Scotty C guides you through today’s Showdown slate in the wonderful world of NBA DFS!
We head to Game 5 of this Lakers/Nuggets series with the Lakers holding a commanding 3-1 lead. The only silver lining here for the Nuggets is that they were down 3-1 in their previous two series’ and came back to win both. So you’re saying there’s a chance!
The big adjustment that the Lakers made for Game 4 was to start Dwight Howard and play him 23 minutes. The Lakers were severely outrebounded in Game 3 and Howard helped the Lakers to dominate the paint in Game 4 with 11 rebounds, 6 of them offensive. He ended up double-doubling with 12 points as well.
With how well the experiment worked out last game, we have to assume that Howard will draw the start again tonight and, if so, he’s way too cheap at 4200 on DK and 8000 on FD. He’s going to be extremely popular but it’s also a tough fade if he’s starting again.
As we all know by now, LeBron, AD, Jokic and Murray are studs and dominate the action for their respective teams. Ideally we want as many of these guys in our lineups as possible but it’s become increasingly difficult to fit three of the studs in our lineups on DK while it’s still easy on FD.
I don’t think there’s any reason to use Howard in the MVP position on FD but I certainly think that using Howard as the Capt on DK is a viable strategy to fit three of the four studs. Otherwise, I’d just stick with using one of the studs, preferably LeBron but any of the four are fine. In order of preference, I’d put it LeBron, Murray, AD and Jokic.
Paul Millsap was in foul trouble for the majority of Game 4 and never found his footing. In this elimination game, as in the elimination games the Nuggets faced earlier in the playoffs, I’d expect the Nuggets to ride with the veteran for 28-30 minutes tonight, possibly more. With Millsap riding the pine last game, Jerami Grant played a whopping 43 minutes but still only put up 22 fantasy points.
Gary Harris has been M.I.A this entire series and he ceded playing time last game to Monte Morris and Torrey Craig. This situation is fluid and we could certainly see Harris pop back up to 30+ minutes tonight but if he struggles early, it shouldn’t take Mike Malone long to look elsewhere. After Howard, Monte Morris continues to be the top value in the 4k to 5k range.
For the Lakers, KCP is clearly the more trusted of the two between himself and Danny Green. He’s hit 30+ minutes in three out of four games this series while Green has yet to see more than 28.
The big issue I see with tonight’s slate is that because Dwight Howard is so cheap, he’ll be very popular and we’re likely going to have plenty of duplicate lineups, especially with Monte Morris being a strong value as well.
In a one game setting and with prizepools top-heavy, it’s never a bad idea to get contrarian, but the Howard chalk is also pretty good chalk. If you do decide to fade Howard, you don’t have to do anything too crazy to get different because I really do think he’ll be that popular. The fade itself should be enough.