Two more second-round series game two’s will play today. Thankfully, the team lineups aren’t as in-flux as they were yesterday. Here’s the overview, followed by my analysis and favorite DFS plays.
CAROLINA HURRICANES @ NEW YORK ISLANDERS (3:05pm Faceoff)
Game Two (Carolina leads 1-0)
Implied Odds: NY Islanders 57% | Total: 5.0
With the game in Brooklyn, this one is all about the top lines for me. CAR1 will see a lot of the Brock Nelson line, which is a big advantage for the Canes. With Aho/Niederreiter/Williams on the ice together in the 2019 playoffs, Carolina is controlling 67.6% of the Corsi share, and piling up shot attempts to the tune of 71 CF/60. NYI2, on the other hand, controls just 37.4% CF, and is allowing a ton of shots and chances – resulting in a current xGA/60 of 3.0.
The Barzal line has been spectacular this playoff season, and they’re going to get really nice matchups on home ice – seeing a lot of Carolina’s third-liners on Friday night. In 11:25 together in game one, the Isles put up 13 attempts, 10 chances and 4 high danger chances with their top line on the ice. Throughout the entire playoffs thus far, though, they’re producing chances at a rate of 49.7 SCF/60 and 24.2 HDCF/60 – leading to their current 4.0 xGF/60.
For a cheaper option, I’ll have some exposure to the Cizikas/Clutterbuck mini-stack. They consistently control possession, and can hit GPP value with just one goal. With the extra ice time they’re seeing in the playoffs, and the added potential for shorthanded points – the possibility is there for these guys to score multiple goals and really smash value. If that happens, and you have them paired up with an expensive line that hits – you win alllllll the monies…it’s definitely something to consider.
Favorite GPP Stacks: CAR1 – Aho/Niederreiter/Williams; NYI1 – Barzal/Eberle/Lee; NYI4 – Cizikas/Clutterbuck (Martin optional)
Favorite Cash Options: W Justin Williams (CAR); W Teuvo Teravainen (CAR); W Warren Foegele (CAR); D Justin Faulk (CAR); C Casey Cizikas (NYI); W Jordan Eberle (NYI); W Tom Kuhnhackl (NYI); D Adam Pelech (NYI)
Favorite Goalies: Petr Mrazek (CAR); Robin Lehner (NYI)
COLORADO AVALANCHE @ SAN JOSE SHARKS (7:35pm Faceoff)
Game Two (San Jose leads 1-0)
Implied Odds: San Jose 55% | Total: 6.0
San Jose rolled in game one, with a 5-2 victory. It was the Thornton/Sorenson/Labanc line that really shined for the Sharks on Friday – and I’ll definitely have some exposure to them once again.
San Jose’s top line hard-matched COL1 – which wound up being MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen by the second period – and they got outplayed badly. The Avs controlled about 66% of the Corsi share with their top line on the ice, and piled up 14 attempts, 9 shots, 11 chances and 5 high dangers in just 9 minutes of the three big guns together. They are – by far – my favorite stack on tonight’s slate. Tyson Barrie and Nikita Zadorov are the add-ons for this stack. Barrie is preferred, of course, due to his PP1 correlation with the trio, but if you don’t have the salary to pay up, Zadorov is a fixture with the line at even strength, too.
Hertl and Kane looked dominant, as well. Even with Lukas Radil playing the right wing, this line was much better than just about everyone they were on the ice against on Friday night. With Couture’s line basically shadowing COL1, I’d expect Hertl and Kane to have a pretty easy go of it again – assuming Colorado keeps their three studs together. Erik Karlsson will get a lot of time with that second line, and he’s the guy I would add-on there.
Favorite GPP Stacks: COL1 – MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen (Barrie or Zadorov optional); SJ2 – Hertl/Kane (Radil and/or Karlsson optional); SJ3 – Thornton/Sorensen/Labanc
Favorite Cash Options: C Nathan MacKinnon (COL); W Colin Wilson (COL); W Matt Nieto (COL); D Tyson Barrie (COL); D Cole Makar (COL); C Logan Couture (SJ); C Tomas Hertl (SJ); W Marcus Sorensen (SJ); D Brent Burns (SJ); D Erik Karlsson (SJ)
Favorite Goalies: Philipp Grubauer (COL); Martin Jones (SJ)
1) COL1 – MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen (Barrie or Zadorov optional)
1) NYI1 – Barzal/Eberle/Lee
2) SJ2 – Hertl/Kane (Radil and/or Karlsson optional)
3) CAR1 – Aho/Niederreiter/Williams
1) SJ3 – Thornton/Sorensen/Labanc
2) NYI4 – Cizikas/Clutterbuck (Martin optional)
1) Nathan MacKinnon, COL (DK $7300 FD $8900)
2) Logan Couture, SJ (DK $6300 FD $8000)
3) Tomas Hertl, SJ (DK $6200 FD $7300)
4) Casey Cizikas, NYI (DK $3800 FD $3400)
1) Teuvo Teravainen, CAR (DK $5400 FD $6100)
2) Colin Wilson, COL (DK $3700 FD $4300)
3) Jordan Eberle, NYI (DK $5200 FD $6400)
4) Justin Williams, CAR (DK $4400 FD $5300)
5) Tom Kuhnhackl, NYI (DK $2800 FD $3200)
6) Marcus Sorensen, SJ (DK $2800 FD $3800)
7) Matt Nieto, COL (DK $2900 FD $3600)
8) Warren Foegele, CAR (DK $3400 FD $3800)
1) Brent Burns, SJ (DK $6800 FD $7600)
2) Erik Karlsson, SJ (DK $6300 FD $7200)
3) Tyson Barrie, COL (DK $6100 FD $6600)
4) Justin Faulk, CAR (DK $4600 FD $5400)
5) Cole Makar, COL (DK $4000 FD $3700)
6) Adam Pelech, NYI (DK $3400 FD $3800)
1) Robin Lehner, NYI (Cash or GPP – DK $8200 FD $8700)
2) Martin Jones, SJ (Cash or GPP – DK $7800 FD $8500)
3) Petr Mrazek, CAR (GPP only – DK $7200 FD $8100)
4) Philipp Grubauer, COL (GPP only – DK $7300 FD $7600)