Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
As always, you’ll find at least one of us in chat in the hour leading up to lock. Please join us there for any late scratches, goalie changes, or other DFS news.
We also have an NHL dedicated Twitter account where you’ll find important news and updates, as well as curated beat writer lists broken down by team.
Also new this season, my personal NHL projections and models are available for download under the projections section of the NHL tab. Of course, you can still access all player projections in our Fantasy Cruncher powered optimizer.
Slate Breakdown Podcast
I’ll be doing podcasts to go along with my write-ups this season. I can cover a whole lot more this way…
A Refresher On My GPP Process
Full disclosure…I am a DraftKings and SuperDraft player. I do not play at all on FanDuel. I will include FD pricing and will do my best to give you guys the best advice that I can for FanDuel lineups, but I don’t play there myself; please keep that in mind when reading my content or asking questions in chat.
On DraftKings, scoring remains the same for 2021. That means “bonus chasing”. Players receive a 3-point bonus for finishing with 5+ shots on goal, 3+ blocked shots, or 3+ points (goals+assists). While correlation is nice when a line scores 3 or 4 goals in a night, jamming in as many of those far more predictable shot/block bonuses offsets the need for correlation on DK, in my opinion…especially for players entering multiple lineups.
I generally enter at least 150 lineups per night on DK. There is so much variance in this game, and the more lineups you use, the less you are going to be affected by it overall. I want to cram as many shots on goal into my lineups as possible, hoping to find those few diamonds in the rough each night that can hit the peripheral bonuses as well as light up the scoreboard.
My process is extremely volatile. I don’t mind hitting the lock button on one or two players that will almost certainly come close to value with peripherals alone. I also have no problem having zero ownership on some of the guys that don’t shoot as much, but often wind up with multiple goals/assists.
The good nights are going to be very good, and the bad nights will be very bad for me. Many nights, I’m either cashing all 150 lineups or going 0-for. I believe in my process though, and if you can handle the ups and downs, I definitely suggest you use the same process on DK.
In the weeks ahead I’ll be detailing more on exactly how I do what I do, and how to implement the strategy yourself using our optimizer. For now, here are my favorite GPP stacks for tonight’s slate.
Let’s Talk Chalk
Highest Owned Stack: EDM PP1 – McDavid/Draisaitl/Nugent-Hopkins (25-30%)
Best Leverage Play: Literally any other stack other than EDM/COL1 (less than 15%)
Highest Owned Defensemen: Dougie Hamilton (20-25%)
Best Leverage Play: Jaccob Slavin (0-5%)
Highest Owned Goalie: James Reimer (CAR) 10-15%
Best Leverage Play: CHI1 – Kane/Janmark/Kurashev (5-10%)
Top GPP Stacks
***A note about Edmonton: I think fading Edmonton and hoping for an average game out of them is the easiest path to cashing today. I am expecting nearly 30% ownership on these guys, despite their insane pricing; even if you roster them and they hit, you are probably min. cashing at best unless you get lucky. If you fade them, you knock 30% of the field out and have massive leverage. This is an easy fade if you are single entering. If you are multi-entering, you have a decision. You can either fade them completely, or you can go over the field and put them into at least a third of your lineups. Anything in between that is going to be extremely -EV.
COL: Mikko Rantanen/J.T. Compher/Gabriel Landeskog
I’d expect about 15-20% ownership here…especially on the $2,800 Compher. That being said, they are still a better gamble than Edmonton, in my opinion. I have just one team projected for more shots on goal than the Avs, and only the Oilers projected to score more. MacKinnon is out tonight, which clears the way to Compher to play 20+ minutes. He should be a lock in all DraftKings lineups and formats. Cale Makar is the preferred stacking option on defense, skating with all three on the top power play.
WPG: Nikolaj Ehlers/Mark Scheifele/Andrew Copp
There is plenty of value available on the slate tonight, and Winnipeg’s new-look first line with Ehlers and Copp is a good place to begin. Copp is up to 9 points (4G 5A) in his last seven games, and now he gets to play with the team’s top playmaker in Scheifele. Ehlers is a good shot generator who pairs well with the Scheifele setups and Copp grit. Josh Morrissey plays on the top power play for Winnipeg, but offers little upside most night. I think looking elsewhere at defense would be best.
LA: Alex Iafallo/Anze Kopitar/Adrian Kempe
Kopitar continues to produce at a pace we have not seen from him in years. He’s now up to a goal and 11 assists in just eight games in 2021. He’s produced multiple-point games in five of those. Kempe is still very cheap, bring the total cost of this trio down to just over $10k. The Ducks have lost three straight, allowing 13 goals against in the process…this team is ripe for the picking right about now. Drew Doughty is always the correlation option for Kopitar stacks, skating with the Kings captain in all three phases of the game.
CHI: Patrick Kane/Phillip Kurashev/Mattias Janmark
Alex DeBrincat looks likely to draw back into the Chicago lineup tonight, meaning we may see some line changes in pregame warmups. If these three stick together, or even Kane/Kurashev skate with another winger; I’m really liking the way these guys looked together on Sunday. In ~11 minutes with their top line on the ice together, the Blackhawks managed to generate 10 shots on goal, 7 scoring chances (3 of the high danger variety), and 2 goals. Monster numbers for Kane and co., who will cost you just $15k for the full stack tonight. No need to force a defenseman here.
MON: Brendan Gallagher/Phillip Danault/Tomas Tatar
If you aren’t playing the full line, I would highly recommend getting Brendan Gallagher into your lineups. Similar to Brady Tkachuk, Gallagher continues to dominate possession, ranking near the top of the league in almost every metric for shots and chances. On DraftKings, you’re almost guaranteed to get close to that 5 SOG bonus, and Gallagher has scored 4 goals in his last six games…monster upside here. Shea Weber would be my preferred defenseman to stack with Gallagher in lineups, although Jeff Petry has also been skating on the top power play, too.
CGY: Matthew Tkachuk/Elias Lindholm/Dillon Dube
Dube is back on the top line, and although he hasn’t gotten off to much of a start (just 2 points in four and a half games), he has a lot of talent, and costs just $3,100/$3,700 tonight. Elias Lindholm has looked great to open up the 2021 season, piling up 2 goals and 8 assists in eight games. He’s recorded a low of 8 DK points this season, reaching double digit fantasy points in six of eight games. Rasmus Andersson still mans the point on Calgary’s top power play, which also features Tkachuk, Lindholm, Gaudreau, and Monahan.
DAL: Jamie Benn/Roope Hintz/Alexander Radulov
Jamie Benn returned to the Dallas lineup on Sunday, recording a goal, assist, and 4 shots on goal in the Stars 4-3 win over Carolina. Benn and his line mates were projected for huge numbers in my preseason model, but Benn was forced out of the lineup midway through the team’s first game, which put a damper on things. Now the he’s back, and relatively inexpensive on DraftKings, I’m hopping aboard and hoping those early season projections turn out to be right. I don’t think we need to force a defenseman onto this stack.
VAN: Jake Virtanen/Bo Horvat/J.T. Miller
We saw the Canucks shake up their lines after getting paddled by Montreal last night. If the changes stick to begin tonight’s game, I’m favoring the trio of Virtanen/Horvat/Miller, who cost significantly less than Pettersson/Boeser/Hoglander, thanks to Virtanen’s stone cold minimum price. Horvat has been ice cold, and costs an arm and a leg on DK tonight, but you can thank his inflated salary when you see he’s about 0.8% owned tonight. I have MON/VAN projected for the highest pace on the night, and all three of these guys enjoy shooting the puck.
One-Offs and Defensemen
Anaheim: Troy Terry
Arizona: Jordan Gross
Calgary: Andrew Mangiapane, Mark Giordano
Carolina: Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Dougie Hamilton (FD)
Colorado: Nazem Kadri, Brandon Saad, Ryan Graves
Columbus: Patrik Laine, Cam Atkinson, Zach Werenski, David Savard (DK)
Edmonton: Jesse Puljujarvi, Dominik Kahun, Tyson Barrie
Los Angeles: Austin Wagner, Jeff Carter, Mikey Anderson
Minnesota: Zach Parise, Luke Johnson, Kirill Kaprisov, Victor Rask, Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Brad Hunt, Ian Cole
Montreal: Corey Perry, Shea Weber
Ottawa: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris (FD), Evgeny Dadonov, Mike Reilly, Erik Gudbranson
St. Louis: Zach Sanford, Jaden Schwartz, Mike Hoffman (DK)
Vancouver: Nils Hoglander, Alexander Edler
Winnipeg: Neal Pionk
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- Jake Oettinger, DAL
- David Rittich, CGY (not yet confirmed)
- Mikko Koskinen, EDM
- John Gibson, ANH