Ryan Clifford brings you his top stacks and goalies for your NHL DFS GPP lineups tonight.
As always, you’ll find at least one of us in chat in the hour leading up to lock. Please join us there for any late scratches, goalie changes, or other DFS news.
We also have an NHL dedicated Twitter account where you’ll find important news and updates, as well as curated beat writer lists broken down by team.
Also new this season, my personal NHL projections and models are available for download under the projections section of the NHL tab. Of course, you can still access all player projections in our Fantasy Cruncher powered optimizer.
Slate Breakdown Podcast
I’ll be doing podcasts to go along with my write-ups this season. I can cover a whole lot more this way…
No podcast tonight. I’ll be on a short vacation for the next couple of days…we’ll get back at it next week.
Slate Preview: Game/Team Projections
Let’s Talk Chalk
Highest Owned Stack: EDM1 – Nugent-Hopkins/McDavid/Puljujarvi (20-30%)
Best Leverage Play: EDM2 – Ennis/Draisaitl/Yamamoto (5-10%) or Jacob Markstrom (CGY) in goal (5-10%)
Highest Owned Defensemen: Dougie Hamilton, CAR (30-40%)
Best Leverage Play: Jaccob Slavin, CAR (1-3%)
Highest Owned Goalie: James Reimer, CAR (25-35%)
Best Leverage Play: CHI1 – DeBrincat/Suter/Kane (5-10%) or Kevin Lankinen (CHI) in goal (5-10%)
Top GPP Stacks
CGY: Matthew Tkachuk/Elias Lindholm/Andrew Mangiapane (Proj Own: 15-25%)
As the only game with an over/under of 6.5, I’d expect there to be a lot of ownership in this one. While most will be on the Oiler stars, we’ll still see people try to get cute with Flames. As always, McDavid and co. are an easy fade for me when they’re chalk. Very low shot floor could mean disaster if they can’t get onto the scoresheet more than once or twice. I’ve got the Flames top liners projected for not only more shots, but chances and goals, too. If I want exposure to this game, give me the slightly lower-owned Flames. For the second straight game, it was Juuso Valimaki that led Calgary defensemen in power play time. He’s still a huge value at less than $4k on both sites.
CAR: Teuvo Teravainen/Sebastian Aho/Brock McGinn (Proj Own: 10-20%)
Expect a decent amount of ownership here, too. The Hurricanes top line had a coming out party on Monday night against the Blue Jackets. They didn’t have quite the same success against the Panthers, which is too be expected. Chicago allows more shots against than any team in hockey, so it comes as no surprise that my model projects Carolina for the most shots on goal on tonight’s four-game slate. I will say the one thing that concerns me in GPP’s about this line is the lack of power play coordination. Brock McGinn doesn’t even see the ice when the Canes have the man advantage, and Aho/Teravainen play on separate units. Still, if the Blackhawks goaltending doesn’t hold up, it could be a monster night for these three. While it burned me on Monday night, I’m generally not a fan of Brock McGinn, and tend to have a lot of mini-stack exposure to Aho and Teravainen.
FLA: Anthony Duclair/Aleksander Barkov/Carter Verhaeghe (Proj Own: 8-12%)
The Panthers have been the surprise team of the season in the NHL. They ranks top 10 in just about everything at the team level: No. 2 in wins (10), No. 1 in point percentage (.786), No. 7 in SOG/game (31.4), No. 9 in GF/game (3.36), No. 7 in power play efficiency (29.3)…the list goes on. They’ve taken full advantage of playing in the league’s weakest division, and have been specializing in beating up on bad teams. Detroit is one of those teams, having already lost 3 of 4 to the Panthers this season. Both of Florida’s top two forward lines are in play for me in GPP’s tonight. I loathe Alex Wennberg as a DFS play, so I tend to prefer this stack overall.
FLA: Patric Hornqvist/Alex Wennberg/Jonathan Huberdeau (Proj Own: 8-12%)
I am not opposed to a Panther mega-stack on tonight’s four-game slate. Hornqvist and Huberdeau play on the team’s top power play unit with Barkov, Keith Yandle, and Aaron Ekblad. Whether it be the full stack plus one of Duclair/Verhaeghe on DK, or the three forwards and either Ekblad/Yandle on FD; I am going to want some lineups with an all-out Florida blitz. As usual, I have no time for Alex Wennberg in DFS lineups. Very little floor, and extremely inconsistent production render him useless to me. Yes, he’s scored four times in six games, and yes, he’s still just $3,500 on DK; not into him.
WPG: Blake Wheeler/Mark Scheifele/Kyle Connor (Proj Own: 15-20%)
I’m not 100% sure these three will skate together at 5v5. Winnipeg was trying out different combinations against Edmonton on Wednesday night, and did have this line skating together for most of the second period in that one. Even if they don’t start together, chances are we’ll see some more shuffling at some point. Why I’m still confident rolling this stack out is due to 1) the opponent: Vancouver is low-key one of the league’s worst defensive teams, allowing 3.6 goals against per game; only Ottawa is allowing more. And 2) full power play correlation: even if the lines are blended, we know these three will be on the ice together during the Jets power play chances. No team in hockey has taken more penalties than the Vancouver Canucks. In fact, it’s not even close. Vancouver has taken 93 penalties thus far, 13 more than the second-ranked Senators. The Jets should have plenty of chances with a man-up, so you can count on quite a bit of correlation here regardless of the even strength lineup.
VAN: Tanner Pearson/Bo Horvat/Nils Hoglander (Proj Own: 10-15%)
This has essentially been Vancouver’s top line at even strength of late, consistently getting more minutes than the Boeser/Pettersson line. These three are very cheap as far as top lines go, just $12,900 for the full stack on DK, $14k on FD. Horvat gives you exposure to the Canucks top power play, while Hoglander and Pearson both skate on the second unit. We just talked about how many penalties the Canucks take. Well, we all know refs tend to try to keep things rather even as far as whistles go. Vancouver leads the league with 93 penalties taken, but also leads the league in penalties drawn with 85…this isn’t be coincidence! The beauty of this stack is that it gives you full exposure to Vancouver’s power play. Winnipeg continues to struggle killing penalties on the road, entering tonight with just a 68.4% kill rate.
One-Offs and Defensemen
Calgary: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano, Juuso Valimaki
Carolina: Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin
Chicago: Dominik Kubalik, Brandon Hagel, Carl Soderberg
Detroit: Bobby Ryan
Edmonton: Tyler Ennis, Kyle Turris, Josh Archibald, Darnell Nurse
Vancouver: J.T. Miller, Adam Gaudette, Alexander Edler, Jordie Benn
Winnipeg: Nikolaj Ehlers, Derek Forbort, Neal Pionk
Here are my top GPP goalies:
- Kevin Lankinen, CHI
- Mikko Koskinen, EDM
- Thatcher Demko, VAN