Ricky Sanders has the breakdown and his favorite plays for tonight’s NBA DFS slate!!
Due to the massive size of the slate, it was going to be impossible to do a game-by-game breakdown prior to livestream, so today’s GPP breakdown will be in a similar style to those typically written by Seige/Healy. On slates below 10-games, game-by-game breakdowns will still be the norm.
Players are based on DK pricing/positions. Plays noted with (FD) are notably good plays on FanDuel. Please read the entire article, as the rankings are explained in the bottom half (along with what news can radically shift these rankings).
- John Wall
- Monte Morris
- Ja Morant
- Lonzo Ball
- Dejounte Murray
- Will Barton
- Luguentz Dort
- D’Angelo Russell (if active)
- Donte DiVincenzo
- Buddy Hield
- Anthony Edwards (if D’Angelo Russell out)
- Jerami Grant
- DeMar DeRozan
- Cameron Johnson
- LeBron James/Khris MIddleton
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Jaden McDaniels (if Naz Reid out)
- Brandon Clarke
- Gordon Hayward
- Xavier Tillman
- Andre Drummond
- Steven Adams
- Ed Davis
- Cody Zeller
- Brook Lopez
Top Stud over $8K: Andre Drummond/Giannis Antetokounmpo
Top Value under $5K: Monte Morris
DK Core: Andre Drummond, Monte Morris, Will Barton
Top Stud over $8K: Luka Doncic
Top Value under $5K: Cameron Johnson
FD Core: Luka Doncic, Will Barton, Cameron Johnson, Ja Morant
Key News to Watch:
Charlotte Hornets – Terry Rozier is listed as questionable after leaving yesterday’s game with an ankle sprain. Why does this matter? Well, LaMelo Ball started the second half in Rozier’s absence and ended up playing nearly 20-minutes in the half. Obviously, just doing the simple math, that would put Ball on close to a 40-minute pace if that were to hold over a full game. If Rozier were to sit tonight, Ball would be an excellent play across the industry, even with an inflated price point ($6,300 on FD, $6,500 on DK). On paper, the matchup against the Heat is not perfect but it is not awful either (Heat rank 15th in defensive efficiency versus opposing backcourts).
Miami Heat – In the same game, Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic are both listed as questionable, and their absences would open up playing time for other members in the backcourt rotation. With Jimmy Butler back, their absences would be less impactful than they would have been, say, a week ago. Still, if both were to miss tonight’s contest, Kendrick Nunn would see minutes into the mid-30s and would become a viable mid-range option.
Minnesota Timberwolves – A questionable D’Angelo Russell leaves the state of the Timberwolves offense in flux and would open up additional minutes for the likes of Ricky Rubio/Jordan McLaughlin/Anthony Edwards. In January, Rubio averaged 3.0 additional minutes in the games without Russell while McLaughlin’s minutes rose by about eight per game and Edwards rose by a single minute. Do not look now but Edwards is starting to come on strong (23-plus real points in two of his last three) so tonight could be his coming out party if Russell indeed did remain on the pine. Also, Naz Reid may or not play, and Jaden McDaniels has played 20-plus minutes each game he has sit this year, including last night where he racked up four stocks in exactly 20 minutes of court time.
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans – Easily the highest total of the night comes from the tilt between the Kings and Pelicans which should come as no surprise; each team ranks in the bottom 10 of points allowed per-48 minutes. Normally, the Kings play at a much faster pace (12th in pace) than the Pelicans (17th), but the lack of defense should boost the scoring potential of the game regardless. In close games, Coach Luke Walton has been letting his starters play massive minutes, so the minute upside of De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes stretches into the upper-30s. On the Pelicans side, Steven Adams is questionable but faces an amazing matchup versus a team that allows putbacks at the eighth highest frequency. Each of the two teams rank in the bottom four of points per possession allowed in transition which bodes well for guards on both teams. Lonzo Ball is so underpriced, and is so active in the transition game, that he is firmly in play yet again. Although his rates are a down a bit this year, the price has come down as well, which is all you need to know in a game with a 233.0-point total.
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls – While the 218.5-point total does not jump off the page, the condensed rotation of the Knicks always makes them valuable, especially against a team ranking in the bottom six of efficiency defense. Only the Wizards and Kings allow more points per-48 minutes than the Bulls and they allow the second most points per halfcourt plays. Why does this matter? A slower-paced Knicks team designs nearly all of their plays for the half court, running the fifth highest frequency of halfcourt plays in the league. A correlation like that is unmistakable and guys like R.J. Barrett, Julius Randle and even Reggie Bullock get a boost from the matchup. As for the Bulls, Lauri Markkanen is back to playing big minutes, and Zach LaVine’s price is back down to $9,000 on DK. If this game remains close, running back Barrett lineups with one of the two Bulls stars makes quite a bit of sense, especially with each playing massive minutes on a nightly basis.
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder – Speaking of teams that do not defend halfcourt sets well, the Thunder are not far behind the Bulls in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions (115.5 for the Bulls compared to 114.0 for Oklahoma City). Meanwhile, the Rockets run halfcourt sets at the third highest frequency, behind only the Thunder and Suns. Again, the pace of this game is likely not going to be Earth-shattering, but it is secondary, lesser-owned games that often win tournaments. Prices on both sides of the ball are intriguing with no single price point in this game standing out more than John Wall. If playing Wall, Luguentz Dort is a cheap run-back option with huge upside given all the minutes he plays, and Al Hoford/Shai Gilgeous-Alexander/Theo Maledon are all priced within the realm of reasonability as well.
Slate Edges: Anthony Edwards (if D’Angelo Russell out) and making sure to include a player from the Bulls/Knicks game