Your weekly guide to Saturday night’s Showdown slate on DraftKings. Ryan Clifford breaks down the top options at CAPT & FLEX, optimal stacking rules, and all of the slate-specific strategy you’ll need to get yourself atop the leaderboards!
I finally got around to recording my entire process for building MME Showdown lineups with the Elite Fantasy optimizer, which is now posted on the website under the main optimizer tutorials section. Here it is: Optimizer Tutorial for DK Showdown.
I won’t be able to record videos this week with the short turnaround time between games. We should all know how to do this by now, but if you don’t, you can always refer to the video above.
Setting Up the Optimizer
You’ll want to jump into our optimizer, which has been preloaded with our projections for the entire week, and then you can set up your initial groups:
- At least 1 QB (Heinicke, Brady CAPT, Brady)
- At most 1 K (Hopkins, Succop)
- At most 1 DST (WAS Football Team, Buccaneers)
- In the position stacks tab, stack CAPT with at least 1 QB/RB/WR/TE/K/DST from the same team
Building the Punt Pool
Next up, we need to put our “punts” into the player pool, as we’ll be building a group with them.
You must pay attention to the inactive list that is announced 60-90 minutes before kickoff. Make sure none of these guys are on that list. Some of them will probably be, and you’ll need to adjust your pool at that point.
Here are the punts you should add to your player pool at this point.
WAS Football Team: Peyton Barber (RB), Jeremy Sprinkle (TE)
Buccaneers: Scotty Miller (WR), Tyler Johnson (WR), Tanner Hudson (TE)
Alex Smith will not dress for this game, leaving the Football Team at the mercy of backup Taylor Heinicke. He is going to serious limit my exposure to Washington players in general, but especially in my CAPT pool. I have to think it’s a near certainty that tonight’s optimal CAPT comes from Tampa’s side of things.
First up, Tom Brady. He has a limitless number of pass catchers available to him. There are plenty of scenarios for him to become the optimal CAPT, especially with the tendency to carry it in himself from the goal line.
These are the league’s No. 3 and No. 4 ranked defenses against opposing running backs. Both backfields split touches (Gibson & McKissic/Jones & Fournette), rendering all running backs uninteresting for CAPT purposes. I will probably have a small taste of J.D. McKissic on DK, where the pass-catching back can rack up fantasy points at a frantic pace.
The receivers are where the money’s at tonight; specifically the Tampa receivers. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown will all be in my CAPT pool. I’ll even have some exposure to Rob Gronkowski, who has as much playoff experience in this game as anyone other than his own quarterback.
Washington will likely be forced to throw early and often, and Tampa’s defense has been susceptible to the pass. I’ll have some exposure here to both Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas.
Here’s a look at my approximate exposures at CAPT:
- Tom Brady 20%
- Chris Godwin 20%
- Mike Evans 20%
- Antonio Brown 15%
- Terry McLaurin 10%
- Logan Thomas 5%
- J.D. McKissic 5%
- Rób Gronkowski 5%
Filling the FLEX Pool
The last step is to fill in the FLEX pool with all of the remaining players that will appear. Again, you may need to adjust when inactives are released, but for now, you should have 35 total players in your pool.
CAPT (8): McKissic, McLaurin, Thomas, Brady, Evans, Godwin, Brown, Gronkowski
QB (2): Heinicke, Brady
RB (5): Gibson, McKissic, Barber, Jones, Fournette
WR (8): McLaurin, C. Sims, S. Sims, Evans, Godwin, Brown, Miller, Johnson
TE (5): Thomas, Sprinkle, Gronkowski, Brate, Hudson
K (2): Hopkins, Succop
DST (2): WAS Football Team, Succop
We’re ready to build! Head back into “Advanced Options” and use the following settings:
- 1-2 unique players
- $48,900 maximum salary
- max 3 offensive players vs. defense
- 15% randomness – MAKE SURE TO TURN ON & CLICK ON “CHANGE ALL PLAYERS” (see image below)
- 0.1 minimum projection included in calculation
Notable Positive Correlations
Taylor Heinicke – Terry McLaurin 0.46
Tom Brady – Chris Godwin 0.41
Taylor Heinicke – Cam Sims 0.40
Taylor Heinicke – Logan Thomas 0.39
Tom Brady – Antonio Brown 0.37
Tom Brady – Mike Evans 0.37
Tom Brady – Rob Gronkowski 0.27
Taylor Heinicke – Steven Sims 0.25
Antonio Gibson – Dustin Hopkins 0.20
Tom Brady – Cameron Brate 0.18
Taylor Heinicke – Dustin Hopkins 0.17
Dustin Hopkins – WAS Football Team DST 0.17
Notable Negative Correlations
WAS Football Team DST – Tom Brady -0.36
WAS Football Team DST – Ronald Jones -0.23
Taylor Heinicke – Buccaneers DST -0.21
WAS Football Team DST – Ryan Succop -0.15
Antonio Gibson – Ronald Jones -0.13
Antonio Gibson – Ryan Succop -0.12
Antonio Gibson – Buccaneers DST -0.12
Dustin Hopkins – Ryan Succop -0.11
Dustin Hopkins – Ronald Jones -0.11
Dustin Hopkins – Buccaneers DST -0.10
WAS Football Team DST – Mike Evans -0.10
WAS Football Team DST – Antonio Brown -0.10
We’re ready to go. Click on “Calculate 50 Lineups” (or less depending on how many you are building) and your first 50 lineups will be built. If you’re like me, and you’re building more than that, click that same button again and spit out 50 more. With the randomness set to 15% and 3 unique players, you shouldn’t get too many duplicate lineups.
When you have your second set of 50 lineups, click on “select lineups” and “move 50 selected” from the drop down menu, and it will move all of the non-duplicated lineups over to your first batch. Keep repeating the process until you have your desired number of lineups.
Click on “export lineups”, make sure to select to proper slate, and your lineups are ready to upload into DK!
Remember to keep an eye on inactives, I’ll be in chat once they’re out.
Follow me on Twitter @RyanClifford