Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
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Also new this season, my personal NHL projections and models are available for download under the projections section of the NHL tab. Of course, you can still access all player projections in our Fantasy Cruncher powered optimizer.
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Slate Breakdown Podcast
I’ll be doing podcasts to go along with my write-ups this season. I can cover a whole lot more this way…
Podcast will be off today, back tomorrow…
Slate Preview: Game/Team Projections
Let’s Talk Chalk
Highest Owned Stack: PIT1 – Rust/Crosby/Guentzel (20-25%)
Best Leverage Play: PIT2 – Rodrigues/Malkin/Kapanen (4-8%) or Jonas Johansson (BUF) in goal (1-3%)
Highest Owned Defenseman: Dougie Hamilton, CAR (25-30%)
Best Leverage Play: Jaccob Slavin, CAR (1-3%)
Highest Owned Goalie: James Reimer, CAR/Andrei Vasilevskiy, TB (15-20%)
Best Leverage Play: NSH1 – Forsberg/Johansen/Arvidsson (8-12%)/DET1 – Mantha/Larkin/Fabbri (1-3%)
Top GPP Stacks
BOS: David Pastrnak/Patrice Bergeron/Brad Marchand (Proj Own: 10-15%)
The New York Rangers have controlled just 47.4% of the attempt share at 5v5 this season, which grades out as third-worst league wide. The Bruins are controlling over 65% of the attempt share with their top line on home ice, and even more impressively, they are scoring at a rate of 7.2 goals per 60 minutes at even strength. On the power play, only the Washington Capitals have had more success on home ice. The Bruins have averaged one power play goal per game at TD Garden, converting a stupid 37.5% of their chances. We haven’t as many of the big slate-breaking games from this trio as we’re used to, but I’m going to take my chances on a night where the Penguins will command a lot of the high dollar ownership.
FLA: Mason Marchment/Aleksander Barkov/Carter Verhaeghe (Proj Own: 5-10%)
Mason Marchment didn’t get onto the scoreboard on Tuesday night, but if his 4 shots on goal were any indication, it’s not going to be much longer before he puts some pucks into the net. Still just $3,100, he grades out as a top-two value on the slate, behind only Jason Robertson. Alex Barkov had hit double digit fantasy points in 10 of 12 games before finishing with just 2 shots on goal on Tuesday. Expect him to get back on track here. Once again, I have the Panthers projected for a slate-high 3.9 goals.
TOR: Mitchell Marner/Auston Matthews/Joe Thornton (Proj Own: 15-25%)
I made the mistake of fading Auston Matthews on home ice Tuesday night…it didn’t end well for me. I won’t make the same mistake twice. Winnipeg is allowing nearly 32 shots on goal per game this season, which is fourth-most in hockey. If you’re playing on DraftKings, I think it’s probably more likely that Matthews winds up with the 3-point SOG bonus than not. He’ll be one of my favorite one-offs on that site, but I also am fully on board with the full TOR1 stack with Marner and Thornton. The Jets have had many struggles on the PK this year, too, so if you really think the Leafs smash tonight, piling up the top power play unit with Nylander and Rielly may be viable tonight.
DAL: Jamie Benn/Joe Pavelski/Denis Gurianov (Proj Own: 5-10%)
This is a nice chance to get a super talented line into your GPP lineup at very low ownership. After Robertson went ham on the Blackhawks last time out, those that are rostering Stars tonight are going to think twice about which one of these stacks they want to roll with. That’s generally not the case with this team, and 90% of the ownership will generally fall to these guys. I don’t think that happens tonight, I think the second-liners take away a chunk of this trio’s ownership, so now might be the time to hammer DAL1. Miro Heiskanen seems to be playing the top power play unit for Dallas right now, so he’d be my preferred stacking option on defense.
DAL: Jason Robertson/Roope Hintz/Joel Kiviranta (Proj Own: 4-8%)
Another option that I won’t rule out tonight is the full PP1 stack with Hintz and Robertson. Chicago has the NHL’s fourth-worst PK, so if we get another 6-1 type of thrashing, having 4-6 of these guys in your lineup would be a great lineup base: Benn, Pavelski, Gurianov, Hintz, Robertson, Heiskanen. Robertson grades out as the slate’s top point-per-dollar value. He’s running hot with 2 goals and 5 assists in his last four games. The rookie now has 13 points (4G 9A) in 16 games. I don’t think Kiviranta is 100% necessary here, but he is another cheap option, also coming off of a multi-point game in Tuesday night’s big win.
CAR: Nino Niederreiter/Sebastian Aho/Martin Necas (Proj Own: 5-10%)
With Vincent Trocheck out of the lineup, Aho will get to center Niederreiter and Necas. Aho and Niederreiter should have a ton of chemistry from playing nearly 900 minutes together at 5v5 over the past couple of seasons. Last time I wrote I talked about Aho and how he seems to bring the highest form out of anyone he’s playing with. He skated with Foegele and McGinn on Tuesday and still wound up with a goal and assist…his third multi-point outing in four games. I’m excited to see him with these two, who have worked great together with Trocheck between them. I don’t expect Carolina to struggle much here against the Preds. Dougie Hamilton would make a nice add-on at defense, correlating with Aho and likely Niederreiter on the team’s PP1 tonight.
One-Offs and Defensemen
Buffalo: Rasmus Ristolainen
Calgary: Dillon Dube, Brett Ritchie, Rasmus Andersson
Carolina: Jordan Staal, Jaccob Slavin, Dougie Hamilton, Jake Bean
Chicago: Carl Soderberg
Columbus: Nick Foligno
Florida: Mackenzie Weegar
Montreal: Josh Anderson, Joel Edmundson
Nashville: Calle Jarnkrok, Jeremy Davies
New Jersey: Pavel Zacha, Ty Smith
NY Islanders: Jordan Eberle, Oliver Wahlstrom, Ryan Pulock, Noah Dobson
NY Rangers: Adam Fox (FD)
Philadelphia: Joel Farabee
Tampa Bay: Ondrej Palat
Washington: Daniel Sprong
Goalies
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- Jonas Johansson, BUF
- Sergei Bobrovsky, FLA
- James Reimer, CAR
- Brian Elliott, PHI
- Kevin Lankinen, CHI
