Ricky Sanders has the breakdown and his favorite plays for tonight’s NBA DFS slate!!
Due to the massive size of the slate, it was going to be impossible to do a game-by-game breakdown prior to livestream, so today’s GPP breakdown will be in a similar style to those typically written by Seige/Healy. On slates below eight games, game-by-game breakdowns will still be the norm.
Players are based on DK pricing/positions. Plays noted with (FD) are notably good plays on FanDuel. Please read the entire article, as the rankings are explained in the bottom half (along with what news can radically shift these rankings).
PG
- Ja Morant
- Malcolm Brogdon
- Luka Doncic
- Kyle Lowry
- Terry Rozier
SG
- James Harden
- Dillon Brooks
- Denzel Valentine
- Luguentz Dort
- Khris Middleton/Bradley Beal/Zach LaVine
SF
- Kyle Anderson
- Nicolas Batum
- Will Barton
- Kawhi Leonard/Khris Middleton
- Pat Connaughton
PF
- Isaiah Roby
- Domantas Sabonis
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Michael Porter Jr.
- P.J. Washington
C
- Andre Drummond
- Al Horford
- Myles Turner
- Chris Boucher
- Guillermo Hernangomez
DraftKings:
Top Stud over $8K: Domantas Sabonis/James Harden
Top Value under $5K: Isaiah Roby
DK Core: Domantas Sabonis, James Harden, Isaiah Roby, Ja Morant
FanDuel:
Top Stud over $8K: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Top Value under $5K: Patrick Williams
FD Core: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Andre Drummond, Patrick Williams, Devin Booker (if no Chris Paul)
Slate Notes:
Key News to Watch:
Phoenix Suns – Chris Paul is still questionable after missing last game and the 2019 version of Devin Booker showed up since he was once again able to dominate the usage. In that game, Booker garnered a ridiculous 41.9-percent usage, 40.2-percent assist rate and even flirted with a double-digit rebound rate (8.7-percent). Over time, those numbers are not sustainable even with Paul out, but it just shows what a bargain fantasy owners get with him whenever Paul sits. If that role were to continue tonight, Booker is still drastically underpriced across the industry, and would be bordering on must-play.
Minnesota Timberwolves – This is starting to get repetitive but, once again, D’Angelo Russell is listed as questionable. Considering he has played in each of the team’s last four games, it would seem this one is not worth getting worked up about if it were not for the fact he only played six minutes last game. Basically, this seems like the likeliest game for him to sit since the month of February began and that means an Anthony Edwards massive usage game could be on the horizon. To reiterate, Edwards has posted a 28.1-percent usage rate in four games without Russell and he has averaged 31.5 minutes per game in the month of February. I feel like I have been writing about this everyday but, today, I think this finally comes to fruition. The problem with this is it comes in a matchup versus Kawhi Leonard and it is possible the usage funnels elsewhere (i.e. Malik Beasley). The per-dollar value of Edwards would be tough to overlook but this would actually be a game where there is conversation to be had choosing between the two.
Toronto Raptors – In one of the best game environments of the night, both O.G. Anunoby and Yuta Watanabe are questionable, with beat writers speculating this should be the night Anunoby returns. For that reason, I have assumed him in projections and Watanabe out, which provides even less obstacles than normal for Chris Boucher to play 25-plus minutes. It should be noted Kyle Lowry left Monday’s game with back spasms but is not even listed on the injury report. Basically, if Anunoby returns, he will take away from the upside of guys like Norman Powell, Terence Davis and DeAndre’ Bembry, but the usuals are still in play for a team with a whopping 119.5-point implied total.
Key Games:
Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets – Lately, the Nets are basically a daily fantasy cheat code as they have not played in a game that ended with fewer than 232 total points since Jan. 25. Since then, they are on a seven-game streak where they have averaged 126.4 points per game (PPG) and their opponents have averaged 127.3 PPG. To put that differently, Nets games have produced an average of 253.7-points over a seven-game span which is absolutely insane. Expect their defensive woes to continue without Kevin Durant tonight especially in the frontcourt. Whereas the Nets rank sixth in backcourt efficiency defense this year, they rank 27th against opposing frontcourts specially, which is the reason names like Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner jump off the page tonight. On the Nets side, James Harden has started to look like the Rockets version, especially without Durant, as he is able to handle the ball more often. DeAndre Jordan is still priced at a reasonable level on DK and the whole game has the potential to blast off.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Chicago Bulls – These two teams have been talking trades but they also both play a fun brand of basketball. Of the two, the Bulls play at the faster pace, and Vegas expects this to resemble the pace of tonight’s game being played in Chicago. No Otto Porter Jr. or Lauri Markkanen has opened extended opportunities for the likes of Tomas Satoransky, Patrick Williams, Denzel Valentine and Garrett Temple. It also has allowed Zach LaVine to dominate the usage closer to the way he had earlier in the year. When either Porter or Markkanen has been out, LaVine has averaged a 33-plus percent usage, and he ranks amongst the top overall plays of the night. As for the Pelicans, Guillermo Hernangomez has provided the team with quality minutes off the bench, and both Brandon Ingram/Zion Williamson should thrive in a game versus a team severely lacking rim protection. Each of their respective ceilings is massive but they negatively correlate with one another and only a maximum of one should be played in a single lineup (unless full game-stacking and playing for the potential overtime equity).
Charlotte Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies – Each team is missing an important member of their respective rotations and it is tough to tell which is more consequential. The Hornets will be without Devonte Graham which opens up additional minutes and usage in the backcourt and the Grizzlies will be without Brandon Clarke. Guys like Ja Morant, Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas are the big winners here with Morant’s minutes looking like they are back to normal (36-plus last game). The Hornets struggle to defend the paint which should raise an eyebrow for those who know the paint skills of guys like Morant and Valanciunas. The 224.0-point total does not sniff some of the bigger totals of the night so this game could fly under the radar way more than it should.
Slate Edges: Ja Morant (this is the ceiling game!) and locking Devin Booker in all lineups if Chris Paul is out
