Today, I’m writing to you from my 2 ft. x 2 ft. hamster cage aboard Delta Airlines. This will be fun – NOT!
I’ll be in Buffalo, NY tonight with my band, and as the old saying goes in this business – the show must go on. Or the DFS article in this case…
NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ CAROLINA HURRICANES (7:05pm Faceoff)
Game Four (Carolina leads 3-0)
Implied Odds: Carolina 55% | Total: 5.0
Carolina goes for the sweep tonight. With the game in Raleigh, I think there’s a good chance the deed gets done. Just like last time out, I’ll be fading the Barzal line – Carolina did an excellent job shutting them down on Wednesday night. I’ll have some exposure to Nelson and Bailey – Kuhnhackl is optional for me – but I’m pretty much off of the Isles.
For Carolina – still no Ferland. We had a couple pre-game lineup changes in game three, and it appears that they’ll stick with Foegele on that top line with Aho and Williams. I don’t mind having exposure to CAR1, but they aren’t my top line. I have about as much love for them as I do for NYI2. I do REALLY like Staal/Niederreiter/Teravainen, however. They dominated the other night, piling up 10 shots on goal – 20 attempts – in just 12:21 on ice together. They managed to control 62.5% of the Corsi share, and piled up 9 scoring chances, 6 high dangers – and did manage to put one in the net at 5v5.
Wallmark/Svechnikov/McGinn were surprisingly good, as well, as they controlled 73.7% of the Corsi share against the Islanders, and had an even higher rate of shot attempts than the Staal line. They are pretty cheap, and fit nicely with the Stars big guns.
Favorite GPP Stacks: NYI2 – Nelson/Bailey (Kuhnhackl optional); CAR1 – Aho/Williams/Foegele (Faulk optional); CAR2 – Staal/Teravainen/Niederreiter (Hamilton and/or Slavin optional); CAR3 – Wallmark/Svechnikov/McGinn
Favorite Cash Options: C Mathew Barzal (NYI); W Josh Bailey (NYI); W Anthony Beauvillier (NYI); D Scott Mayfield (NYI); W Teuvo Teravainen (CAR); W Warren Foegele (CAR); W Andrei Svechnikov (CAR); D Justin Faulk (CAR); D Dougie Hamilton (CAR)
Favorite Goalies: Robin Lehner (NYI); Curtis McElhinney (CAR)
DALLAS STARS @ ST. LOUIS BLUES (9:35pm Faceoff)
Game Five (Series tied 2-2)
Implied Odds: St. Louis 59% | Total: 5.0
Game five is always a pivotal point in a series with the teams tied at 2. St. Louis has the home-ice edge tonight, but this should be a tight one.
The O’Reilly line did a fantastic job on home ice in games one and two, and they should be even better tonight after Jaden Schwartz joined the trio earlier in the week (Perron was skating with them early in the series). I’ll have lots of exposure to STL1 tonight, and will be hoping for their ownership to be lower than usual, as they predictably struggled in Dallas.
I have not liked the looks of Schenn/Sundqvist/Perron, and outside of Perron in cash games, I don’t think I’ll have any exposure to them tonight. Instead, I’m going to go right back to Bozak/Thomas/Maroon, who have been playing at a ridiculously high level since the last few weeks of the regular season. I do worry about them seeing a bunch of Radek Faksa, but to be honest, it doesn’t seem like the Blues will do any kind of hard-matching, so their time against DAL3 should be limited.
For Dallas, there’s no way I’m fading either of the top two lines. The only thing I worry about is which trio will see the Blues shut-down pair of Parayko/Bouwmeester. I’m assuming Seguin will be the one to draw their coverage, which makes me like the Hintz/Radulov/Benn line slightly more. Also of note: the St. Louis penalty kill ranks 8th of 8 teams still alive in the playoffs – killing just 75% of their opponent’s chances. Don’t be afraid to roll out Seguin/Zuccarello/Hintz/Benn/Klingberg with some of the cheaper stacks. It won’t be as popular of a build, and the ceiling for those guys is tremendous. I’ll have a few Dallas “Josh-stacks” in my lineups tonight with Radulov, as well.
Favorite GPP Stacks: DAL1 – Seguin/Zuccarello/Dickinson; DAL2 – Benn/Radulov/Hintz; DAL PP1 – Seguin/Zuccarello/Hintz/Benn/Klingberg (Radulov optional for mega-stack); STL1 – O’Reilly/Tarasenko/Schwartz;STL3 – Bozak/Thomas/Maroon
Favorite Cash Options: C Tyler Seguin (DAL); C Roope Hintz (DAL); W Alexander Radulov (DAL); D Miro Heiskanen (DAL); C Tyler Bozak (STL); W Vladimir Tarasenko (STL); W David Perron (STL); D Alex Pietrangelo (STL); D Colton Parayko (STL)
Favorite Goalies: Ben Bishop (DAL); Jordan Binnington (STL)
1) CAR2 – Staal/Teravainen/Niederreiter (Hamilton and/or Slavin optional)
2) DAL2 – Hintz/Benn/Radulov
3) DAL1 – Seguin/Zuccarello/Dickinson
1) STL1 – O’Reilly/Tarasenko/Schwartz
2) DAL PP1 – Seguin/Zuccarello/Hintz/Benn/Klingberg (Radulov optional for mega-stack)
3) CAR1 – Aho/Williams/Foegele (Faulk optional)
4) NYI2 – Nelson/Bailey (Kuhnhackl optional)
1) STL3 – Bozak/Thomas/Maroon
2) CAR3 – Wallmark/Svechnikov/McGinn
1) Tyler Seguin, DAL (DK $7400 FD $8500)
2) Mathew Barzal, NYI (DK $6100 FD $6100)
3) Roope Hintz, DAL (DK $4400 FD $5100)
4) Tyler Bozak, STL (DK $4100 FD $4400)
1) Alexander Radulov, DAL (DK $7300 FD $7800)
2) Vladimir Tarasenko, STL (DK $6900 FD $8000)
3) Teuvo Teravainen, CAR (DK $6300 FD $6700)
4) David Perron, STL (DK $4600 FD $5400)
5) Josh Bailey, NYI (DK $4400 FD $5400)
6) Warren Foegele, CAR (DK $3600 FD $4300)
7) Andrei Svechnikov, CAR (DK $3900 FD $4200)
8) Anthony Beauvillier, NYI (DK $3400 FD $4200)
1) Justin Faulk, CAR (DK $4600 FD $5400)
2) Dougie Hamilton, CAR (DK $5800 FD $5600)
3) Alex Pietrangelo, STL (DK $6100 FD $6600)
4) Miro Heiskanen, DAL (DK $4300 FD $4200)
5) Colton Parayko, STL (DK $5300 FD $5100)
6) Scott Mayfield, NYI (DK $3300 FD $3500)
1) Curtis McElhinney, CAR (Cash or GPP – DK $8000 FD $8400)
2) Ben Bishop, DAL (Cash or GPP – DK $7500 FD $8700)
3) Robin Lehner, NYI (Cash or GPP – DK $7300 FD $7800)
4) Jordan Binnington, STL (GPP only – DK $7800 FD $8200)