Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
As always, you’ll find at least one of us in chat in the hour leading up to lock. Please join us there for any late scratches, goalie changes, or other DFS news.
We also have an NHL dedicated Twitter account where you’ll find important news and updates, as well as curated beat writer lists broken down by team.
Also new this season, my personal NHL projections and models are available for download under the projections section of the NHL tab. Of course, you can still access all player projections in our Fantasy Cruncher powered optimizer.
Slate Breakdown Podcast
I’ll be doing podcasts to go along with my write-ups this season. I can cover a whole lot more this way…
A Refresher On My GPP Process
Full disclosure…I am a DraftKings and SuperDraft player. I do not play at all on FanDuel. I will include FD pricing and will do my best to give you guys the best advice that I can for FanDuel lineups, but I don’t play there myself; please keep that in mind when reading my content or asking questions in chat.
On DraftKings, scoring remains the same for 2021. That means “bonus chasing”. Players receive a 3-point bonus for finishing with 5+ shots on goal, 3+ blocked shots, or 3+ points (goals+assists). While correlation is nice when a line scores 3 or 4 goals in a night, jamming in as many of those far more predictable shot/block bonuses offsets the need for correlation on DK, in my opinion…especially for players entering multiple lineups.
I generally enter at least 150 lineups per night on DK. There is so much variance in this game, and the more lineups you use, the less you are going to be affected by it overall. I want to cram as many shots on goal into my lineups as possible, hoping to find those few diamonds in the rough each night that can hit the peripheral bonuses as well as light up the scoreboard.
My process is extremely volatile. I don’t mind hitting the lock button on one or two players that will almost certainly come close to value with peripherals alone. I also have no problem having zero ownership on some of the guys that don’t shoot as much, but often wind up with multiple goals/assists.
The good nights are going to be very good, and the bad nights will be very bad for me. Many nights, I’m either cashing all 150 lineups or going 0-for. I believe in my process though, and if you can handle the ups and downs, I definitely suggest you use the same process on DK.
In the weeks ahead I’ll be detailing more on exactly how I do what I do, and how to implement the strategy yourself using our optimizer. For now, here are my favorite GPP stacks for tonight’s slate.
Let’s Talk Chalk
Highest Owned Stack: NYR1 – Zibanejad/Kreider/Buchnevich (20-25%)
Best Leverage Play: NYR2 – Panarin/Strome/Kakko (8-12%) or Vitek Vanecek (WAS) in goal (2-3%)
Highest Owned Defensemen: Roman Josi, NSH (20-25%)
Best Leverage Play: Ryan Ellis, NSH (6-8%)
Highest Owned Goalie: Carey Price, MON (15-20%)
Best Leverage Play: OTT1 – Tkachuk/Norris/Dadonov (2-5%) or Matt Murray (OTT) in goal (1-2%)
Top GPP Stacks
NYR: Chris Kreider/Mika Zibanejad/Pavel Buchnevich
We’ll start with tonight’s chalk. We can thank DK’s pricing algorithm for the ownership tonight. Chris Kreider, who had been skating on the team’s third line, can be had for just $4,200. The entire stack will run you just over $16k tonight on DraftKings. Their 53 projected fantasy points is tops on the slate per my model, so I would’ve gladly paid $2,500 more for this stack tonight. Still, if you’re a single entry player, you’ll want to look elsewhere. Thankfully there are plenty of options.
WAS: Alex Ovechkin/Nicklas Backstrom/Tom Wilson
This is one way you can leverage the Rangers ownership tonight. The Caps enter tonight’s matchup in MSG winners of four of their last six, while averaging nearly four goals per game. The Rangers, on the other hand, have won just two of seven. Ovechkin is showing no ill effects from his layoff on the COVID list, with a goal, assist, and 8 shots on goal in his first two games back. While I don’t think Tom Wilson is necessary for your WSH1 lineups, I would try to make room for defenseman John Carlson, who fully correlates with Backstrom and Ovechkin.
TOR: Mitchell Marner/Auston Matthews/Zach Hyman
For those of you on DraftKings, this line tops the list tonight with a projected 11.4 total shots on goals; also leading the way with 13.4 projected scoring chances. The Rangers and Canadiens will take up a lot of the ownership tonight, which could leave Matthews a lot lower owned than we normally see when he’s playing at home. The Canucks enter tonight having lost back-to-back games to Montreal, two games in which they allowed a combined 11 goals against. Morgan Rielly is the preferred stacking option on defense.
WPG: Nikolaj Ehlers/Mark Scheifele/Andrew Copp
We took a swing and missed with these three on Tuesday night. That’s not going to stop me from going right back in the third-straight meeting between Winnipeg and Calgary. Scheifele has at least a point in seven of his last eight games, combining for 3 goals and 9 assists. Copp has 4 goals and 6 assists in his last eight. And of course Ehlers had the lone goal for this stack on Tuesday night. Only the Caps top line will cost you more on DK tonight, so this may be a better play for those of you on FD, but either way I think we’re looking at some very low ownership for three guys with big upside.
CHI: Patrick Kane/Philipp Kurashev/Mattias Janmark
I’ll preface this by mentioning that this trio got smoked at 5v5 against Carolina on Tuesday night. Absolutely outplayed in every way. I am expecting there to be some shifting of the Blackhawks forward lines when they hit the ice for pregame warmups tonight. Kane and Kurashev, despite Chicago managing just about 25% of the Corsi share when they were on the ice, still managed to each score. It was the second straight game with a goal for Kurashev, who should continue to get good chances alongside of Kane. I’m hoping for a better wingman than Janmark tonight, but we shall see. Either way, Kane and Kurashev will find their way into some of my lineups tonight.
CGY: Matthew Tkachuk/Elias Lindholm/Dillon Dube
Lindholm now has points in eight of nine games this season, totaling 2 goals and 9 assists. Matthew Tkachuk had a pair of goals on Tuesday night, his third straight game with at least a point. Dillon Dube, the talented 22-year-old who was a former second round pick of Calgary’s, is back on the top line, and wound up with about 20 minutes of ice time two nights ago. All three of these guys get power play time, and tonight’s officials both ranked inside of the top ten in penalties called during the 2019-20 season.
NSH: Filip Forsberg/Matt Duchene/Mikael Granlund
Preds have shifted their lines a bit this week, with Filip Forsberg now skating alongside of Matt Duchene and Mikael Granlund. This easily becomes my favorite Nashville stack. Granlund had been skating with Duchene and Nick Cousins, and is still averaging a point per game over his last five (3G 2A). Now he gets Forsberg as his new tag team partner, and they were a force in their first game together against Tampa Bay on Monday. In just over 11 minutes together at 5v5 in that game, the Preds generated 16 shot attempts, 8 shots, 6 chances (4 of them high danger), and a goal. All are extremely impressive numbers against a very good Lightning team. Nashville faces the Florida Panthers tonight.
CAR: Nino Niederreiter/Vincent Trocheck/Martin Necas
Trocheck has found his groove, with 5 goals and 2 assists in his last six games. He’s also been averaging about 4 shots on goal per game thus far, giving him big upside on DK, even with a $5,900 price tag. With Niederreiter and Necas on his wings, the Hurricanes are controlling over 65% of the Corsi share at even strength. They’re also generating huge shot and chance numbers, too. Chicago has been a mess defensively, with their only wins this season coming against the Detroit Red Wings (2x) and Columbus Blue Jackets. They’ve lost their other 7 by a combined score of 29-15, allowing over 4 goals per game in their losses.
One-Offs and Defensemen
Arizona: Nick Schmaltz, Tyler Pitlick, Jakob Chychrun (FD)
Calgary: Mark Giordano
Carolina: Haydn Fleury
Columbus: Patrik Laine, Max Domi, Seth Jones
Dallas: Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski
Florida: Carter Verhaeghe, Anthony Duclair, Patric Hornqvist
Montreal: Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson, Jeff Petry (FD)
Nashville: Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis
NY Rangers: Adam Fox
Ottawa: Brady Tkachuk, Evgeny Dadonov, Colin White
St. Louis : Jordan Kyrou, Mike Hoffman (DK), Justin Faulk, Vince Dunn, Colton Parayko
Toronto: William Nylander, Wayne Simmonds, Jake Muzzin
Winnipeg: Nathan Beaulieu, Neal Pionk (DK)
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- Carey Price, MON
- Anton Khudobin, DAL
- Kevin Lankinen, CHI
- Juuse Saros, NSH