We’ve got an early lock today – with Carolina/Washington dropping the puck at 3:05 this afternoon. All four remaining game twos will face-off throughout the day. Here’s a quick overview of the day’s action, followed by a game-by-game breakdown of my favorite GPP stacks, cash game players and goalies.
CAROLINA HURRICANES @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS (3:05pm Faceoff)
Game Two (Washington Leads 1-0)
Implied Odds: Washington 59% | Total: 5.5
The Eastern Conference could be in trouble if the Caps power play is going to start clicking again. They were 2/4 on Thursday night, with both Ovechkin and Backstrom getting power play goals. 5v5 was a different story for the top line, however, as they controlled just 23.8% of the Corsi share. The Caps allowed 16 shot attempts in just 10 minutes with Backstrom/Ovechkin/Wilson on the ice together – mainly to the Jordan Staal line. The Kuznetsov line didn’t fare much better, controlling just 22.7% of shot attempts, against a very good Carolina top line. Eller’s line? Just 20% Corsi For at even strength. The Canes thoroughly dominated Washington at evens, holding the Caps to just 18 shots on goal. This team is going to need to step up their game, because they certainly can’t expect to consistently convert at a 50% clip on the power play.
So where do we go for DFS? Not with Caps. I’m avoiding them like the plague until I see some improvement with their play at even strength. I tend to think this game will not feature a whole lot of scoring, but I will have some exposure to a couple Carolina lines.
First off – of course I want some CAR1 lineups. This has been one of the more underrated lines in NHL DFS this season. They consistently produce, and have flashed GPP-winning upside at times. With Aho/Niederreiter/Williams on the ice together – for just 10:51 – the team got 8 shots on goal and 6 scoring chances – 3 of those high-dangers. You’re getting full PP1 correlation with this stack, and Justin Faulk – the PP1 point-man – should be considered a must-add, as he had over 10 minutes with CAR1 at 5v5, as well.
The other stack I’m interested in is the third line – Svechnikov/Martinook/McGinn. They’re cheap enough to make anyone else fit, and absolutely shredded the Eller line on Thursday night. Be sure to check pre-game line rushes, as Svechnikov was getting shifts with numerous skaters towards the end of game one. Whichever line he skates with, that’s the line I’ll want exposure too.
Despite my affinity for Carolina in GPP’s, I do think Holtby is one of the top 2 cash-game goalies on the slate. We all know by now that Carolina attempts more shots on goal than any other team in the league, and Holtby is a pretty decent-sized favorite on home ice.
Favorite GPP Stacks: CAR1 – Aho/Niederreiter/Williams/Faulk; CAR3 – Svechnikov/Martinook/McGinn
Favorite Cash Options: W Justin Williams (CAR); D Dougie Hamilton (CAR); W Alex Ovechkin (WSH); W Carl Hagelin (WSH); D Matt Niskanen (WSH)
Favorite Goalies: Braden Holtby (WSH)
DALLAS STARS @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS (6:05pm Faceoff)
Game Two (Dallas Leads 1-0)
Implied Odds: Nashville 59% | Total: 5.0
Full disclosure: I predicted Nashville to reach the Stanley Cup Finals…and I may have been wrong. I’m still pretty confident in some of my other choices, including Tampa and Pittsburgh – who are each two games down – but I’m immediately regretting my Nashville pick in this series.
There wasn’t much in the way of line-matching in game one. NSH1 spent most of their ice time against DAL1, but Seguin also saw some of the Bonino line. NSH3 also saw some of the Stars second line, with NSH2 skating against DAL3 for the most part.
As I wrote on Wednesday, if NSH1 is seeing DAL1, that’s a matchup I want to target. In 10 minutes together at 5v5, NSH1 controlled 72.7% of the Corsi share, with the Preds piling up 16 shot attempts with their top line on the ice. Otherwise, it was all Dallas. I’ll probably wind up with some shares of DAL2, which looked like the Stars best line in game one. I won’t have too much exposure to this game in general, as these teams have combined for more than 5 goals just once, in 5 meetings this season.
Ben Bishop is my favorite goalie for cash games, and even has a little bit of upside for GPP’s, as well.
Favorite GPP Stacks: NSH1 – Forsberg/Arvidsson/Johansen; DAL2 – Benn/Zuccarello/Hintz
Favorite Cash Options: C Roope Hintz (DAL); W Alexander Radulov (DAL); D Ben Lovejoy (DAL); W Viktor Arvidsson (NSH); D P.K. Subban (NSH)
Favorite Goalies: Ben Bishop (DAL)
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS @ BOSTON BRUINS (8:05pm Faceoff)
Game Two (Toronto Leads 1-0)
Implied Odds: Boston 56% | Total: 6.0
After a 4-1 victory over Boston on Thursday night, I think we’ll see a lot of ownership move over to Toronto tonight. We had a pretty straightforward hard-match in game one – TOR1/BOS1, TOR2/BOS2, TOR3/BOS3. This was a pretty high-event game from both sides, with 71 total shots on goal.
Boston’s biggest issue, was their top line’s inability to slow down Tavares and Marner. I think the contrarian move tonight would be to roster BOS1, and hope for one of those monster games they are capable of. TOR1 is NOT a defensively-sound line. BOS1 should have a ton of chances, and I think it’d be wise to strike now, when ownership starts to move away from them. That doesn’t mean I don’t like TOR1, though. The Leafs had 9 shots on goal and 5 high danger scoring chances in the 14:19 that their top line was on the ice at 5v5. In addition, the Bruins PK was ranked #27 over the last five weeks of the regular season. With the added special teams upside, Tavares and Marner are scary fades tonight – I fully expect them to be the highest owned stack today, though.
With the poor PK in recent weeks, Auston Matthews is interesting to me. A mini-stack of Matthews and Morgan Rielly is something I’ll use some to differentiate chalky builds. Rielly is skating almost exclusively with Matthews at 5v5 on the road, and they have the power play correlation, as well. I’m not as high on TOR2 as a full stack, though, as they were outplayed pretty handily by Boston’s second-liners in game one. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on a big TOR PP1 stack of Tavares/Marner/Matthews/Rielly. You’ll need some serious value to fill out the rest of your lineup, but by the looks of Tuukka Rask’s recent form, this build could go a long way if the Leafs can get in his head again.
Rask does have 56% implied odds to win on home ice, though, and should once again face a fairly high shot volume, so I don’t have an issue with him in cash games. Andersen is more of a GPP play for me, but I don’t mind him for cash games, either.
Favorite GPP Stacks: BOS1 – Bergeron/Marchand/Pastrnak (McAvoy optional); TOR1 – Tavares/Marner (Hyman optional);TOR PP1 –Matthews/Tavares/Marner/Rielly
Favorite Cash Options: C John Tavares (TOR); C Auston Matthews (TOR); W William Nylander (TOR); D Morgan Rielly (TOR); W Brad Marchand (BOS); W Karson Kuhlman (BOS); D Charlie McAvoy (BOS)
Favorite Goalies: Frederik Andersen (TOR); Tuukka Rask (BOS)
COLORADO AVALANCHE @ CALGARY FLAMES (10:35pm Faceoff)
Game Two (Calgary Leads 1-0)
Implied Odds: Calgary 67% | Total: 6.0
It’ll be another late night for east-coasters, with the fourth and final game of the day facing off at 10:35pm eastern time. The Flames were victorious in game one, shutting out the Avs 4-0. Things looked easy for the Flames, and I can’t imagine them dropping game two after seeing the first one. The Avs switched up their lines in the third period on Thursday night, reuniting MacKinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog. Calgary wisely stuck the “3M” line on Colorado’s top line all game long, so I’m not too high on COL1 here.
I will have some CGY1 exposure. They controlled 61.5% of the Corsi share in game one, and generated a ton of shots against Colorado’s depth. I think their ownership will be lower than Toronto and Boston’s top lines, but have similar upside.
CGY3 is a cheaper stack I will use a bit tonight. James Neal has been playing great in recent weeks, and although they won’t get a whole lot of ice time, the matchup against Colorado’s bottom-six forwards is a good one.
If you’re fading Flames, Philipp Grubauer would be a high-upside, low-owned GPP goalie. He’ll see a big shot volume, and I could see him stealing a game at some point this series.
Favorite GPP Stacks: CGY1 – Monahan/Gaudreau/Lindholm; CGY3 – Neal/Bennett/Jankowski
Favorite Cash Options: C Nathan MacKinnon (COL); C Carl Soderberg (COL); D Tyson Barrie (COL); W Matthew Tkachuk (CGY); D Mark Giordano (CGY)
Favorite Goalies: Philipp Grubauer (COL)
1) CGY1 – Gaudreau/Monahan/Lindholm
2) BOS1 – Bergeron/Marchand/Pastrnak (McAvoy optional)
3) TOR PP1 – Matthews/Tavares/Marner/Rielly
4) TOR1 – Tavares/Marner (Hyman optional)
1) CAR1 – Aho/Niederreiter/Williams/Faulk
2) NSH1 – Forsberg/Arvidsson/Johansen
3) DAL2 – Benn/Zuccarello/Hintz
1) CAR3 – Svechnikov/Martinook/McGinn
2) CGY3 – Neal/Bennett/Jankowski
1) Nathan MacKinnon, COL (DK $6900 FD $8600)
2) John Tavares, TOR (DK $6700 FD $8300)
3) Auston Matthews, TOR (DK $6800 FD $7700)
4) Carl Soderberg, COL (DK $4600 FD $4800)
5) Roope Hintz, DAL (DK $3200 FD $4400)
1) Alexander Radulov, DAL (DK $6500 $7500)
2) Viktor Arvidsson, NSH (DK $6500 FD $7500)
3) Matthew Tkachuk, CGY (DK $6200 FD $6700)
4) Brad Marchand, BOS (DK $7100 FD $8600)
5) Alex Ovechkin, WSH (DK $7500 FD $9100)
6) William Nylander, TOR (DK $4600 FD $5400)
7) Justin Williams, CAR (DK $5000 FD $5300)
8) Carl Hagelin, WSH (DK $3100 FD $3700)
9) Karson Kuhlman, BOS (DK $3100 FD $3400)
1) Dougie Hamilton, CAR (DK $5300 FD $6000)
2) Tyson Barrie, COL (DK $5500 FD $6200)
3) P.K. Subban, NSH (DK $5200 FD $5900)
4) Ben Lovejoy, DAL (DK $3000 FD $3500)
5) Charlie McAvoy, BOS (DK $5000 FD $4600)
6) Mark Giordano, CGY (DK $6200 FD $7100)
7) Matt Niskanen, WSH (DK $3900 FD $4300)
8) Morgan Rielly, TOR (DK $5400 FD $6400)
1) Ben Bishop, DAL (Cash or GPP – DK $7200 FD $8400)
2) Braden Holtby, WSH (Cash or GPP – DK $8300 FD $8900)
3) Tuukka Rask, BOS (Cash or GPP – DK $7700 FD $8400)
4) Frederik Anderson, TOR (Cash or GPP – DK $7600 FD $7800)
5) Philipp Grubauer, COL (GPP only – DK $7000 FD $7600)