Another doubleheader is on tap tonight, with Boston visiting Columbus, and San Jose in Denver for their respective game three’s. Here’s a quick overview of the two matchups, followed by some analysis and my favorite plays for your DFS lineups:
BOSTON BRUINS @ COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS (7:05pm Faceoff)
Game Three (Series Tied 1-1)
Implied Odds: Columbus 54% | Total: 5.5
The Blue Jackets take over home-ice advantage heading into game three. Columbus shouldn’t be doing any kind of hard-match, but they mainly used Dubois and Jenner against the Lightning top line in the first round. Based on yesterday’s practice, it looks like Atkinson/Dubois/Panarin will be back together for game three. It will be interesting to see how Tortorella deploys them against Boston. At home against Tampa Bay, Duchene/Atkinson/Dzingel saw the Lightning’s third and fourth-liners almost exclusively. Duchene skated with Texier and Foligno yesterday, although it’s important to note that Josh Anderson had a maintainence day – where he fits in is going to alter at least one of the lines from yesterday’s skate (Dzingel/Bjorkstrand/Wennberg was the third line).
I think I’m going to bite on the BOS1 bait here. They’ve played remarkably well with Heinen, and without any kind of hard-match, they should have some opportunities. The Columbus PK has fallen to 4th in the playoff season, while Boston’s power play is ranked 2nd (behind only Columbus) – going 8-for24 thus far. You’ll still want to consider adding McAvoy or Chara to the stack, as they’ll skate almost exclusively with the top line.
As long as Karson Kuhlman is in the lineup, I’ll also have some love for the second line – he’ll skate with Krejci and DeBrusk. Again, this line has been at it’s best with Kuhlman. They had extended time together during the regular season, and the Bruins scored an average of 7 even strength goals per 60 minutes with that line on the ice. They’re generating a ton of attempts, shots and chances, and have an xGF/60 of 3.3.
For Columbus, I’ll be very interested in whatever their second line looks like. At the moment, I’m anticipating it to be Duchene/Foligno/Anderson. Texier practiced with the first two, but the latter was benched for a majority of the third period on Saturday night in Boston. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Texier come out of the lineup. You’ll have to keep your eye on pre-game line rushes, though, as that is certainly not confirmed.
If you’re MME’ing, it would also be wise to have some exposure to CBJ1. They were one of the most productive trios in hockey during the regular season, the Columbus power play is converting at a 38.9% clip in the playoffs, and there’s an outside chance that they see time against the Bruins depth. I’m not sure I would force them into single entry lineups, but I will definitely have exposure in multi-entry.
Favorite GPP Stacks: BOS1 – Marchand/Bergeron/Heinen (McAvoy or Chara optional); BOS2 – Krejci/DeBrusk/Kuhlman; CBJ1 – Dubois/Atkinson/Panarin; CBJ2 – Duchene/Foligno/Anderson (check pre-game rushes to confirm)
Favorite Cash Options: C Sean Kuraly (BOS); W Brad Marchand (BOS); David Pastrnak (BOS); W Jake DeBrusk (BOS); D Torey Krug (BOS); C Boone Jenner (CBJ); W Cam Atkinson (CBJ); W Oliver Bjorkstrand (CBJ); D David Savard (CBJ)
Favorite Goalies: Tuukka Rask (BOS); Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ)
SAN JOSE SHARKS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE (10:05pm Faceoff)
Game Three (Series Tied 1-1)
Implied Odds: Colorado 55% | Total: 6.0
Colorado takes control of home-ice advantage heading into game three, in Denver. The Sharks look to be without Pavelski and Donskoi, once again, meaning Gustav Nyquist will remain on the top line, with Lukas Radil on the second line. I think a case can be made for either. Both of these top lines haven’t missed a beat with the changes. It’s a small sample (just 23-ish minutes), but SJ2 has a 3.4 xGF/60 thus far, while SJ1 –with a slightly larger sample (37-ish minutes) – comes in at a 3.5 xGF/60. Both of these are very good numbers, and while Colorado’s possession numbers have been good – so have these Sharks…something’s gotta give. Burns is the add-on for SJ1 stacks, and Karlsson for SJ2.
For Colorado, I already mentioned their possession numbers – extremely good. I’m going to want exposure to all of these lines, to be honest. Not much else to say about MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen – these three absolutely dominate, and seem to score at will most times. On home ice, Tyson Barrie will be with them at all times – and is an absolute must-add to your COL1 stacks. It makes them ridiculously expensive, but that just means you need to find the correct cheap stack to pair with them. (Hint: CBJ2/BOS2)
For cheaper options, I like both the Avs second and third lines. Soderberg/Kerfoot/Wilson (3.9 xGF/60) and Compher/Nieto/Calvert (2.2 xGF/60) have all played really well together. Each are controlling nearly 60% of the Corsi share during the playoffs, and although it’s a small sample size (20 minutes) – the Avs are generating a huge number of scoring chances and high dangers with COL2 on the ice.
On paper, this game has the potential to be a shoot-out. I definitely trust Grubauer more than Jones, but I could see any of the four goalies getting lit up tonight, so I’d say correlate your goalie the best you can, and move on.
Favorite GPP Stacks: SJ1 – Couture/Meier/Nyquist (Burns optional); SJ2 – Hertl/Kane (Radil and/or Karlsson optional); COL1 – MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen/Barrie; COL2 – Soderberg/Wilson/Kerfoot; COL3 – Compher/Nieto/Calvert
Favorite Cash Options: W Tomas Hertl (SJ); W Timo Meier (SJ); W Marcus Sorensen (SJ); D Brent Burns (SJ); D Erik Karlsson (SJ); C Nathan MacKinnon (COL); W Colin Wilson (COL); D Tyson Barrie (COL); D Cale Makar (COL)
Favorite Goalies: Martin Jones (SJ); Philipp Grubauer (COL)
1) BOS1 – Marchand/Bergeron/Heinen (McAvoy or Chara optional)
2) COL1 – MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen/Barrie
3) CBJ1 – Dubois/Atkinson/Panarin
1) BOS2 – Krejci/DeBrusk/Kuhlman
2) SJ1 – Couture/Meier/Nyquist (Burns optional)
3) SJ2 – Hertl/Kane (Radil and/or Karlsson optional)
4) CBJ2 – Duchene/Foligno/Anderson (check pre-game rushes to confirm)
1) COL2 – Soderberg/Wilson/Kerfoot
2) COL3 – Compher/Nieto/Calvert
1) Nathan MacKinnon, COL (DK $7100 FD $9100)
2) Tomas Hertl, SJ (DK $5900 FD $7300)
3) Boone Jenner, CBJ (DK $4000 FD $4300)
4) Sean Kuraly, BOS (DK $3300 FD $3500)
1) Brad Marchand, BOS (DK $6400 FD $7700)
2) Cam Atkinson, CBJ (DK $5900 FD $6900)
3) Timo Meier, SJ (DK $5500 FD $6000)
4) David Pastrnak, BOS (DK $6300 FD $8300)
5) Colin Wilson, COL (DK $4000 FD $4000)
6) Jake DeBrusk, BOS (DK $5100 FD $5100)
7) Oliver Bjorkstrand, CBJ (DK $4100 FD $4800)
8) Marcus Sorensen, SJ (DK $2900 FD $3700)
1) Brent Burns, SJ (DK $6800 FD $7700)
2) Erik Karlsson, SJ (DK $5900 FD $7200)
3) Tyson Barrie, COL (DK $5700 FD $6700)
4) Torey Krug, BOS (DK $5300 FD $5500)
5) David Savard, CBJ (DK $3900 FD $3800)
6) Cale Makar, COL (DK $4200 FD $3500)
1) Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ (Cash or GPP – DK $7900 FD $8100)
2) Philipp Grubauer, COL (Cash or GPP – DK $8000 FD $7700)
3) Tuukka Rask, BOS (GPP only – DK $7400 FD $8600)
4) Martin Jones, SJ (GPP only – DK $7600 FD $8400)