Yet another slate goes by with the winning lineup on DraftKings lacking a full line stack. The $10,000 winner in the $10-entry “Twine” last night featured a Dubois/Atkinson mini-stack that combined for just 2 points (1G 1A) and 8 peripherals (SOG/BS), three one-off forwards (Skinner/Texier/Jenner) that combined for 10 SOG and just 3 points (2G 1A), three defensemen (Dahlin/Pietrangelo/Jones) that combined for just 3 points and 16 peripherals, and a goalie that donked an assist. Do you see a trend?
We’re up to six slates – still a small sample – but we have yet to see a full line stack in the winning lineup in DK’s big mid-stakes GPP ($8-20 entry).
In October 2018, 22 of 27 GPP-winning lineups contained at least one full stack. 3 more had a correlated 3-man PP stack.
What we’re seeing is unprecedented, and will take some time to completely figure out, but for the time being, I’m switching up my strategy a bit, because well…adapt or die.
I’ll be putting together 1-man, 2-man, 3-man, and even some 4-man “blocks” of correlated players that generate a high number of peripheral points on a nightly basis. You can think of it as almost a hybrid cash/GPP approach.
It will take more time and thought to put the puzzle together and fit the pieces we want into lineups, but I do believe there is a big edge in NHL DFS on DK right now – I’m not sure how long it will take for everyone to figure it out, but for the time being, we need to take advantage.
FanDuel folks, you can still play the full stacks, as peripherals aren’t as valuable on that site without the large bonuses. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with playing the mini-stacks, but full correlation is still key over there.
As always, I will do my best to keep the article updated to reflect any late scratches, line changes or surprise goalie confirmations. Please follow me on Twitter @RyanClifford as I will always post any updates that affect my article there, as well.
Here’s a breakdown of tonight’s matchups, followed by my stacking recommendations for tonight’s GPP contests. Good luck tonight!
Here is a breakdown of tonight’s matchups:
NSH: Craig Smith-Ryan Johansen-Viktor Arvidsson-Roman Josi
Nashville is on home ice to host the San Jose Sharks. I like this matchup a lot for the Preds but feel you can play the full top line stack here. All four of these players are big shooters, and the Preds are currently leading the league in shot attempts at 5v5. Nashville’s implied total of 3.3 is third-highest on the slate and the Sharks are currently allowing an average of 3.5 goals against per 60 minutes at even strength. Josi fully correlates with NSH1, both at evens and on the top power play with Johansen and Arvidsson. Ryan Ellis also fits this stack – you can even go “double-D” with Josi and Ellis.
VGK: Jonathan Marchessault-William Karlsson-Reilly Smith-Shea Thedore
Vegas is also on home ice hosting Boston tonight. There’s been no signs of hard-matching from the Golden Knights thus far, so this line should avoid BOS1 for much of the game. These three work so well together and do a great job of generating high-danger chances – which Boston is giving up 11.2 of per 60 minutes at 5v5.
BOS: Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak-Torey Krug
The Bruins top line has a tough matchup tonight, but I believe they’ll go underowned playing in the late game, and they always have slate-breaking upside. The Bruins have generated over 30 chances and scored 4 goals in the last 60-ish minutes that their top line has been on the ice together at 5v5.
SJ: Timo Meier-Logan Couture-Kevin Labanc-Brent Bruns
San Jose has a really tough matchup in Nashville tonight. This is one of the hardest buildings to play in, and the Preds are playing really good hockey right now. Still, all four of these players shoot the puck, and can pile up fantasy points in a hurry. This should be a pretty fast-paced game, which is just how Brent Burns likes it. You can also use Erik Karlsson in place of Burns – but I prefer the upside of #88.
NSH: Filip Forsberg-Matt Duchene-Roman Josi
Again – really liking the Preds tonight. Not only do all three of these guys shoot the puck at a high-volume, but they all correlate on the top power play as well – which is cashing in at a 25% rate thus far. Their fancy numbers look great, as the Preds are generating loads of attempts, shots, chances, and goals with the Duchene line on the ice.
CGY: Sean Monahan-Elias Lindholm-Travis Hamonic
I know it sounds crazy to leave Johnny Hockey off of the CGY1 stack – and FanDuel users: you can include him here. Hear me out. In his last 16 games, Gaudreau has registered more than 3 SOG just twice – only hitting the 5-shot bonus on DK once. He’s only scored 3 goals in that stretch as well – though he has opened the season with back-to-back goals. You can go ahead and add him into the stack if you’d like, but I’m going to move forward using the shooters – Lindholm has had over 3 SOG in two of his last three, while Monahan has hit the 5+ SOG bonus points in each of his last two games.
NSH: Kyle Turris-Rocco Grimaldi-Ryan Ellis
Here’s my first value block that I like. Since getting the call-up for last season’s playoff series with Dallas, Grimaldi has posted 3+ SOG in five of seven games – scoring three goals in those seven. The Preds have piled up 32 attempts and 18 shots on goal in just over 20 minutes with Turris and Grimaldi on the ice together thus far. You’re going to get almost zero ownership here, and the cheap salaries of the forwards lets you fit in almost anyone else you want.
FLA: Vincent Trocheck-Mike Hoffman-Mike Matheson
While everyone and they mama is jumping on Barkov’s line with this ridiculous pricing, it’s actually the Trocheck line that I prefer. Not only do Trocheck and Hoffman shoot the puck a ton, but they’ve been putting it in the net, too. Hoffman has four goals and Trocheck one in just two games. They’re actually skating with the Ekblad/Matheson pairing – but it’s Matheson that I prefer as the higher-volume shooter of the two.
DET: Dylan Larkin-Anthony Mantha-Danny DeKeyser
Both of these last two stacks may seem like point-chasing, but they’re not – I’m shot-chasing. Larkin and Mantha have 19 combined SOG through two games. Going back to last season, Mantha has 11 goals and 4 assists in his last SIX games – those are Kucherov-like numbers. There will be some ownership on these two, but I like stacking them up with a contrarian Danny DeKeyser to offset some of that. DeKeyser skates most of his ice time with the Red Wings top line, and has hit the blocked shot bonus in each of his first two games.
PIT: Jake Guentzel-Kris Letang
Again, this may seem crazy to leave off Crosby from this stack, but he’s averaging only 2 shots on goal per game in his last ten, with 2 goals and 8 assists. We’re seeing early on that the players that are held pointless but hitting the peripheral bonuses are outscoring the players finishing with an assist and a SOG or two. This Pittsburgh line will be the chalk tonight, and I like narrowing it down to just Guentzel and Letang – the two high-volume shooters – to keep things slightly more contrarian. FanDuel users – go ahead and stack Crosby in here, and even Simon is probably a good idea.
CAR: Sebastian Aho-Jaccob Slavin
Despite being at the top of the league in SOG again, Aho is the only one shooting on this top line. The Hurricanes get so much production from their defensemen, that I think stacking up Aho with either Slavin or Hamilton makes a lot of sense. You give yourself a good opportunity to pick up peripheral bonuses, and get the players most likely to score the goals. Hamilton is $6,700 on DK tonight, so Slavin gets the nod from me. FanDuel folks – go ahead and stack Aho up with Teravainen and Niederreiter. The Hurricanes have a big special teams advantage in this one, and the Panthers have started the season using their fourth-liners in shut-down duties.
PIT: Jared McCann-Brandon Tanev
McCann is going to take over for Evgeni Malkin on the second line. In games where he got over 18 minutes of ice time last season, McCann finished with 3+ SOG in all but one game – he’s also averaging 3 SOG/game over his last eight. Tanev is averaging 4 peripherals per game over his last six and seems to be relishing his new role in the top six. For just $3,500 on DK, he could provide nice value with just a point in addition to his peripheral floor, and provides leverage against the PIT1 chalk.
PIT: Patric Hornqvist-Justin Schultz
Another Penguins mini-stack I like tonight is Hornqvist and Schultz. These two skate together quite a bit at 5v5, and there’s an outside chance that we see them on the same PP unit tonight after the Penguins reshuffle following some key injuries. You’ve got really nice peripheral floors with both of these two, and I don’t see either player having much ownership tonight, despite the projected Pens onslaught.
NYI: Brock Nelson-Adam Pelech
Nelson’s line has been piling up the scoring chances early on in the season – and scoring too. Unfortunately, Brock is the only one that consistently shoots the puck on this line. Adam Pelech is often overlooked for the likes of Leddy, Pulock, and Boychuk – but he correlates well with Nelson and has a decent peripheral floor of his own.
These are the players to fill in the rest of your lineup with after inserting a mini-stack or two. All these players have solid peripheral floors, and many are in great spots tonight.
EDM: Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse
NYI: Barzal, Mayfield
WPG: Laine, Ehlers, Niku
WSH: Ovechkin, Oshie, Kuznetsov, Carlson
ANH: Kase, Henrique, Guhle
SJ: Karlsson, Vlasic
NSH: Watson, Ekholm
LA: Doughty, Roy
CGY: Hanifin, Giordano
VGK: Pacioretty, Stone, Merrill
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- David Rittich (CGY)
- Matt Murray (PIT)
- Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA)
- John Gibson (ANH)