at a point where we can’t use him in the Captain’s Spot and reasonably fit the three studs, but that’s still a possibility with Iggy and I don’t think that’s a bad way to go.
For the Lakers, LeBron James and AD are going to play huge minutes and we all know about their greatness. Any of Jimmy, LeBron and AD are going to be viable in the Captain’s Spot, we could of course never argue with that. However, we can use Alex Caruso and (gulp) Markieff Morris in the Captain’s Spot and fit all three. Both guys have a great shot of seeing 20+ minutes tonight. Morris was beyond terrible last game but I don’t hate going back to the well there as a sneaky play with the masses likely to be scared off.
KCP has been the safest non-LeBron/AD option for the Lakers all playoffs long along with Rajon Rondo. The minutes are very safe for KCP and not as much for Rondo, but Rondo has more upside.
As always, if a player is likely to get minutes or we even think there’s a chance a guy could get minutes, he’s viable on a Showdown slate. If I’m paying up tonight for the Captain’s spot, I like LeBron best, Butler second and AD third. I think a lot of people are going to jump on Jimmy after he went off last game so I don’t mind going back to LeBron tonight.
But, ultimately, my favorite strategy with all three of the studs likely maxed out on their minutes is to pay down at Captain in order to fit all three on our teams. Using an Iggy, Markieff, Caruso or even Kyle Kuzma in the Captain’s Spot to do that is an interesting way to go tonight.