Ricky Sanders has the breakdown and his favorite plays for tonight’s NBA DFS slate!!
Due to the massive size of the slate, it was going to be impossible to do a game-by-game breakdown prior to livestream, so today’s GPP breakdown will be in a similar style to those typically written by Seige/Healy. On slates below eight games, game-by-game breakdowns will still be the norm.
Players are based on DK pricing/positions. Plays noted with (FD) are notably good plays on FanDuel. Please read the entire article, as the rankings are explained in the bottom half (along with what news can radically shift these rankings).
- Victor Oladipo
- Patty Mills
- Raulo Neto
- Shai Gilgeous Alexander/Luka Doncic
- Derrick White
- Bradley Beal
- Khris Middleton
- Ben McLemore
- Denzel Valentine
- Devin Booker
- Taurean Prince
- Deni Avdija
- Keldon Johnson
- Sterling Brown
- Talen Horton-Tucker
- LeBron James
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Rui Hachimura
- Frank Kaminsky
- Michael Porter Jr.
- Juan Toscano-Anderson
- DeMarcus Cousins
- Marc Gasol
- Al Horford
- Chris Boucher
- Gorgui Dieng
Top Stud over $8K: Bradley Beal
Top Value under $5K: Deni Avdija
DK Core: Bradley Beal, Deni Avdija, DeMarcus Cousins, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Top Stud over $8K: LaMelo Ball
Top Value under $5K: Patrick Williams
FD Core: LaMelo Ball, DeMarcus Cousins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Patrick Williams
Key News to Watch:
Denver Nuggets – Jamal Murray is listed as questionable to play and his absence would open up additional point guard minutes for the likes of Monte Morris and Facundo Campazzo. He seems closer to probable but it seems noteworthy that Nikola Jokic has averaged 1.98 DK fantasy points per minute (FPPM) with the two of them off the floor. Oh, and Michael Porter Jr. is above a full FPPM in that scenario as well, so those would be the other two big winners.
Minnesota Timberwolves – If this sounds like a repeat, well, that is because it is, and, yet again, D’Angelo Russell is listed as questionable. Anthony Edwards has played 30-plus minutes in four consecutive games now, and his usage has ballooned to 28.1-percent in the four contests without the starting point guard. In the last game against Oklahoma City, Edwards played 31-minutes, shot 16 times and finished with 20 points, eight rebounds, four assists and 41 DK fantasy points. Also, Ricky Rubio would see a few additional minutes unlocked as well, but he has been annoyingly unproductive even when Russell has sat. Juuuuust as a side note, Karl-Anthony Towns was upgraded to doubtful today, but the team expected him back at some point last week, so there is a tiny possibility he could return tonight as well (although seemingly extremely unlikely at this point).
Los Angeles Lakers – After receiving the Anthony Davis news (he is out), technically only Alex Caruso is questionable, but this felt like a situation worth diving into. Sans Davis in rotation, the Lakers have been a volatile bunch, with Kyle Kuzma having been the one to blast off two of the past three times without him. In total, Kuzma has averaged 28.0 DK FPPG without Davis whereas Montrezl Harrell is only at 24.2 and Talen Horton-Tucker is not far behind at 20.7. Given Horton-Tucker’s price, he becomes one of the better sources of salary relief now, with Kuzma being the mid-tier value to pound. LeBron James’ minutes were extended (to 36) the last time Davis sat and, with the additional usage, that makes him an intriguing ceiling play in all formats and on all sites as well.
Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies – The 223.0-point total does not tell the whole story here as the Raptors are a team consistently playing a condensed rotation and the minutes for Ja Morant are starting to ramp up on the other side of the ball. Jonas Valanciunas’ return would have hurt the prospects of members in the frontcourt if it were not for Brandon Clarke essentially replacing him on the inactive list. In other words, Xavier Tillman is still freed for a sizeable role, just playing more power forward, and just in time for a great rebounding matchup versus the Raptors (who rank just 24th in rebounding rate). Chris Boucher has seen 27-plus minutes in back-to-back games but it remains to be seen if the team is comfortable deploying him in a similar role versus a larger team. If they are, then Boucher is once again underpriced, and should one of the starting points for the Raptors stack.
Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls – Although there is no Russell Westbrook tonight, plenty of points should still be scored in a game that featurest of the bottom four defenses in points allowed per-48 minutes. No Lauri Markkanen on the Bulls side condenses them a bit as well and leaves guys like Denzel Valentine, Thaddeus Young and Patrick Williams unusually large projected minute allotments. On the Wizards side, Deni Avdija is the big winner other than Bradley Beal considering he has played 27-plus minutes in three of the past four games Westbrook has sat (and has averaged 24.5 DK fantasy points per game during that stretch). Beal is a walking 30-plus points, especially with Westbrook out, so he should be considered amongst the top spends and a cash game lock on DK. Make sure to have a minimum of 1-2 players from this game in all lineups.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Denver Nuggets – Do not sleep on this game with a 4.0-point spread and a 233.0-point total (sneakily higher than the Warriors/Spurs). Given the fact that Jamal Murray is questionable, the Nuggets have a chance to be quite thin, and the Bucks play their regulars huge minutes when the score remains close throughout. In other words, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton all possess the chance to play minutes up into the high-30s and in a game where they will not have to face the elite defense of Gary Harris. If this game remains as close as Vegas expects, at least one of Antetokounmpo/Holiday/Middleton are a virtual guarantee to find their way into tournament-winning lineups.
Slate Edges: Deni Avdija