Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
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Slate Preview: Game/Team Projections
Let’s Talk Chalk
Highest Owned Stack: EDM1 – Nugent-Hopkins/McDavid/Puljujarvi (15-20%)
Best Leverage Play: Leon Draisaitl, EDM (5-10%); Darnell Nurse/Tyson Barrie, EDM (4-8%); Carey Price (MON) in goal (1-3%)
Highest Owned Defenseman: Adam Fox, NYR (15-20%)
Best Leverage Play: Jacob Trouba, NYR (3-6%)
Highest Owned Goalie: Jacob Markstrom, CGY (15-20%)
Best Leverage Play: OTT PP1 – Tkachuk/Stützle/Batherson (2-4%)
Top GPP Stacks
EDM: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins/Connor McDavid/Jesse Puljujarvi (Proj Own: 15-20%)
With 10 games on the slate tonight, I’m not sure I’d classify 15% ownership as chalk, but I do expect McDavid and co. to be the highest owned stack. #97 is on a hot streak, even for his standards. He’s recorded at least a point in nine straight games, totaling 7 goals and 13 assists; better than two points per game in this stretch. Montreal, like most of the North, plays a high-tempo game that generally leads to high scoring nights. Only Tampa Bay averages more goals per game than the Oilers to this point. With the fifth-ranked power play in hockey, I think Leon Draisaitl and/or Tyson Barrie are worthy add-ons to this stack for more PP1 correlation.
VGK: Mark Stone/Chandler Stephenson/Alex Tuch (Proj Own: 5-10%)
I love the Golden Knights tonight. At the team level, my projections have them atop the slate in projected goals. St. Louis has won back-to-back games, but the wins came at the hands of the Sharks, the No. 27 ranked team in the NHL at the moment. Before those games, the Blues lost five straight, allowing 21 goals in those matchups with L.A., Vegas, and San Jose. In three games this season, the Golden Knights have put 14 goals on the scoreboard against this Blues team. No Pacioretty, sure, but Alex Tuch is a capable point producer and high volume shooter that can fill the Patches role just fine. Shea Theodore is the defenseman of choice to add-on to this stack. Theodore is getting pretty much all of the PP minutes for Vegas, and has piled up 9 points (2G 7A) in his last seven games.
OTT: Brady Tkachuk/Tim Stützle/Drake Batherson/Thomas Chabot (Proj Own: 2-4%)
Calgary is one of the few teams Ottawa has had success against this season. They’ve won three of five against the Flames, scoring an impressive 21 goals in those games. Many will be targeting the Flames tonight, as they’ll face Filip Gustafsson in goal, but I like the other side of this matchup. For those on DraftKings, I really like the idea of the power play stack with Tkachuk, Stützle, Batherson and Chabot. Tkachuk piles up the shots on goal, often hitting the 3-point bonus on DK. On FanDuel, where shots on goal don’t matter as much, I think I prefer just mini-stacking Stützle and Batherson, perhaps adding Chabot onto the stack for some PP correlation. Either way, give me the Sens with almost no ownership over a high-owned Flames team tonight in Ottawa.
MIN: Kirill Kaprizov/Joel Eriksson Ek/Mats Zuccarello (Proj Own: 3-6%)
First things first, Eriksson Ek may not be skating with Kaprizov and Zuccarello tonight. Marcus Johansson is returning to the Wild lineup, and actually practiced with JEE yesterday. However, Minnesota head coach Dean Evason has already mentioned the possibly of more line shuffling before tonight’s game. Depending on who centers Kaprizov and Zuccarello, this will either be a 3-man or a 2-man stack. I like the two wingers, regardless. Minnesota has scored on an average of 4 goals per 60 minutes at 5v5 with the two out together, and you’re also getting plenty of minutes on the team’s PP1. Brad Hunt is the point man on that unit, and is a nice cheap add-on to the stack.
CAR: Sebastian Aho/Martin Necas/Jordan Staal/Andrei Svechnikov/Dougie Hamilton (Proj Own: 5-10%)
I’ve been playing more and more power play stacks as the season goes on. Especially on DraftKings, where you’re not relying on correlation so much, it’s become beneficial to stack up a player like Aho or Brady Tkachuk. These are guys who can hit a peripheral bonus and are essentially a lower risk addition to a stack than a cheap plug winger like Jesper Fast. If a team’s power play really clicks and scores a couple of goals on any given night, you may wind up with some point correlation on a stack that is more contrarian than the traditional full line. Well, Carolina’s PP ranks No. 1 in the NHL, converting on 31.3% of chances with the man advantage. Tonight’s opponent, the Columbus Blue Jackets, enter with the league’s fifth worst PK (73.3%).
VAN: Brock Boeser/Bo Horvat/Nils Hoglander (Proj Own: 3-6%)
Elias Pettersson remains out for Vancouver, who are now 7-2 without him. This team is overachieving without their superstar center, and a big reason for that has been the play of Bo Horvat. Horvat has stepped up in a big way, with 5 goals and 5 assists in nine games. In ~52 minutes of 5v5 play with Hoglander and Boeser, the Canucks are scoring at a rate of 6.8 goals per 60 minutes. While my model has Vancouver scoring less than 3 tonight, they are grading out for a slate-high 35.5 scoring chances per 60 and 14.2 high danger chances per 60. Quinn Hughes skates with Horvat and Boeser on the team’s top power play unit. He’d be my preferred add-on to this stack.
VGK2 – Jonathan Marchessault/William Karlsson/Reilly Smith/Shea Theodore (Proj Own: 7-14%)
MON1 – Brendan Gallagher/Phillip Danault/Tomas Tatar/Jeff Petry (Proj Own: 4-8%)
One-Offs and Defensemen
Anaheim: Jamie Drysdale
Arizona: Jakob Chychrun (FD)
Buffalo: Sam Reinhart
Calgary: Dillon Dube, Rasmus Andersson
Carolina: Nino Niederreiter, Brett Pesce
Colorado: Jacob MacDonald
Columbus: Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic, Zach Werenski
Edmonton: Josh Archibald, Adam Larsson
Los Angeles: Dustin Brown, Adrian Kempe
Minnesota: Zach Parise (DK), Kevin Fiala, Nick Bjugstad, Jonas Brodin
Montreal: Josh Anderson
NY Islanders: Oliver Wahlstrom
NY Rangers: Pavel Buchnevich, Colin Blackwell, Jacob Trouba
Ottawa: Colin White, Clark Bishop, Nikita Zaitsev
San Jose: Kevin Labanc, Ryan Donato
St. Louis: Jaden Schwartz (DK), Jordan Kyrou
Vancouver: Tyler Motte, Travis Hamonic
Vegas: Cody Glass, Alec Martinez, Shea Theodore, Nicolas Hague
Winnipeg: Nikolaj Ehlers
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- Mike Smith, EDM
- Keith Kinkaid, NYR
- Jonathan Quick, LA
- Filip Gustafsson, OTT
- Connor Hellebuyck, WPG
- Thatcher Demko, VAN
- Antti Raanta, ARI