I’m back at the airport this morning, and will spend the next few minutes breaking down tonight’s 2-game slate. Here’s the overview, followed my some analysis on my favorite GPP stacks, cash-game plays and goalies…
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS @ BOSTON BRUINS (7:20pm Faceoff)
Game Five (Series Tied 2-2)
Implied Odds: Boston 56% | Total: 5.5
The series moves back to Boston tied at two games a piece. If I were a Jackets fan, I’d be a little concerned with the team’s inability to shut-down the top line of Bergeron/Marchand/Pastrnak. They aren’t going anywhere, and Columbus will have a tough time winning two of the next three games if they can’t slow these guys down. I’ll continue to roll out BOS1 tonight.
Krejci’s line seemed to take a step forward with David Backes joining him and DeBrusk. The Bruins managed to get almost one shot on goal for every minute these three were on the ice together in game four. With Bergeron and Kuraly taking the defensive assignments tonight Krejci could see significant time against Wennberg/Texier/Dzingel (assuming they stay together), which is a really nice matchup for BOS2.
Boone Jenner has about been the best player on the ice for Columbus. If Anderson stays on his wing, I love the two of them as a mini-stack, and could even throw in Dubinsky to make the whole line extremely affordable. The Blue Jackets have had a ton of shorthanded chances, and those are coming from Jenner and Anderson – with the SH points bonus, there is a lot of added value with those two.
Favorite GPP Stacks: CBJ3 – Jenner/Anderson (Dubinsky optional); BOS1 – Bergeron/Marchand/Pastrnak; BOS2 – Krejci/DeBrusk/Backes
Favorite Cash Options: C Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ); C Boone Jenner (CBJ); W Cam Atkinson (CBJ); D David Savard (CBJ); C Sean Kuraly (BOS); W Brad Marchand (BOS); W David Pastrnak (BOS); W Jake DeBrusk (BOS); D Matt Grzelcyk (BOS)
Favorite Goalies: Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ); Tuukka Rask (BOS)
COLORADO AVALANCHE @ SAN JOSE SHARKS (10:05pm Faceoff)
Game Five (Series tied 2-2)
Implied Odds: San Jose 56% | Total: 5.5
I believe this is the first time we’ve seen the projected total on this game drop below 6 goals. Colorado seems to have the momentum heading into tonight’s game five. I certainly wouldn’t fade COL1 if you’re doing more than one lineup. They’ll have a ton of ownership, yes. They’re expensive, sure. But nobody comes close to the ceilings for both MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen and BOS1 on this slate. The Avs piled up 10 shots on goal in the 14 minutes that their top line was on the ice in game four. Neither team has been hard-matching, so you can expect more of the same from them tonight. Barrie or Zadorov are the defensemen you want to add-on to your COL1 stacks.
I was hoping for more from Compher/Wilson/Kerfoot. These three guys all performed well on separate lines in round one, but the Avs managed just two shots on goal in 8 minutes when this line was on the ice on Thursday night. Soderberg/Nieto/Calvert is the trio I’ll target as a cheaper stack on the Avs side. They had a number of really good chances in game four, and should avoid the Sharks top-4 defensemen for the most part tonight.
I’m not too high on the Sharks tonight. The Thornton line continues to look really good, and is another cheaper stack you can use to pair with COL1 or BOS1.The Sharks controlled 68.4% of the Corsi share with SJ3 on the ice in game four, put 9 shots on goal and generated 6 scoring chances in 8 minutes with Thornton’s line on the ice.
I have to be honest – I’m not really feeling the Sharks top two lines tonight. I’ll likely have a couple lineups out of 20 with each of them, but like Columbus, I’ll be fading them heavily tonight. I’m looking at games two (last time in SJ) and game four (last game), and SJ1 was on the ice for about 22 combined minutes in those games. In that time, the Sharks managed just 24 attempts, 10 shots and 8 chances. SJ2 spent about the same amount of time on the ice in those two games, and managed just 21 attempts, 9 shots and 6 chances. Couture had the big outing in game three, but otherwise the Sharks top-six has been uninspiring, to be kind.
Favorite GPP Stacks: COL1 – MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen/Barrie or Zadorov; COL3 – Soderberg/Nieto/Calvert; SJ3 – Thornton/Labanc/Sorensen
Favorite Cash Options: C Nathan MacKinnon (COL); W Colin Wilson (COL); W Matt Nieto (COL); D Tyson Barrie (COL); D Nikita Zadorov (COL); W Timo Meier (SJ); W Evander Kane (SJ); D Brent Burns (SJ); D Erik Karlsson (SJ)
Favorite Goalies: Philipp Grubauer (COL); Martin Jones (SJ)
1) COL1 – MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen/Barrie or Zadorov
2) BOS1 – Bergeron/Marchand/Pastrnak (McAvoy or Chara optional)
1) BOS2 – Krejci/DeBrusk/Backes (Krug optional)
1) CBJ3 – Jenner/Anderson (Dubinsky optional)
2) SJ3 – Thornton/Labanc/Sorensen
3) COL3 – Soderberg/Nieto/Calvert
1) Nathan MacKinnon, COL (DK $7300 FD $9200)
2) Boone Jenner, CBJ (DK $4300 FD $4600)
3) Pierre-Luc Dubois, CBJ (DK $5000 FD $5300)
4) Sean Kuraly, BOS (DK $3800 FD $3500)
1) David Pastrnak, BOS (DK $6600 FD $8500)
2) Brad Marchand, BOS (DK $6500 FD $7600)
3) Cam Atkinson, CBJ (DK $5800 FD $7000)
4) Timo Meier, SJ (DK $5500 FD $6400)
5) Jake DeBrusk, BOS (DK $5200 FD $5400)
6) Evander Kane, SJ (DK $5600 FD $6200)
7) Matt Nieto, COL (DK $3300 FD $4000)
8) Colin Wilson, COL (DK $4000 FD $4200)
1) Brent Burns, SJ (DK $6600 FD $7500)
2) Erik Karlsson, SJ (DK $5800 FD $7100)
3) Tyson Barrie, COL (DK $6000 FD $6400)
4) David Savard, CBJ (DK $4100 FD $3800)
5) Nikita Zadorov, COL (DK $2900 FD $3500)
6) Matt Grzelcyk, BOS (DK $3700 FD $3900)
1) Philipp Grubauer, COL (Cash or GPP – DK $7500 FD $7900)
2) Tuukka Rask, BOS (Cash or GPP – DK $8000 FD $8600)
3) Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ (Cash or GPP – DK $7600 FD $7700)
4) Martin Jones, SJ (GPP only – DK $7700 FD $8400)