Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
As always, I will do my best to keep the article updated to reflect any late scratches, line changes or surprise goalie confirmations. Please follow me on Twitter @RyanClifford as I will always post any updates that affect my article there, as well.
Process Update: I finally got around to making a full video tutorial on my new SOG-based GPP process! It can be viewed here:
My last GPP article was on Tuesday. In the six slates since then, I’ve profited just twice – Tuesday 3/3 (thanks to the late slate) and Thursday 3/5. So, it hasn’t been a good week, but I have tested this enough that I’m confident it will turn around. It is an all-or-nothing approach, meaning the swings are bigger, but you need to be able to deal with them. If you’re exercising proper bankroll management that shouldn’t be an issue. I play about 5% of my bankroll each night.
Here are tonight’s projected SOG leaders, along with my current GPP exposures. I’ll follow it up with my favorite stacks if you’re still favoring the traditional builds:
Top GPP Stacks
WSH: Alex Ovechkin – Jakub Vrana – Nicklas Backstrom – T.J. Oshie – John Carlson
Another big power play stack for GPP’s. One of tonight’s referees in Buffalo is Steve Kozari. Kozari calls more penalties than any other official in the league. His 50% of calls on the home team is also sixth-highest out of 40+ officials, too. Buffalo’s kill has been awful for months, and we know Ovechkin is one of the most dangerous shooters in hockey with the man advantage. Vrana-Backstrom-Oshie will avoid the tough matchups with the game in Buffalo. Linus Ullmark will start his first game in about six weeks for the Sabres. If you have followed my work for the past couple of seasons, you know I am a big fan of targeting goalies returning from injury.
VGK: Max Pacioretty – William Karlsson – Nicolas Roy
Without Mark Stone in the lineup, Roy remains on the top line with Pacioretty and Karlsson. With the increased ice time, he’s registered a combined 9 shots on goal in his last two games. He’s still priced at the stone cold minimum on DK and not much more than that on FD. Pacioretty’s 11 goals in his last 15 games have propelled him into the top-12 on the NHL’s goal list this season. Karlsson has registered 9 points (5G 4A) in his last seven alongside of Pacioretty. Vegas is in Edmonton tonight.
EDM: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Leon Draisaitl – Oscar Klefbom
Over the past two months, Edmonton owns the league’s top power play, converting on 30.6% of their chances with the man advantage. The Vegas PK in that time? Dead last. The Golden Knights PK ranks No. 31 in that time, killing just 67.2% of their opponent’s chances. Even though Vegas is a team that does a great job of slowing down opponent’s pace, this special teams matchup is mouthwatering. Make sure McDavid actually goes tonight, as it’s been reported that he’s dealing with an illness of some kind.
WPG: Kyle Connor – Mark Scheifele – Blake Wheeler
I have Arizona-Winnipeg projected as the highest-paced game on the slate and it’s not even close – a full 15 shot attempts more than any of the other matchups. Each of these three Jets skaters has piled up 11-12 points in their last 10 games. The Jets have won five straight on home ice, averaging nearly 4 goals per game. The Coyotes, meanwhile, have lost 10 of 12 on the road.
WPG: Patrik Laine – Cody Eakin – Nikolaj Ehlers
While Scheifele’s line is absolutely worthy of the lofty expected ownership tonight, this is a trio that will give you plenty of upside for over $5,000 less. Expect about 5-10% ownership here, compared to the 15-20% WPG1 will carry. This line is incredibly high event to this point, and although they’re controlling only about 48% of the Corsi share, an average of 4.2 GF/60 and xGF/60 of 3.1 are numbers that pop out to me.
ARI: Vinnie Hinostroza – Derek Stepan – Lawson Crouse
With the high expected pace in this game, I actually like both sides of the matchup. My favorite stack from Arizona’s side – with ownership, salary, and upside considered – is the Derek Stepan line. There are a lot of high-priced stacks on the slate tonight, and if you are looking to fit in the COL1, WSH1, EDM1, WPG1’s of the world, you’ll need some value, and this is my favorite cheap stack available.
COL: Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Vladislav Namestnikov
Anze Kopitar’s line is generally pretty good at holding the opposition’s top lines off of the score sheet, and they’ve been really good at it in recent weeks. However, MacKinnon and Landeskog have been piling up the shots on goal, with six of DK’s 3-point bonuses for 5+ SOG between the two of them in Colorado’s last five games. Landeskog has points in seven straight games (4G 6A), Namestnikov has scored in two of his last three games on the top line, while MacKinnon has double-digit fantasy points in 16 of his last 17 games. I get it if you want to fade based on matchup, but the floor from peripherals alone combined with the upside makes this a stack I cannot ignore.
One-Offs and Defensemen
After you’ve got your stacks plugged in, here’s a list of my favorite high-upside one-offs and defensemen.
Arizona: Taylor Hall
Buffalo: Jack Eichel, Kyle Okposo
Los Angeles: Adrian Kempe, Gabriel Valardi, Ben Hutton
St. Louis: Oskar Sundqvist, Colton Parayko, Alex Pietrangelo
Vegas: Shea Theodore
Washington: Carl Hagelin
Winnipeg: Andrew Copp, Mathieu Perreault, Neal Pionk
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- Connor Hellebuyck, WPG
- Mikko Koskinen, EDM
- Chris Driedger, FLA
- Darcy Kuemper, ARI (the only goalie projected for 35+ saves)
For more goalie plays and analysis – check out my Goalie Model, which is update daily.