As we continue to wind through the swing season, we’re still feeling the effects of last season’s calendar changes as this week’s championship gets bumped up a month from October. The Sanderson Farms is an easy transition from the score-fest that was the Greenbrier so we should see low scores again this week.
The rough is the primary defense against super low scores, but it’s not that penal. Hitting fairways is a bit tougher here, so there is an emphasis on hitting them, but it’s not an accuracy course by any means as we’ve seen Luke List contend here a few years ago. Last year’s champion, Cam Champ, put on quite the display off the tee which set him up for a lot of easy looks with wedge in his hands.
Obviously, when you’re driving the ball “straight” and putting it out there 330+ yards, most courses will be attackable. Average-to-good ball striking, and a good putting usually get the job done here as most of our former winners and contenders are known as “good putters”.
Three of the four Par 5’s make up the easiest holes on the course which puts Par 5 scoring at the top of our statistical profile for success. If you don’t score on the Par 5’s, players will absolutely need to be perfect everywhere else, especially on the Par 3’s.
- The Course
- Country Club of Jackson
- Par 72
- 7,400 yards
- Bermuda grass greens
- Location: Jackson, MI
- Corollary Courses/Performances: Puerto Rico Open & OHL at Mayakoba have seen similar names on the leaderboard over the years
- Past Champions:
- 2019: Cameron Champ -21 over Corey Conners
- 2018: Ryan Armour -19 over Chesson Hadley
- 2017: Cody Gribble -20 over Chris Kirk, Luke List & Greg Owen
- 2016: Peter Malnati -18 over William McGirt & David Toms
- 2015: Nick Taylor -16 over Jason Bohn & Boo Weekley
KEY STATS TO TARGET
- Strong Emphasis – SG: APP, Birdies or Better, Par 5 Scoring
- Important – P4 Scoring 400-500 yards, APP 125-150y & 200+y
THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS
Nick Taylor (DK $8,300)
- History: 26th– DNP – 23rd– 20th
- Form: 24th
- Stats: 61st– SG: OTT, 36th– SG: APP, 41st– SG: P, 53rd– SG: T2G
- Analysis: Winner of this event in 2015, 24th last week in his first event in over a month and a half so we’ve got a limited amount of “good form” and a former winner whose made the cut in four straight appearances at this course. I think he’s a fine cash play and someone I’d sprinkle into GPPs, but not someone I’d look to build around as far as core players for GPPs as I expect his ownership to be higher than usual and there are plenty of other players with higher upside around him.
Lucas Glover (DK $10,200): Glover is one of the longer tenured players in the field this week and being one of a handful of players with a major to his name puts him near the top of the field as far as class, but he’s aging and has a very balky putter. He’s been better with the putter the past year and his ball striking is elite, so he’ll give himself plenty of opportunities. He’ll probably be highly owned this week as well.
Vaughn Taylor (DK $9,300): 26th– 10th the last two years and back to back T20’s in 2015 & 2016 place him firmly in the Top 3 as far as course history goes. He’s not the best Taylor in the field this week, but he’s not a bad play by any means. I think of VT as a cash play, but he’s making a strong case as a play in all formats as he ranks 1stin birdie opportunities, 12th in Par 5 scoring and 4th in putting over his last 24 rounds.
Byeong Hun An (DK $10,000)
- History: 3rd– MC – 54th– DNP
- Form: 47th
- Stats: 29th– SG: OTT, 31st– SG: APP, 182nd– SG: P, 7th– SG: T2G
- Analysis: Last week’s 47th place finish was a bummer as BHA finished poorly yesterday. The good news is we know why – his putting. He ranks 18th in the field in birdie opportunities, 9th in Par 5 scoring and an abysmal 56th in Par 4 scoring in his last 24 rounds, so if I’m going to have any exposure to him it’ll be at lower than the expected ownership as I can see him letting us down again this week and he’s already a favorite player amongst the DFS Twitter groups.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $11,300): Last week’s winner returns this week and while I’d normally suggest fading a young player following his first win on Tour, I’m not sure I want to do that this week as he hits all of the major categories – he gives himself a ton of birdie opportunities, scores well on Par 4’s and can get hot with the putter. He’d be more of a one-off in GPPs for me this week.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,900): Scheffler continued his strong play last week finishing 7th and did so by hitting a bunch of fairways and making a ton of birdies. As of writing, he’s my pick to win this week, especially if he’s able to carry over the same success from last week, as that was the key to Champ’s victory here last year – bombing drives over 330 yards, keeping it in the fairway and draining putts.
Cheap Form Horses: Doc Redman (DK $7,200), Patrick Rodgers (DK $7,100), Hank Lebioda (DK $6,800)
Luke List (DK $8,000)
- History: DNP – DNP – 2nd– 28th
- Form: DNP
- Stats: 16th– SG: OTT, 112th– SG: APP, 157th– SG: P, 53rd– SG: T2G
- Analysis: #1 in the field in his last 24 rounds in Par 5 scoring. He hasn’t teed it up competitively in over a month so there’s some concern with rust, but the course fit seems to be ideal and his two starts here have resulted in two made cuts (including a runner-up finish) which indicates comfort and confirmation bias.
Sungjae Im (DK $10,500): The PGA Tour’s Ironman continues to peg it every week possible and of course this week is no different. Last year’s missed cut was one of nine missed cuts in 35 events. He’s matured quite a bit since then having only missed one cut in his final eleven events, a span which included four Top 15’s and only one finish outside of the Top 30. He’s a strong play this week.
Corey Conners (DK $9,600): Ranks 4th overall in my model this week and the highlights are ball striking (SG: OTT + SG: APP) and Par 5 scoring. His runner-up finish here last year is a strong indication that his game does indeed fit the course and he’s probably one of the better players in the field this week. It doesn’t hurt that he finished the FEC playoffs on a 23rd – 7th – 21st run and will probably be one of the higher owned players this week.
Honorable Mentions: Grayson Murray (DK $7,600), Charley Hoffman (DK $7,500), Andrew Landry (DK $7,000), Henrik Norlander (DK $6,500)
CORE GPP PLAYS
Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,400): Typical statistical fit for this course (and many, many others), Grillo’s biggest weakness is his putter. If he was even a decent putter, I think he’d have at least a handful of wins on Tour already. The good news is that his only win came during this time of year back in 2016 in a similar field and he’s been off for a month so he’s probably chomping at the bit to get back to the podium.
Wyndham Clark (DK $8,400): Clark finished the FEC playoffs DNP – 31st – 18th so there’s some optimism as he kicks off his 2019-2020 season. He’s made the cut here in both appearances with the better finish coming in his debut, but what really puts him on our radar this week is his Par 5 scoring and putting. He ranks 7th in the field in Par 5 scoring over his last 24 rounds, and 10th in putting. He’s accurate and long enough off the tee where he should give himself plenty of good birdie opportunities.
Sam Burns (DK $7,700): Bermuda Burns missed the cut last week for his first event in two months, so hopefully that was a result of getting back to tournament play. He finished 3rd here last year and 43rd the year prior, so there’s some level of comfort in Mississippi, and he hits most of the key statistical areas highly enough where if he is clicking again, we can expect a better than average result.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!
- Pari (@hitthehighdraw)