Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
As always, you’ll find at least one of us in chat in the hour leading up to lock. Please join us there for any late scratches, goalie changes, or other DFS news.
We also have an NHL dedicated Twitter account where you’ll find important news and updates, as well as curated beat writer lists broken down by team.
Also new this season, my personal NHL projections and models are available for download under the projections section of the NHL tab. Of course, you can still access all player projections in our Fantasy Cruncher powered optimizer.
Slate Breakdown Podcast
I’ll be doing podcasts to go along with my write-ups this season. I can cover a whole lot more this way…
Slate Preview: Game/Team Projections
Let’s Talk Chalk
Highest Owned Stack: EDM1 – Draisaitl/McDavid/Yamamoto (35-45%)
Best Leverage Play: EDM2 – Nugent-Hopkins/Ennis/Puljujarvi (10-20%) or Matt Murray (OTT) in goal (1-3%)
Highest Owned Defensemen: Barrie/Burns/Nurse (20-25%)
Best Leverage Play: Erik Karlsson, SJ (8-12%)
Highest Owned Goalie:
Jordan Binnington, STL (20-25%) Mikko Koskinen, EDM (20-25%)
Best Leverage Play:
SJ1 – Kane/Couture/Labanc (12-16%) or Martin Jones (SJ) in goal (1-3%) Brady Tkachuk, OTT (4-6%) or Matt Murray (OTT) in goal (1-3%)
Top GPP Stacks
EDM: Leon Draisaitl/Connor McDavid/Kailer Yamamoto (Proj Own: 35-45%)
This is one of the scariest fades of the year, but I implore you to look for a lower-owned pivot if you’re a single entry player. Imagine McDavid and Draisaitl each score 40 fantasy points and are 40% owned. In a GPP, about 20% of the field cashes, so you’ll now be in a group of lineups twice that size looking to hopefully min cash. You will need the absolute nuts in the rest of your lineup to hit anything substantial. We shouldn’t need a reminder about the amount of variance in this game. Now imagine EDM1 flops. Now you’re in a GPP with only about 60% of entries not drawing dead. If your 10% owned pivot smashes, you’re now in the top 6% of lineups. This is a very good line in a very good spot, but you will win way more single entry tournaments by fading stacks like this. Fade and pray. MME guys, you’ll want to match the field here at about 45% exposure.
COL: Gabriel Landeskog/Mikko Rantanen/Valeri Nichushkin (Proj Own: 10-20%)
Colorado is another team shuffling up their lineup for tonight’s game. Nathan MacKinnon remains out, but Landeskog and Rantanen will be reunited with the min-priced Valeri Nichushkin. My model projects the Avs for 72.4 shot attempts against the Coyotes tonight, which is the highest number of the season in that category. Only OTT1 and SJ1 are projected for more shots at the line level tonight. This is a nice pivot off of the Edmonton chalk tonight. Samuel Girard mans the point on Colorado’s top power play unit. He’d be the preferred stacking option for me here.
COL: Brandon Saad/Nazem Kadri/Andre Burakovsky (Proj Own: 10-20%)
I certainly prefer the Avs top line, especially if we’re looking at similar ownership, but if you consider the cost factor, you can save yourself about $3,000 to use for the rest of your lineup by stacking this second line over COL1. We already mentioned the potential for there to be a lot of rubber flying at the Arizona net tonight. Kadri and Burakovsky should also be on the Avs top power play, so there is a whole lot of upside here. Once again, with the power play correlation, Samuel Girard is the add-on at defense. If you want to go all-in on Avs, a power play mega stack spanning both of Colorado’s top lines could be a way to attack this slate.
VAN: Jake Virtanen/Bo Horvat/Tanner Pearson (Proj Own: 15-20%)
Another team I really like tonight is the Vancouver Canucks. They’ve just won three of four against Toronto and Winnipeg, their division’s top two teams. Elias Pettersson went down and we assumed the Canucks would falter, but back-to-back wins against the Leafs sans Pettersson have this team right back in the playoff hunt. They will play two straight against the division’s fourth-place Habs team, who’ve lost six of their last eight. These teams have already met five times this season, with a total of 44 goals being scored. High pace, lots of goals, a hot team that’s being motivated by the loss of their franchise player, facing a crumbling team trying to find their way after a coaching change. Give me all of the Canucks tonight.
VAN: Brock Boeser/J.T. Miller/Nils Hoglander (Proj Own: 10-15%)
Yes…all of the Canucks. All three of these guys scored their last time out, with 3 point games being produced by both Boeser and Miller. Hoglander has scored twice in his last four, and remains just $4,100/$3,600. Boeser and Miller play on the team’s PP1 with Horvat/Pearson and Quinn Hughes. This is another opportunity to full stack a power play to give yourself exposure to a team’s top two forward lines.
LA: Dustin Brown/Anze Kopitar/Alex Iafallo (Proj Own: 5-10%)
Another day, another slate where we can roster the Kings top line at single digit ownership. John Gibson likely starts in goal for Anaheim tonight. He’s lost an astounding 12 of his last 14 starts, holding a GAA of 3.29 and save percentage of just 88% in those games. Anze Kopitar remains in the league’s top ten in both assists and points this season. It’s been a remarkable season for the 33-year-old. Dustin Brown’s 12 goals rank him No. 8 in the league. The Kings power play has been brilliant, converting on 25.3% of their chances with the man advantage. Therefore, Drew Doughty should be considered a priority add to this stack on defense. Doughty correlates in all three phases of the game with Kopitar and Iafallo, and ranks in the top five of both goals and points from defenseman this season.
One-Offs and Defensemen
Anaheim: Max Comtois, Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg, Josh Manson
Arizona: Tyler Pitlick, Nick Schmaltz, Jakob Chychrun (FD)
Colorado: Devon Toews (FD)
Edmonton: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (FD), Tyson Barrie, Kris Russell
Los Angeles: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty
Minnesota: Jordan Greenway, Ryan Suter
Ottawa: Brady Tkachuk, Nick Paul, Artem Zub
San Jose: Kevin Labanc, Evander Kane, Rudolfs Balcers, Timo Meier, John Leonard
St. Louis: Jordan Kyrou, Mike Hoffman, Torey Krug, Justin Faulk (FD)
Vancouver: Adam Gaudette, Alexander Edler, Travis Hamonic, Jordie Benn
Vegas: Alec Martinez (FD)
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- Mikko Koskinen, EDM
- Ville Husso, STL
- Calvin Petersen, LA
- Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK
- Darcy Kuemper, ARI *lock if not playing any Avs