Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
As always, you’ll find at least one of us in chat in the hour leading up to lock. Please join us there for any late scratches, goalie changes, or other DFS news.
We also have an NHL dedicated Twitter account where you’ll find important news and updates, as well as curated beat writer lists broken down by team.
Also new this season, my personal NHL projections and models are available for download under the projections section of the NHL tab. Of course, you can still access all player projections in our Fantasy Cruncher powered optimizer.
Slate Breakdown Podcast
I’ll be doing podcasts to go along with my write-ups this season. I can cover a whole lot more this way…
A Refresher On My GPP Process
Full disclosure…I am a DraftKings and SuperDraft player. I do not play at all on FanDuel. I will do my best to give you guys the best advice that I can for FanDuel lineups, but I don’t play there myself; please keep that in mind when reading my content or asking questions in chat.
On DraftKings, scoring remains the same for 2021. That means “bonus chasing”. Players receive a 3-point bonus for finishing with 5+ shots on goal, 3+ blocked shots, or 3+ points (goals+assists). While correlation is nice when a line scores 3 or 4 goals in a night, jamming in as many of those far more predictable shot/block bonuses offsets the need for correlation on DK, in my opinion…especially for players entering multiple lineups.
I generally enter at least 150 lineups per night on DK. There is so much variance in this game, and the more lineups you use, the less you are going to be affected by it overall. I want to cram as many shots on goal into my lineups as possible, hoping to find those few diamonds in the rough each night that can hit the peripheral bonuses as well as light up the scoreboard.
My process is extremely volatile. I don’t mind hitting the lock button on one or two players that will almost certainly come close to value with peripherals alone. I also have no problem having zero ownership on some of the guys that don’t shoot as much, but often wind up with multiple goals/assists.
The good nights are going to be very good, and the bad nights will be very bad for me. Many nights, I’m either cashing all 150 lineups or going 0-for. I believe in my process though, and if you can handle the ups and downs, I definitely suggest you use the same process on DK.
In the weeks ahead I’ll be detailing more on exactly how I do what I do, and how to implement the strategy yourself using our optimizer. For now, here are my favorite GPP stacks for tonight’s slate.
Let’s Talk Chalk
Highest Owned Stack: WPG1 – Copp/Scheifele/Ehlers (25-30%)
Best Leverage Play: WPG2 – Wheeler/Stastny/Lowry (4-8%) or Matt Murray (OTT) in goal (1-2%)
Highest Owned Defensemen: Roman Josi, NSH (25-30%)
Best Leverage Play: Ryan Ellis, NSH (15-20%)
Highest Owned Goalie: Connor Hellebuyck, WPG (20-25%)
Best Leverage Play: OTT1 – Tkachuk/Tierney/Brown (3-5%) or Matt Murray (OTT) in goal (1-2%)
Top GPP Stacks
WPG: Nikolaj Ehlers/Mark Scheifele/Andrew Copp
As usual, I’ll start with the chalk. Ottawa has become everyone’s favorite punching bag in DFS lineups early this season. It’s for good reason, though, as the Sens allow a league high 4.14 goals against per game thus far. The Jets are ninth in the league in goals scored per game (3.42), so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they project off the charts in tonight’s matchup. As I always say, if you’re single entering, you’d probably be best finding a pivot off of the chalk. For multi-enterers, matching the field seems appropriate considering the upside tonight. Shoot for about 30% exposure to Winnipeg’s top liners.
WPG: Blake Wheeler/Paul Stastny/Adam Lowry
Look no farther for a pivot than Winnipeg’s second, and much lower-owned line. With the Jets playing a later game, I think we may have an edge here by stacking Lowry together with Wheeler and Stastny. I was digging around earlier and came across a tweet from Jets beat writer Ken Wiebe that suggests Lowry will be taking Vesalainen’s spot on this line. Neither Left Wing Lock nor Daily Faceoff is reporting Lowry in that spot though. This could be a chance to get a decent enough skater playing top six minutes on team projected for nearly 5 goals at about 1% ownership.
LA: Dustin Brown/Anze Kopitar/Alex Iafallo
I mention the positive regression that should be en route for Anze Kopitar, and he proceeds to score in back to back games. No, I’m not a fortune teller. But generally, identifying huge discrepancies in a player’s shot percentage can be. Kopitar’s it back into double digits, but he’s still about 5 percentage points lower than he’s been in previous years…the heater may not be over. It’s not just Kopitar, either. Dustin Brown has come out of nowhere to average a point per game in his last 10. Iafallo is averaging 11.3 DK points over his last seven, with four games of 10+ fantasy points.
VGK: Max Pacioretty/Chandler Stephenson/Mark Stone
I’ve been spending a lot of time writing over and over again about the same stacks for GPP lineups. It’s been the same stacks that continue to put up consistent fantasy numbers though throughout the first month of the 2021 season. This line had a quiet night on Tuesday, though. This is going to scare some people off of Pacioretty and co., but if you know me and how I like to attack GPP’s…it makes me want even more exposure. Stone did record as assist, putting him up to 15 points (3G 12A), with at least a point in nine of ten games. The Golden Knights project for 4+ once again tonight against Anaheim.
VGK: Jonathan Marchessault/William Karlsson/Reilly Smith
Vegas has scored 4+ goals in four straight games. Anaheim has allowed 4+ in four of six. It should be another long night for the scorekeeper in Las Vegas tonight. We generally see a bit more ownership than I am comfortable with on this trio, but with Winnipeg expected to garner a ton of exposure tonight, I think we could get a piece here at a very decent number…could be a sneaky stack here for GPP lineups tonight.
TB: Steven Stamkos/Brayden Point/Ondrej Palat
The Lightning rank No. 2 in the league in both goals per game (3.82) and shots on goal per game (32.4). They’ve lost only one game in regulation thus far. Tonight, they get a matchup against Sergei Bobrovsky and what has been a surprisingly good Panthers team. Listen, Florida has played Detroit 4x, Columbus 2x, Nashville 2x, and Chicago 1x. If you combine the records of these teams with the numbers of times Florida has faced them, their opponents have had a combined record of 40-66-18. I don’t have any data to prove it, but this has to be one of the weakest strengths of schedule in hockey. I think Tampa Bay rolls tonight, and their top line shouldn’t have any trouble getting onto the scoresheet.
CGY: Matthew Tkachuk/Elias Lindholm/Dillon Dube
Another goal for Lindholm; he is off to the best start of his career with 4 goals and 11 assists in 12 games. Calgary is in Vancouver to face the Canucks tonight, who rank second-worst, just behind Ottawa, in goals allowed per game (3.94). Vancouver is also allowing more shots on goal per game (34.7) than any team in hockey. With the Flames on the road, Gaudreau and Monahan should receive most of the attention from the Canucks top defensive skaters, opening the door for what could be a big night from Lindholm, Tkachuk, and the 22-year-old Dube.
CHI: Patrick Kane/Pius Suter/Alex DeBrincat
If Chicago’s last game is any indication, Alex DeBrincat will be lining up on the L1 with Patrick Kane and Pius Suter in pregame warmups this evening. This, of course, is a big upgrade over the like of Mattias Janmark and Philipp Kurashev. DeBrincat is very expensive, which is mainly what will keep me from having too much exposure to this stack. Still, Chicago is on home ice, so Jeremy Colliton will get the chance to put his superstars into top matchups with the last change. Chicago’s power play has started out hot, converting on 35.6% of their chances with the man advantage…good for third in the league.
One-Offs and Defensemen
Calgary: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano
Carolina: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, Nino Niederreiter
Chicago: Calvin de Haan
Columbus: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Boone Jenner, Vladislav Gavrikov
Dallas: Denis Gurianov
Detroit: Filip Zadina
Edmonton: Evan Bouchard
Florida: Anthony Duclair, Carter Verhaeghe, Patric Hornqvist, Frank Vatrano, Aaron Ekblad
Los Angeles: Gabriel Villardi, Jeff Carter
Montreal: Tomas Tatar, Josh Anderson, Tyler Toffoli
Nashville: Colton Sissons, Luke Kunin, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis
NY Islanders: Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Andy Greene
Ottawa: Brady Tkachuk
Pittsburgh: Kris Letang, Pierre-Olivier Joseph
Tampa Bay: Erik Cernak
Vancouver: J.T. Miller, Nils Hoglander, Adam Gaudette, Alexander Edler, Jordie Benn
Vegas: Alex Tuch, Alec Martinez, Nicolas Hague
Winnipeg: Kyle Connor, Mason Appleton, Neal Pionk
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- Kevin Lankinen, CHI
- Andrei Vasilevskiy, TB
- Connor Hellebuyck, WPG
- Calvin Petersen, LA
- Thomas Greiss, DET
- Mike Smith, EDM