Happy 4/20 y’all! I’m headed down to Tallahassee, FL for a gig with my band tonight, so I’ll waste no time getting to tonight’s breakdown.
Happy 4/20 y’all! I’m headed down to Tallahassee, FL for a gig with my band tonight, so I’ll waste no time getting to tonight’s breakdown. We have three games on the agenda today, with lock coming at 3:00pm EST for the second consecutive Saturday. Here’s a quick overview of these matchups, followed by some analysis on my favorite GPP stacks, cash-game plays and goaltenders.
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DALLAS STARS @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS
- 3:05pm Faceoff
- Game Five (Series Tied 2-2)
- Implied Odds: Nashville 59% | Total: 5.0
The series heads back to Nashville after the Stars put a whoopin’ on the Preds in game four. Nashville has a history of being able to bounce back after big losses, though, and I tend to favor them on home ice tonight.
I’m not sure how much exposure I’ll have to either of the top lines, but probably will have a bit of exposure to Johansen/Arvidsson/Forsberg. The Preds line I really like the looks of if Bonino/Smith/Watson. My only fear with NSH3 is that they’ll see a lot of the Faksa line, which wouldn’t be the best matchup for the trio. The way the lines are built, though, I’d expect to see Sissons/Granlund/Jarnkrok take that matchup for the most part.
I’m not too interested in the Dallas side of things – I really think Nashville bounces back here. I was successful with my TOR1 fade last night, and DAL1 is the victim for me tonight.
Favorite GPP Stacks: NSH1 – Johansen/Forsberg/Arvidsson;NSH3 – Bonino/Smith/Watson
Favorite Cash Options: C Roope Hintz (DAL); C Jason Spezza (DAL); W Alexander Radulov (DAL); D Roman Polak (DAL); W Viktor Arvidsson (NSH); W Austin Watson (NSH); D Ryan Ellis (NSH)
Favorite Goalies: Ben Bishop (DAL); Pekka Rinne (NSH)
WINNIPEG JETS @ ST. LOUIS BLUES
- 7:05pm Faceoff
- Game Six (St. Louis Leads 3-2)
- Implied Odds: St. Louis 56% | Total: 5.5
Here’s where I’ll have my most exposure tonight. The Blues switched their lines up a bit. David Perron heads to the top line with O’Reilly and Tarasenko, while Brayden Schenn moves back to center and gets reunited with Jaden Schwartz, pushing Sundqvist to the wing. I like both of these lines on home ice, although I tend to prefer the Schenn/Schwartz line – in fact, they may be my favorite stack on the entire slate. Colton Parayko and Jay Bouwmeester will skate almost exclusively with STL1 at 5v5, with Pietrangelo being the add-on for your STL2 stacks. If you’re looking for a one-off to pair with a defenseman to finish out your lineup, Schenn and Pietrangelo correlate fully at even strength and on the PP1.
On Winnipeg’s side, I need to have some exposure to the top line. With the Blues lineup in flux, it could take a bit for guys to get their communication and on-ice assignments in place. Perron is changing from right to left wing, Sundqvist is moving from center to wing, Schenn from wing to center…I don’t expect everything to gel immediately, and WPG1 can make you pay dearly for coverage mistakes. I went over how much better this line has fared on the road in playoff games over the past two seasons – this sets up to be a nice spot for them. Dustin Byfuglien would be the preferred add-on on D.
Favorite GPP Stacks: STL1 – O’Reilly/Tarasenko/Perron (Parayko or Bouwmeester optional); STL2 – Schenn/Schwartz/Sundqvist (Pietrangelo optional); WPG1 – Scheifele/Wheeler/Connor
Favorite Cash Options: C Mark Scheifele (WPG); W Patrik Laine (WPG); D Tyler Myers (WPG); W Vladimir Tarasenko (STL); W Robert Thomas (STL); D Alex Pietrangelo (STL)
Favorite Goalies: Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)
CAROLINA HURRICANES @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS
- 8:05pm Faceoff
- Game Five (Series Tied 2-2)
- Implied Odds: Washington 56% | Total: 5.5
The series is tied, and both teams are losing players left and right – T.J. Oshie is the latest victim. Ovechkin and Wilson will skate with Kuznetsov tonight, with Backstrom centering Vrana and Hagelin on the second line. I like Carolina here. The top line is performing well with Teravainen back on Aho’s wing. I’m not sure what matchup they’ll draw tonight, but I don’t suspect there will be much, if any, line matching going on in Washington.
The main attraction for me on this Hurricane’s team is actually their defensemen. Now, I’m not going to go out of the way to stack multiple pieces on D, but Hamilton, Faulk and Slavin are all playing incredible on the offensive side of things this series, and each of them provide a ton of upside for GPP’s. If you’re looking to fill out your lineup with a d-man or two, definitely consider these three.
Warren Foegele has arguably been Carolina’s top player this series, and is getting well-deserved minutes on the second line. I’ll have some exposure to this group too, as I don’t really see the Caps being able to manage the high pace they’ve been seeing without Oshie out there for almost 20 minutes per game.
Ovechkin is a tough fade on home ice…a really tough fade. If he was seeing significant ice time against that third line, I’d be all-in, but I’m pretty confident in the Canes top six forwards and top defensive pair to slow them down enough to AT LEAST keep them from hitting GPP value. The power play is always what scares me with #8, and although I wouldn’t fault anyone for wanting exposure to them on home ice, I’m personally going to be fading – maybe just one lineup out of 20, or something like that.
To round out my cheaper options, I will have WSH3 in the mix tonight. They’ve looked solid, and should get a lot of time against this Hurricanes bottom-six forward group, which looks awful thin without Svechnikov, Ferland or Martinook in the lineup.
Favorite GPP Stacks: CAR1 –Aho/Teravainen/Niederreiter; CAR2 – Staal/Williams/Foegele; WSH3 – Eller/Connolly/Burakovsky
Favorite Cash Options: W Teuvo Teravainen (CAR); D Dougie Hamilton (CAR); C Lars Eller (WSH); W Alex Ovechkin (WSH); D John Carlson (WSH)
Favorite Goalies: Braden Holtby (WSH)
- WPG1 – Scheifele/Wheeler/Connor (Byfuglien optional)
- NSH1 – Johansen/Forsberg/Arvidsson
- STL1 – O’Reilly/Tarasenko/Perron (Parayko or Bouwmeester optional)
- STL2 – Schenn/Schwartz/Sundqvist (Pietrangelo optional)
- CAR1 – Aho/Teravainen/Niederreiter
- CAR2 – Staal/Williams/Foegele
- NSH3 – Bonino/Smith/Watson
- WSH3 – Eller/Connolly/Burakovsky
- Mark Scheifele, WPG (DK $6700 FD $8000)
- Roope Hintz, DAL (DK $4100 FD $4600)
- Lars Eller, WSH (DK $4000 FD $4400)
- Jason Spezza, DAL (DK $2900 FD $3600)
- Alexander Radulov, DAL (DK $6600 FD $7500)
- Alex Ovechkin, WSH (DK $7400 FD $8700)
- Vladimir Tarasenko, STL (DK $6800 FD $8300)
- Viktor Arvidsson, NSH (DK $6100 FD $6700)
- Teuvo Teravainen, CAR (DK $5500 FD $6200)
- Patrik Laine, WPG (DK $5700 FD $7100)
- Austin Watson, NSH (DK $3500 FD $3200)
- Robert Thomas, STL (DK $2700 FD $3400)
- Dougie Hamilton, CAR (DK $5900 FD $6300)
- John Carlson, WSH (DK $6400 FD $6700)
- Alex Pietrangelo, STL (DK $6200 FD $6400)
- Ryan Ellis, NSH (DK $4800 FD $4800)
- Tyler Myers, WPG (DK $3400 FD $3800)
- Roman Polak, DAL (DK $3000 FD $3500)
- Braden Holtby, WSH (Cash or GPP – DK $8000 FD $8400)
- Pekka Rinne, NSH (Cash or GPP – DK $7900 FD $8600)
- Ben Bishop, DAL (GPP only – DK $7500 FD $8500)
- Connor Hellebuyck, WPG (GPP only – DK $7400 FD $7900)