Ricky Sanders has the breakdown and his favorite plays for tonight’s NBA DFS slate!!
Due to the massive size of the slate, it was going to be impossible to do a game-by-game breakdown prior to livestream, so today’s GPP breakdown will be in a similar style to those typically written by Seige/Healy. On slates below eight games, game-by-game breakdowns will still be the norm.
Players are based on DK pricing/positions. Plays noted with (FD) are notably good plays on FanDuel. Please read the entire article, as the rankings are explained in the bottom half (along with what news can radically shift these rankings).
PG
- Malcolm Brogdon
- Darius Garland
- Reggie Jackson
- Russell Westbrook
- Fred VanVleet/Coby White
SG
- Hamidou Diallo
- D’Angelo Russell (if active)
- Denzel Valentine
- Isaac Okoro
- Zach LaVine/Paul George
SF
- Taurean Prince
- Jerami Grant
- Cameron Johnson
- Jaylen Brown (if active)
- Darius Bazley/Gordon Hayward
PF
- Justin Jackson
- Domantas Sabonis
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Lauri Markkanen
- Kevin Durant/Jayson Tatum (but Tatum becomes a smash play if Brown out)
C
- Nikola Vucevic
- Al Horford
- Deandre Ayton
- Aron Baynes
- Myles Turner
DraftKings:
Top Stud over $8K: Domantas Sabonis/Nikola Vucevic
Top Value under $5K: Taurean Prince
DK Core: Domantas Sabonis, Hamidou Diallo, Taurean Prince
FanDuel:
Top Stud over $8K: Domantas Sabonis
Top Value under $5K: Cameron Johnson
FD Core: Domantas Sabonis, Hamidou Diallo, Cameron Johnson, Goran Dragic
Slate Notes:
Key News to Watch:
Boston Celtics – Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard are both listed as questionable for the Celtics tonight and their absences would open up additional minutes and usage for other players. To this point, Kemba Walker has maxed out at 31-minutes, although it should be noted the 31-minutes came in the team’s most recent game. In other words, he is getting close to playing full minutes, and the absences of one or both of these players could help accelerate that process. Elite point guard (PG) defender Patrick Beverley remains out so he should draw one of the more favorable individual matchups in the game. Stay tuned.
Minnesota Timberwolves – Yet again, D’Angelo Russell is listed as questionable, and, if he were to sit, Anthony Edwards would be tasked with running the offense. In three straight games now, Edwards has played 30-plus minutes, and his usage has ballooned to 29.9-percent in the three contests without the starting point guard. Also, Ricky Rubio would see a few additional minutes unlocked, but Edwards is the player to watch in this scenario.
Cleveland Cavaliers – On the 1:30pm ET injury report, Collin Sexton is still questionable, and that is a bit annoying. However, if he ends up sitting, Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro would be the direct beneficiaries. With Sexton on the floor this year, Garland has garnered a 21.6-percent usage rate and has averaged 0.85 DK fantasy points per minute (FPPM). When Sexton has been on the bench, those numbers have increased to 26.6-percent usage and 1.0 DK FPPM. As for Okoro, he has improved from a 9.4-percent usage and 0.45 DK FPPM with Sexton to a 14.2-percent usage and 0.50 DK FPPM without him. Okoro is just cheap but Garland would become the cream of the crop mid-tier value (even against a difficult opponent).
Key Games:
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder – Two injury-struck, subpar teams squaring off against each other may not prove to be a fantastic product to watch but it should bode well for the fantasy prospects of players involved. A 220.0-point implied total is not crazy high on this slate but the Thunder defense has tanked without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (27th in defensive efficiency during that span) and the Timberwolves defense has atrocious all year long (27th in defensive efficiency overall). The Thunder are thin and missing their superstar while the Timberwolves may be missing both of their top scorers in Karl-Anthony Towns and the aforementioned D’Angelo Russell. Guys like Hamidou Diallo, Justin Jackson, Darius Bazley and Al Horford should all be expected to step into larger roles than normal and their prices are still very reasonable for these extended roles. The Timberwolves offense could become quite concentrated as well and I really would love to get alpha Edwards with Russell out.
Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets – While many of the players on the Nets are fully-priced, the same cannot be said for the Raptors on DK, and the price is not much of an issue on a slate that is not lacking value. Stars/scrubs is completely fine given the landscape of the $4,000-$5,000 tier and not a single Raptor is priced over $8,000. Coming off a 54-point explosion, I expect Fred VanVleet to be the most popular of the bunch, but the price point on Pascal Siakam is fantastic as well (given that O.G. Anunoby is out and his minutes are even more solidified in a projected competitive game environment). If playing Siakam or VanVleet, running it back with Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving makes quite a bit of sense, with Durant standing out as my clear favorite play of the bunch.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers – Stacking the first game of the night can be nerve-racking given you have to sit and tilt all night once it is over but this game is loaded with fire-power on both sides. In a fast-paced affair, Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon are two values that jump off the page given all the additional scoring and rebounding opportunities above the norm. Even with Steven Adams back, Guillermo Hernangomez is an intriguing value given the way he has been playing and Adams price on FD specifically is fantastic (as per-usual). Additionally, Lonzo Ball is coming off a game with a 27.8-percent usage, marking the second time in four games in which his usage has exceeded 25.5-percent. There are almost no members of this game that I truly hate but view Sabonis/Brogdon as the game stack building blocks.
Slate Edges: Anthony Edwards (if D’Angelo Russell out) and Fred VanVleet
