The event formerly known as the Nordea Masters is now called the Scandinavian Invitation. This will be the 2nd year The Hills has hosted the event. We have a very small sample of golf to pull from as far as history goes but at least we have something.
The course is a mix of pretty much everything – marshland to forest ridge. The fairways are wide and easy to hit with huge undulations which should result in some long drives, even for the shorter hitters (Fitzpatrick).
The course features four par 3’s ranging around 190-200 yards (two of them back-to-back on holes 5 & 6 which could put an end to birdie streaks if the players aren’t careful), and three par 5’s ranging from 540-610 yards.
The Par 5, 8th hole is a dogleg right, uphill and is the longest of the three, so this should be the only three shot Par 5 on the course for everyone.
The Par 4’s don’t appear to be too tricky outside of keeping your tee shot in play. The longest is 476 yards and the shortest 388, giving the players a mix of holes where par is a good score on about four of them and a bad score on three.
There appears to be trouble everywhere so we could certainly see some higher scores this week. The course demands a strong approach game (weird). It brought Thomas Aiken back from the dead last year and it wouldn’t be surprising to see someone who has had a down year, but has been an excellent ball striker their entire career, jump up the leaderboard.
o The Course
· Hill Golf & Sports Club
· Par: 70
· Yardage: 6,900 yards
o Location:Molndal, Sweden
o Past Champions:
· 2018: Paul Waring -14 in a playoff over Thomas Aiken
KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT + SG: APP, Par 4 scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Birdies or better
o Important – Course History, Scrambling, Current Form
THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS
Henrik Stenson (DK $11,800)
· History: DNP
· Form: DNP – DNP – DNP – 27th
· Stats: 150th– SG: OTT, 47th– SG: T2G, 7th– SG: APP, 71st– SG: P
· Analysis: The Big Swede is back in the homeland this week for his nation’s invitational and is the odds on favorite (as he should be) even though his form isn’t in the best shape. That being said, Stenson’s only come through as the favorite once (off the top of my head and some quick searching) so I think I’d look to build him into cash lineups versus GPP lineups. There’s no doubt he’s a course fit, but when he’s not clicking on all cylinders, he’s no better than most of the players in this field.
Alex Noren (DK $10,700): Noren didn’t tee it up here last year as he was competing on the PGA Tour, but he will this year and has been pretty good as one of the premier players in this event in the past finishing T15 in 2017, T12 in 2016, and 1st in 2015 – albeit all on a different course than what they’re playing this week. I expect Noren to get back to his stellar play now that he’s back on the Euro Tour, starting with this week.
Erik Van Rooyen (DK $10,500): 5th last week and had a chance to give Pieters a run, but of course his putting kept him from doing so. EVR is priced higher than we’d like, but his skillset matches what’s needed to contend here, so I have no issues spending up for him, especially when Andrea Pavan is right next to him and boasts a 6th place finish here last year and a 3rd place finish last week.
Julian Suri (DK $8,600)
· History: DNP
· Form:MC – DNP – DNP – DNP
· Stats: 7th– SG: OTT, 9th– SG: T2G, 72nd– SG: APP, 137th– SG: P
· Analysis: Suri’s struggles are becoming more and more apparent, but with the struggles comes lower prices and we’re at a point where we almost have to play him and hope he finds it on the course. I wouldn’t go too heavy on my exposure as there’s some players who are in much better form leading in, but I’d be upset with myself if I didn’t play him at one of his lowest prices on the Euro Tour this year.
Rikard Karlberg (DK $8,300): Karlberg is an old name from when DraftKings first started Euro DFS. He was hot fire that first year and came in as a decent value play until people caught on (and his price rose with his play). Up until about a month and a half ago, he had been fighting to make cuts and has since gone 5th – DNP – 6th – DNP – 4th. His game appears to be on the upswing and looks to be someone we should take a shot at in GPPs as he enters his home invitational.
Aaron Rai (DK $7,800): The course fit screams Rai’s name and last year’s 24th place finish is a good indication that we’re not far off. He’s a beast when it comes to hitting greens in regulation, but like most of our #brand plays, he struggles with the putter. While I’m not one to pump his tires as a core play most weeks, this would be a week where I’d like to have him near core exposures especially since he has some history on the course being played and he played last week (39th).
SALARY RELIEF SECTION
Christopher Sahlstrom (DK $6,200)
· History: None
· Form: MC – DNP – DNP – Win
- Analysis: The 26-year-old swede has been absolutely lighting up the Nordic Golf League this year having won four of his last eight events and making the cut in all of them. Now, before we get all worked up about a new phenom, lets be clear: this isn’t even the Challenge Tour in quality of golfers, but winning is winning and we might have a Ted Potter Jr situation here at some point. I think it’s too early to tell, but he could be worth a dart or two in GPPs especially since he’ll be playing in front of his friends and family.
David Howell (DK $6,400): 30th last week, 24th last year at this event is a decent start to his resume considering price. I’d actually prefer to play him in cash over any of the other two in this category, but I fear that may be the case for our competition as well which is why I probably won’t have him in my GPP pool. Howell’s putting bails out the rest of his game, but a player’s tee to green game doesn’t have the variance of putting, so as long as he doesn’t hit it off the map this week, he should be a solid play to make the cut.
Laurie Canter (DK $6,300): Last week’s dart throw was Justin Walters (58th ) becomes this week’s Canter who finished T14 at the ISPS Handa World Invitational on the Challenge Tour. His European Tour resume this year is pretty barren having only played three events on that Tour dating back to the beginning of the year (WD – MC – MC), but this field is basically a Challenge Tour event once you get past the Top 7 names of the board. Canter hits it well off the tee and is around field average in greens in regulation, which should put him near the middle of the leaderboard come Friday’s cut. I wouldn’t back him at more than 10% exposure this week, but he does offer some much needed salary relief.
CONTRARIAN CORE (GPP PLAYS)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $11,300): No shock that he’s going to be played this week considering the strong course fit and showing signs of life at the WGC event four weeks ago. Fitzy’s been a strong Scandinavian player throughout the last three years finishing T2 in 2017 after winning the event in 2016 – albeit not on this course. It’s tough to make lineups with both he and Noren, so if my money is on the line, I’m taking Fitz.
Adri Arnaus (DK $9,500): Arnaus’ strong performance last week is sure to bump up his ownership this week, especially amongst the Euro sharps. He’s becoming quite the ball striker and someone we can count on for high upside finishes this early in his career. He does have the ability to miss a cut even when he’s a strong course fit, which is why I’d prefer to play him in GPPs over cash games.
Paul Waring (DK $8,000): Defending champion and not even in the Top 4 of the betting markets is a shame. 30th last week on a course that suited his game fine, should be more comfortable following solid play. Even though he’s new to the defending champion title, he should be able to place well again this week.
Lucas Herbert (DK $7,500): 5th here last year and little to no form to speak of the past two months, the long hitting Aussie should be able to attack a lot of these holes with his low irons and should be able to destroy the Par 5’s. He just needs to find something with the putter.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!
– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)