Another two game slate as the second round rolls on. Here’s a full breakdown of today’s NHL DFS options for your DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft lineups.
My projections have been loaded into the optimizer for DK, DK Showdown, FD, and SuperDraft.
Also, don’t forget that we’ve started a Twitter account to post any lineup news, injury news, goalie confirmations, etc. Please follow this account, as this is where I will be posting lineup updates leading up to games. You’ll find the new page on Twitter @nhl_ef. You can also follow me on Twitter @RyanClifford.
Here’s a quick overview of today’s matchups, totals, and win probabilities:
The average cutline in single entry double-ups on two-game slates this season:
DraftKings: 93.1 (1.9x salary)
FanDuel: 114.5 (2.1x salary)
DraftKings: Max Pacioretty (VGK), Tyler Toffoli (VAN), Shea Theodore (VGK), Alexander Edler (VAN)
FanDuel: Mark Stone (VGK), Jordan Eberle (NYI), Shea Theodore (VGK), Alexander Edler (VAN)
Positional Cash Game Rankings
Kevin Hayes (PHI)/Brock Nelson (NYI)/Jean-Gabriel Pageau (NYI) – Be sure to keep an eye on the status of Sean Couturier and Mathew Barzal pre-game tonight. If they are out, the value of all three of the above players goes through the roof. If Couturier is out, Hayes is just about a lock for me. If Barzal is out, Nelson and/or Pageau will also be right near lock status with increased minutes.
Bo Horvat (VAN) – If both Barzal and Couturier are in, I’ll probably wind up with Hayes and Bo Horvat in my cash game lineup. Horvat is averaging a goal per game and 5 peripherals per in his last four.
Max Pacioretty (VGK) – A quiet game five for Patches netted him 11.8 DK points (5 SOG+1 BS). He’s hit double digit fantasy points in six of his last seven.
Mark Stone (VGK) – 6 goals and 9 assists in 13 games since the restart, he has registered multiple-point games in four of those. Doesn’t shoot as much as I’d like, but his 1.36 projected points (G+A) tonight makes him the *only* player projected for more than a full point.
Anders Lee (NYI) – Another Islander that loves to fire the puck, Lee has scored 6 goals in his last ten, while averaging nearly 4 SOG/game.
Tyler Toffoli (VAN) – Toffoli had another quiet game, but I trust him to get back to his old ways of high shot volume as he works himself back into game shape. 4 points (2G+2A) in four games since coming back, his presents a lot of value for just $5,400 on DK.
Shea Theodore (VGK) – A no-brainer for cash games. During his current seven-game point streak, Theodore has 2 goals and 8 assists, while averaging over 5 peripherals per game; he’s hit 3-point peripheral bonuses on DK in four of five.
Alexander Edler (VAN) – You can’t talk about peripherals without mentioning the king. In his last six, Edler has averaged 5 blocks and 3 shots per game, hitting seven 3-point bonuses on DK.
VALUE Christopher Tanev (VAN) – I like Tanev more on FanDuel and SuperDraft. He’s accounted for 41 blocked shots in his last 13 games. Very low ceiling here, but if you need to pay down in order to fit some better wingers, Tanev might be your man. I don’t mind him on DK, either, especially after he hit yet another 3-point bonus for 3+ blocks last time out.
Today’s Projected Shots on Goal Leaders
Shea Theodore (VGK) 4.4
Max Pacioretty (VGK) 4.0
Alex Tuch (VGK) 3.7
Jonathan Marchessault (VGK) 3.3
William Karlsson (VGK) 3.0
Anders Lee (NYI) 2.8
Nate Schmidt (VGK) 2.5
Tyler Toffoli (VAN) 2.5
Mark Stone (VGK) 2.3
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (NYI) 2.2
If you prefer to build your GPP lineups with traditional stacks, here are my favorites for the slate:
VGK1: Max Pacioretty – William Karlsson – Mark Stone
Huge pace and shot volume from these three, as well as massive upside relative to the rest of the slate’s options. Vegas is projected for nearly 40 shots on goal tonight.
VGK2: Reilly Smith – Paul Stastny – Jonathan Marchessault
Not nearly the same upside as the Karlsson line, but we have seen games where these are the guys to do most of the scoring. At probably half the ownership numbers as the top line, these three provide nice leverage in that scenario.
***Don’t ignore the power play stack, either. On DK, I love the idea of a 6-man “Josh Stack”. With the power play taken into consideration, the ideal six for that build would be Pacioretty – Stone – Stastny – Marchessault – Theodore, and either Karlsson or Reilly Smith to round out your correlated mega stack.
VALUE VGK3: Alex Tuch – Nicolas Roy – Nick Cousins
Can you tell which team I’ll be targeting tonight? These three are in a similar situation to the trio above them. Lower ownership, lower cost, and could pay off massively if the pucks bounce right for them and wrong for the others. Someone on the Golden Knights squad is going to score tonight.
NYI2: Anthony Beauvillier – Brock Nelson – Josh Bailey
If these three stick together – which likely depends on if Barzal if out – they are my preferred stack from the early game. Again, all three correlate on the power play. They all shoot the puck a decent amount. In my opinion, this is the Isles top line if Barzal is out.
VALUE NYI3: Leo Komarov – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – Derick Brassard
Again, it depends on Barzal’s status. If Pageau moves up between Lee and Eberle, that would be my preference, but the Isles third line will have very little ownership (outside of Pageau). They’ve proven that they can score in this series against the Flyers questionable defensive depth. This would be an option to pair with the expensive VGK1 or VGK PP1 stack.
Here are my top options in goal…
- Jacob Markstrom/Thatcher Demko (VAN) *Leverage play only, for your non-VGK lineups…will face huge shot volume
- Semyon Varlamov (NYI)
- Carter Hart (PHI)
For more goalie plays and analysis – check out my Goalie Model, which is update daily.