The Roval. A wildcard for the drivers in the playoff elimination round. This is a 109 lap event on a road course…
ROVAL 400 DFS Breakdown
- Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course
- Sunday 9/29/19 – 2:30 PM
- 2.28 mile Road Course
Mafia, there are a lot of unknowns this weekend. This is only the 2nd running here, and last year provided lots of chaos. Should be an interesting weekend.
This is the first elimination race of the playoffs. After Sunday, only 12 drivers will be eligible for the championship.
Last Race Notables: Ryan Blaney won.
- Laps Led – Larson: 47, Keselowsk: 29, Blaney: 16
- Start/Finish – Blaney 9/1, Harvick 19/9, Newman 29/11, Hamlin 27/12, DiBenedetto 28/13, Ragan 30/16, Chastain 35/24
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
ROVAL 400 DFS PICKS
Kyle Busch ($10,700) – Starting 17th. Beast.
Brad Keselowski ($10,000) – Starting 11th. Led 29 laps here last year. Ended up crashing and not finishing well, but he can drive this track.
Chase Elliott ($9,600) – Starting 19th. Finished 6th here last year. Fast car + good team + sub par starting position……………Sign me up!!!
Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – Starting 28th. Lot’s of upside here. Finished 12th here last year. Team Joe Gibbs.
Kurt Busch ($9,000) – Starting 23rd. Back against the wall. Win or get bumped from the playoffs. Started 1st and finished 5th here last year.
Kyle Larson ($9,400) – Starting 7th. Led the most laps here last year. Expect him to be strong again Sunday.
Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – Starting 9th. Won last year. Running fast in practice. That is enough for me. Blaney will anchor a number of lineups.
Clint Bowyer ($8,400) – Starting 5th. Finished 3rd last year. Solid run staring Clint right in the face. Fast in practice, should run up front with the leaders.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,600) – Starting 18th. Finished 13th here on a bad team last year. Team upgrade = race upgrade. Makes sense to me.
Chris Buescher ($7,000) – Starting 12th. Finished 17th here last year. Look for a similar showing this weekend. Although he was a bit disappointing last week, that happens.
Daniel Suárez ($7,300) – Stating 13th. Fast in practice, runs these road courses well. Nice run for Suárez on Sunday.
David Ragan ($5,600) – Starting 27th. Finished 16th last year. I expect this vet to roll around the roval safely for a solid finish.
ROVAL 400 PICKS TO WIN
- Kyle Busch
- Brad Keselowski
- Kyle Larson
- Sleeper – Ryan Blaney
Last race predictions: Federated Auto Parts 400
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.