Ricky Sanders has the breakdown and his favorite plays for tonight’s massive 12-game NBA DFS slate!!
Due to the massive size of the slate, it was going to be impossible to do a game-by-game breakdown prior to livestream, so today’s GPP breakdown will be in a similar style to those typically written by Seige/Healy. On slates below 10-games, game-by-game breakdowns will still be the norm.
Players are based on DK pricing/positions. Plays noted with (FD) are notably good plays on FanDuel. Please read the entire article, as the rankings are explained in the bottom half (along with what news can radically shift these rankings).
- Darius Garland
- Mike Conley
- Raul Neto/Cassius Winston
- Kemba Walker
- Stephen Curry
- Joe Ingles
- Donte DiVincenzo
- D’Angelo Russell
- Fred VanVleet
- Devonte’ Graham
- DeMar DeRozan
- Jae Crowder/Cameron Johnson
- Mikal Bridges
- Jaylen Brown
- Gordon Hayward
- Anthony Gill (if starting)
- Zion Williamson
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Marvin Bagley III
- Aaron Gordon
- Rudy Gobert
- Richaun Holmes
- Nikola Vucevic
- Brook Lopez
- Cody Zeller
Top Stud over $8K: Stephen Curry
Top Value under $5K: Joe Ingles
DK Core: Stephen Curry, Joe Ingles, Zion Williamson, DeMar DeRozan
Top Stud over $8K: Stephen Curry/Giannis Antetokounmpo
Top Value under $5K: Donte DiVincenzo
FD Core: Stephen Curry, Donte DiVincenzo, Brandon Ingram, Jae Crowder
Key News to Watch:
Indiana Pacers – Arguably the most impactful news of the slate is the status of Domantas Sabonis. Of course, he is a beast on the boards, and, if he were to sit, Myles Turner’s projected rebounding rate would balloon. Quite often, Turner allows Sabonis to do the dirty work on the boards, but no Sabonis would leave Turner as a threat to register 10-plus boards. Given his scoring prowess and double-digit block ceiling, Turner would enter the conversation of primary center plays. Also, Jeremy Lamb, who is coming off 30-plus minutes last game, would take another step up in the offense.
Washington Wizards – Even with six guys ruled out, there is still a big piece of news hanging in flux and that piece of news is…Raul Neto? Seriously, this matters tonight, because if he were to sit then Cassius Winston would have to be unleashed by default. When Russell Westbrook has sat, Neto had started alongside Beal and Ish Smith has come off the bench, with the two splitting 48-minutes of point guard (PG) duty. If Neto and Westbrook are out, then Winston, a rookie, would have a clear path to sizeable minutes. Considering he is priced near the minimum, that would be an intriguing proposition.
Atlanta Hawks – After another monster double-double last night, Clint Capela is listed as questionable tonight as-is Cam Reddish. The potential aspect of Capela is the one that piques my interest as Onyeka Okongwu would probably draw the start if he sat. On Sunday when he started, he only played 16-minutes and John Collins started the second half at center. In that game, he finished with 30-points and nine rebounds, so he looked like the 2019 version of himself. That would once again be possible tonight if Capela were to sit.
Miami Heat – Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro are listed as questionable which leaves the state of the team’s ball-handers in doubt. Herro has been questionable for some time now and has not returned but his return would lower the rates of players like Bam Adebayo, Dragic/Kendrick Nunn, etc. In fact, his presence would limit the playing time of guys like Nunn and Gabe Vincent, so the entire rotation structure would change if he were to return. If looking for Heat value, you will need to see a final injury report before deciding which member of the team to insert into your lineup.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors – Sure, the Timberwolves are not a great team, but if they are able to keep this one reasonably competitive then the pace should be extremely fantasy-friendly (given each team sports a 110-plus implied total). The two teams played two days ago, and the game blew out, but the Timberwolves were without D’Angelo Russell who may return tonight. If he is back, the offense of the Timberwolves should improve, and that could lead to a full allotment of minutes from starters on both teams. Players like Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley and Naz Reid had their minutes cut short due to a blowout last time so they each feature minute upside at least two minutes higher than in Wednesday’s contest.
Washington Wizards @ New Orleans Pelicans – The Wizards are extremely thin on the second end of back-to-back and they lead the league in pace. This year, the Pelicans have slowed down their pace, but facing the Wizards should cause them to get up-and-down the floor quicker than usual. If that is the case, they may start to look like the 2019 version, when they played at the second fastest pace. Lack of rim protection is going to be a major problem for the Wizards against Zion Williamson who has been attacking the basket with a ridiculous aggression in the month of January. This month, Williamson has already topped a 29-percent usage thrice, and he is averaging 27.3 points per game (PPG) over the course of his last four (65.6-percent from the field). The Wizards feature no one who can match up against him so he makes a ton of sense as the clear player to lock-in if thinking about stacking the game. From there, the options are basically limitless, with Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal, Cassius Winston (if Raul Neto out), Raul Neto (if playing) and Anthony Gill all rating as solid options as well.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors – The sneakiest game of the night is a battle between two Eastern Conference powerhouses (although the Raptors’ record does not indicate as much so far) because it could lead to massive minutes from each team. Anytime the Bucks are in a game with a 6.0-point spread or less, that means Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are all on red-alert to play minutes in the mid-to-high 30s. Why is this important? All three are excellent per-minute producers, with Antetokounmpo standing out as the best of the bunch, and that is before acknowledging the secondary pieces (such as Donte DiVincenzo and Brook Lopez). If playing 2-3 members of the Bucks, you will want to run it back with someone on the Raptors, although it is unclear who that may be as of now. Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby are both questionable but the line seems to indicate each will play. If one or both sits, upgrade guys like Stanley Johnson and Terence Davis, although their absences would simply make it more likely that I would play Fred VanVleet/Kyle Lowry instead.
Slate Edges: Play John Collins if Clint Capela sits and play Jeremy Lamb if Domantas Sabonis sits