Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
As always, I will do my best to keep the article updated to reflect any late scratches, line changes or surprise goalie confirmations. Please follow me on Twitter @RyanClifford as I will always post any updates that affect my article there, as well.
Here’s a breakdown of tonight’s matchups, followed by my stacking recommendations for tonight’s GPP contests. Good luck tonight!
PHI: Sean Couturier – Claude Giroux – Travis Konecny – Ivan Provorov
Philadelphia is on home ice tonight, a spot where they always stick Couturier out there with the opposition’s top forwards. Earlier in the week, I wrote about Jack Eichel’s drastic offensive home/road splits – well, they exist on the defensive side of the puck, too.
Couturier/Giroux/Konecny have skated together quite a bit over the past couple of seasons. When they’re on the ice, the rink is severely tilted in favor of the Flyers – controlling over 60% of the Corsi share, while scoring an average of 3.6 goals per 60 minutes at 5v5.
Provorov fully correlates to the three forwards – both at even strength and on the power play. Buffalo has the league’s worst PK since November 1, killing just 73% of their opponent’s chances with the man advantage.
Want more? Carter Hutton starts in net for Buffalo. In his last nine starts, Hutton is 0-5-4, with a GAA of 3.99 and a 0.875 save percentage. This is a low-key smash spot for the Flyers top line.
Want even more Philly exposure? James van Riemsdyk is the fifth man on the top power play unit, and he’ll give you exposure to the Flyers second line, too.
BOS: David Pastrnak – Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron
ARI: Taylor Hall – Phil Kessel – Christian Dvorak
Everyone jumped on Taylor Hall in his Coyotes debut the other night and his line absolutely flopped. These three will still get their fair share of ownership tonight, but there will be some DFS players that will go elsewhere after getting burned, too.
Minnesota is allowing nearly 4 goals against per game over the past couple of weeks. Devan Dubnyk is returning to action tonight after missing nearly a month. I can’t tell you how much I love targeting goaltenders playing their first game back after a long absence. I don’t have any data, but more often than not it seems to take them a couple of games to get used to the speed of things again. Even before the injury, Dubnyk had not been sharp. He is sitting on a 4-8-2 record this season, with a 3.35 GAA and 0.893 save percentage.
In the past 30 days, Minnesota has the league’s worst PK – just a 69.2% kill rate – while Arizona’s power play sits at No. 5 since November 19. Another very good spot right here.
NSH: Filip Forsberg – Matt Duchene – Rocco Grimaldi
Nashville’s new-look lines exploded for 8 goals on Tuesday night. Grimaldi and Forsberg each scored one in the Preds 8-3 win over the Isles, and they’ll be in a real nice spot again against Ottawa tonight.
The Sens have improved a bit defensively, but they still have a long way to go – as evidenced by last week’s trip to Florida, where they allowed 10 goals against in two games to the Lightning and Panthers.
Grimaldi has more goals than Forsberg and Duchene combined over the past month, so don’t be tempted to leave him off of this stack simply due to name recognition. His salary also brings the full line down to a very reasonable price.
WPG: Blake Wheeler – Nikolaj Ehlers – Jack Roslovic
The Jets are another team with a great matchup tonight. They’ll face a Chicago team that’s allowing more goals against per game than everyone in the league but Detroit over the past month.
I think the Scheifele line is in just as good of a spot, but they’re damn expensive. You can fit these three with almost anyone on the slate, and they’ll get a much better matchup than the top line, too – likely against the Blackhawks bottom-6 forwards and depth defenders.
This line is dominating possession and scoring in bunches. In their past 60 minutes on ice together at 5v5, the Jets have scored 5 goals and generated 40 chances (15 of those have been of the high-danger variety).
OTT: Brady Tkachuk – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – Connor Brown
Ottawa is another team with highly contrasting home/road splits. Over the past two months, the Sens are 8-2 at home – averaging 3.5 goals per game. They’ve netted 4 or more in 8 of 14 home games this season.
You know who else has striking splits? Preds goalie Juuse Saros, who’s 3.24 GAA on the road is over a half goal more than his average on home ice this season.
We tout high floors in cash game articles, well they can be useful in GPP lineups, as well, and these three all have solid peripheral floors to go with their surprisingly high ceilings – 17 combined games with 18 or more DK points between the three Sens this season.
CHI: Jonathan Toews – Dominik Kubalik – Brandon Saad
I believe this will be the highest-paced game on the slate. Winnipeg allows the sixth-most shots per game, has the league’s second-worst penalty kill, and over the past month, the Jets have the league’s highest expected goals against rate at 5v5.
While Kane gets most of the attention in Chicago, we can leverage this line’s lower ownership numbers tonight. The Blackhawks are scoring an average of 4.1 goals per 60 minutes with these three on the ice together at 5v5.
Against the Jets’ horrendous PK, we want exposure to Chicago’s power play, and these three skaters give you a piece of both units – Toews on PP1, Saad and Kubalik on PP2.
VAN: Bo Horvat – Tanner Pearson – Josh Leivo
Similar to the Toews play, this is always a nice leverage stack, against the higher-owned Pettersson line. The Vegas PK has been in shambles lately, killing just 75.6% of their opponent’s PP chances in the past month. The Canucks, on the other hand, have the league’s No. 4 ranked power play in that time. Horvat gives you exposure to the top unit, while Leivo and Pearson skate on the PP2.
This isn’t the greatest even-strength matchup, but these three do excel at 5v5, too. They are controlling 56.9% of the Corsi share on home ice, and the Canucks are generating a ton of shots and chances any time this line is on the ice. Their xGF/60 sits over 3, while they’ve actually managed to score at a rate of nearly 4 GF/60 in home games.
Just like I wrote about the Jets, the top line is a fine play, too but you’re paying a lot more and dealing with more ownership, as well.
NSH: Kyle Turris – Craig Smith – Colin Blackwell
If you need to go really cheap tonight, this line looked great in their first game together – generating a goal and 4 chances (3 of them high danger), on 7 attempts, in just under 8 minutes of ice time on Tuesday night.
Turris and Smith both skate on the second power play unit, so you can use them in a mini-stack – Blackwell doesn’t possess much offensive upside. Smith is also one of my favorite one-offs, as he’s just too cheap…still.
One-Offs and Defensemen
After you’ve got your stacks plugged in, here’s a list of my favorite high-upside one-offs and defensemen.
ARI: Clayton Keller
BOS: Charlie McAvoy
BUF: Jack Eichel
CAR: Sebastian Aho, Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin
CBJ: Oliver Bjorkstrand
CGY: Travis Hamonic, Mark Giordano
COL: Nathan MacKinnon
LA: Tyler Toffoli, Matt Roy
MIN: Kevin Fiala
MON: Shea Weber, Ben Chiarot, Nick Cousins, Joel Armia, Tomas Tatar
NSH: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi
NYI: Brock Nelson
VGK: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore
WPG: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- David Rittich, CGY
- Philipp Grubauer, COL (not yet confirmed)
- Connor Hellebuyck, WPG
- Anton Khubdobin, DAL (insanely high upside and zero ownership, but very risky)
For more goalie plays and analysis – check out my Goalie Model, which is update daily.