Onto round two. I ended up 4-4 in my first round predictions – getting Boston, Carolina, San Jose and St. Louis right. In these four series, I’ve got St. Louis, San Jose, Carolina and Boston…and they’re all off to a 1-0 lead! Here’s a breakdown of today’s two games, followed by some analysis of my favorite GPP stacks, cash-game plays and goalies.
NOTE:You’ll notice that I’ve listed very few options under my favorite stacks. To me, this slate is perfect for single entry or 3-max contests. I’m not going to force stacks that I don’t like into my favorites just to give you guys options. Obviously all the top lines are viable for GPP’s, but I genuinely only trust one tonight. We’ve been at this for almost seven months now, you guys can trust yourselves if you want to pull the trigger on a BOS1 or STL1 lineup. This is a two-game slate, so an argument can be made for almost anyone – you’ll find the stacks I like below, and you can judge for yourself whether or not you want to make some additions to YOUR personal list.
DALLAS STARS @ ST. LOUIS BLUES (3:05pm Faceoff)
Game Two (St. Louis leads 1-0)
Implied Odds: St. Louis 57% | Total: 5.0
In game one, the Blues had O’Reilly’s line hard-matching Seguin-Benn-Radulov. They kept DAL1 off the scoreboard, but STL1 was outplayed pretty handily. Dallas controlled 63.2% of the Corsi share with their big guns on the ice, and I will have some exposure to them tonight – hopefully their ownership comes down a bit after a quiet game one. John Klingberg would be a must-add piece for me on this stack. Not only does he fully correlate with Seguin/Benn/Radulov (both at 5v5 and on PP1), but St. Louis ranks 12 out of 16 playoff teams on the PK – killing just 75% of their opposition’s chances.
For St. Louis, this is pretty easy. With Benn on the top line, the Stars are left extremely vulnerable throughout the rest of their lineup – I love the Brayden Schenn line again tonight. They were dominant in the series clincher against Winnipeg, and once again in game one against Dallas. I’ll likely have more STL2 ownership than anyone else on the slate.
Favorite GPP Stacks: DAL1 – Seguin/Radulov/Benn/Klingberg;STL2 – Schenn/Schwartz/Sundqvist
Favorite Cash Options: C Tyler Seguin (DAL); W Alexander Radulov (DAL); W Mats Zuccarello (DAL); D Miro Heiskanen (DAL); C Tyler Bozak (STL); W Vladimir Tarasenko (STL); W Oskar Sundqvist (STL); D Alex Pietrangelo (STL); D Colton Parayko (STL)
Favorite Goalies: Ben Bishop (DAL); Jordan Binnington (STL)
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS @ BOSTON BRUINS (8:05pm Faceoff)
Game Two (Boston leads 1-0)
Implied Odds: Boston 56%% | Total: 5.5
David Krejci is a game-time decision tonight, putting everything with this Bruins lineup into flux. Compounding that problem, is Columbus head coach John Tortorella’s refusal to provide lineup updates for his team. After a game one loss, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Blue Jackets lineup blendered in pre-game warmups tonight. So…it’ll be tough to really evaluate this game from a DFS standpoint. As it stands now, it appears that David Pastrnak will rejoin the top line with Bergeron and Marchand. As was the case with the Lightning, I am going to fade the Bruins top line for the most part this series. The Columbus top-six forwards slow things way down, and the Jackets have the leagues #1 ranked penalty kill, so I have a hard time seeing BOS1 hitting value for $20k on DK and nearly $25k on FD. I think you can stack up a lower-priced line, spend up at D, and get much more value per dollar that way – while also avoiding the chalk.
Other than that, I like Boston’s depth. In morning skate, they kept the third line of Coyle/Johansson/Wagner together, and I like them as a cheaper option. They dominated the Columbus depth on Thursday night, scoring both the game-tying – and game-winning goals. If that doesn’t do wonders for a player’s momentum, nothing will.
Now, as far as Columbus goes, this will depend on Krejci’s availability. If he plays, I lose a lot of interest in the Blue Jackets. If he misses, though, that leaves Boston incredibly thin. Kuhlman or Backes would draw in, and I’m not even sure who would play center on that second line. In that case, I would like to have some CBJ2/CBJ3 exposure. They’d likely split time against that line, and without Krejci, I think either Columbus line would have big advantage there.
Favorite GPP Stacks: CBJ2 – Duchene/Atkinson/Dzingel (only if Krejci is out; check pre-game lines to confirm); CBJ3 – Anderson/Foligno/Texier (only if Krejci is out; check pre-game lines to confirm); BOS3 – Coyle/Johansson/Wagner
Favorite Cash Options: C Boone Jenner (CBJ); W Oliver Bjorkstrand (CBJ); W Cam Atkinson (CBJ); D Zach Werenski (CBJ); D David Savard (CBJ); C Sean Kuraly (BOS); W Brad Marchand (BOS); W David Pastrnak (BOS); D Torey Krug (BOS)
Favorite Goalies: Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ); Tuukka Rask (BOS)
1) DAL1 – Seguin/Benn/Radulov/Klingberg
1) STL2 – Schenn/Schwartz/Sundqvist
2) CBJ2 – Duchene/Atkinson/Dzingel (only if Krejci is out; check pre-game lines to confirm)
1) BOS3 – Coyle/Johansson/Wagner
2) CBJ3 – Anderson/Foligno/Texier (only if Krejci is out; check pre-game lines to confirm)
1) Tyler Seguin, DAL (DK $6900 FD $8300)
2) Sean Kuraly, BOS (DK $3300 FD $3500)
3) Boone Jenner, CBJ (DK $3900 FD $4000)
4) Tyler Bozak, STL (DK $3800 FD $4400)
1) Brad Marchand, BOS (DK $6800 FD $8400)
2) Alexander Radulov, DAL (DK $6600 FD $7600)
3) David Pastrnak, BOS (DK $6900 FD $8100)
4) Vladimir Tarasenko, STL (DK $6500 FD $8000)
5) Cam Atkinson, CBJ (DK $6200 FD $7000)
6) Oliver Bjorkstrand, CBJ (DK $4100 FD $5300)
7) Mats Zuccarello, DAL (DK $5100 FD $6200)
8) Oskar Sundqvist, STL (DK $3400 FD $4100)
1) Alex Pietrangelo, STL (DK $6000 FD $6500)
2) Miro Heiskanen, DAL (DK $4300 FD $4300)
3) David Savard, CBJ (DK $4200 FD $3900)
4) Colton Parayko, STL (DK $4700 FD $4800)
5) Zach Werenski, CBJ (DK $4900 FD $5600)
6) Torey Krug, BOS (DK $5700 FD $5700)
1) Jordan Binnington, STL (Cash or GPP – DK $7800 FD $8400)
2) Tuukka Rask, BOS (Cash or GPP – DK $8100 FD $8700)
3) Ben Bishop, DAL (GPP only – DK $7500 FD $8000)
4) Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ (GPP only – DK $7300 FD $7700)