Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
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Slate Breakdown Podcast
I’ll be doing podcasts to go along with my write-ups this season. I can cover a whole lot more this way…
Podcast will be posted around 5 pm EST…
Slate Preview: Game/Team Projections
Let’s Talk Chalk
Highest Owned Stack: EDM1 – Draisaitl/McDavid/Yamamoto (30-40%)
Best Leverage Play: EDM2 – Ennis/Nugent-Hopkins/Puljujarvi (10-15%) or OTT goalie (1-3%)
Highest Owned Defenseman: Tyson Barrie, EDM (20-30%)
Best Leverage Play: Darnell Nurse, EDM (10-15%)
Highest Owned Goalie: Logan Thompson, VGK (25-30%)
Best Leverage Play: STL2 – Hoffman/Schenn/Perron (3-5%)
Top GPP Stacks
EDM: Leon Draisaitl/Connor McDavid/Kailer Yamamoto (Proj Own: 30-40%)
As if ownership wasn’t high enough already on Wednesday night, Edmonton’s star-studded top line went absolutely ham on the Sens, and is sure to see an even greater share of ownership in tonight’s rematch. If you’re playing a single entry contest, I am going to suggest you fade this stack, as scary as it is. MME players should aim to match the field with about 40% ownership. Massive upside here, for sure, but we’ve seen players in better spots than this flop before, too. If you are going to play them, I’d recommend you find a way to get contrarian within the build itself. Perhaps you add Nugent-Hopkins and Barrie for power play exposure. Maybe you add on Darnell Nurse, who correlates with this trio at 5v5. Alex Chiasson and James Neal rotate as the fifth man on Edmonton’s PP1, maybe sticking them with this stack could be a way to differentiate yourself.
OTT: Brady Tkachuk/Chris Tierney/Connor Brown (Proj Own: 3-6%)
This may be more of a case to fade Edmonton than a recommendation to play Ottawa, but the underlying numbers tell a much different story about this matchup. Despite the Sens losing all six games to Edmonton this season, they’ve actually controlled a majority of the attempt and shot share at 5v5. Their 2.44 xGF/60 actually sits slightly above the Oilers 2.35. While shot and chance numbers have been almost equal this season, the Oilers are scoring over 4 goals per 60 minutes against the Sens at 5v5. If we are to trust the data, Edmonton has benefitted from some luck, and probably some poor Ottawa goaltending. We can get a lot of leverage by stacking up Sens here. Maybe not something I’d recommend single entry players try, but definitely have some exposure if you’re playing multiple lineups, this game could be a lot closer than most think.
SJ: Evander Kane/Logan Couture/Kevin Labanc (Proj Own: 8-12%)
Couture has scored 7 goals in his last 10 games, Kane has registered 5 goals and 5 assists in his last eight, and Labanc has 3 goals in six games. With Tomas Hertl coming back into the lineup, I’m expecting a lot of San Jose ownership to move over to him and Timo Meier, and I’m not sure that’s the right move. Not only has this trio been scoring at a rate of nearly 5 goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 games, but you’ll also get more exposure to the team’s top power play with Kane and Couture skating there…Anaheim has the league’s fourth-worst PK. Erik Karlsson is the point man on that unit, and makes a nice add-on at defense here.
ANH: Max Comtois/Ryan Getzlaf/Rickard Rakell (Proj Own: 5-10%)
UPDATE: Vinni Lettieri will skate with Comtois and Getzlaf. While I don’t like the stack as much, I still like Comtois and Getzlaf as a mini-stack, and Lettieri won’t cost you much if you want full correlation.
Things seemed to be turning around offensively for this team last week, with back-to-back wins of 5-4 against Colorado and 6-5 against the Kings. Then they were dropped by the Kings 5-1 on Wednesday. Despite their atrocious defensive play of late, they are averaging 3.3 goals per game through the month of March thus far, which ranks them No. 8 in the league. Only the Ottawa Senators allow more goals against per game than the Sharks, so we could see a couple of high scoring games between these teams over the next couple of nights. The Ducks have already scored 4 even strength goals in about 27 minutes with these three on the ice.
ANH: Jakob Silfverberg/Adam Henrique/Trevor Zegras (Proj Own: 10-15%)
UPDATE: Max Jones will skate with Henrique and Silfverberg. While I don’t like the full stack as much, I still like Henrique and Silfverberg as a mini-stack, and Max Jones won’t cost you much if you still want full correlation.
I’d expect a bit more ownership on this Ducks stack, but I like them just the same. Trevor Zegras, the highly touted top-10 draft pick of Anaheim in 2019, is still looking for his first NHL goal. He has incredible offensive talent, and his strong play (despite the lack of scoring) has forced the Duck brass to keep him in the lineup. He’s 0-for-15 shooting to this point. That isn’t going to last much longer, expect him to to start popping some pucks into the net very soon. Adam Henrique has been producing at a high level since being waived by the team last month. He’s now posted 2 goals and 3 assists in his last four games. Some big value here, specifically on FanDuel. Add Rakell and Shattenkirk to this stack for complete PP1 coverage.
ARI: Clayton Keller/Christian Dvorak/Tyler Pitlick (Proj Own: 1-3%)
If you’re rostering Oilers tonight, it’d probably be a good idea to look for a secondary stack with extremely low ownership tonight. Oh yeah, they’ll need to be pretty cheap, too. Arizona’s top line fits the bill, with Keller/Dvorak/Pitlick costing just about $12k on both sites. Keller is in the midst of a six-game point streak, and has totaled 8 goals and 13 assists in just 26 games thus far. He’s managed a point-per-game pace over his last 17 games, dating back to the beginning of February. And how about Tyler Pitlick? The guy who normally doesn’t see the light of day outside of a bottom six role, is on pace to smash his career highs after playing in the Coyotes top six for most of the season. He’s scored three times in his last three games.
One-Offs and Defensemen
Anaheim: Isac Lundestrom
Arizona: Nick Schmaltz, Jakob Chychrun (FD)
Colorado: Jacob MacDonald
Edmonton: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Devin Shore, James Neal, Darnell Nurse, Tyson Barrie
Los Angeles: Alex Iafallo, Matt Roy
Minnesota: Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Suter
Ottawa: Nick Paul
San Jose: Rudolfs Blazers, Ryan Donato
St. Louis: Robert Bortuzzo (DK)
Vegas: Alec Martinez (FD), Dylan Coghlan (DK)
Goalies
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- Mike Smith, EDM
- Antti Raanta, ARI
- John Gibson, ANH
- Logan Thompson, VGK
