Ricky Sanders has the in-depth breakdown and all the top plays for tonight’s massive 10-game NBA DFS slate!!
Due to the massive size of the slate, it was going to be impossible to do a game-by-game breakdown prior to livestream, so today’s GPP breakdown will be in a similar style to those typically written by Seige/Healy. On slates below 10-games, game-by-game breakdowns will still be the norm.
Players are based on DK pricing/positions. Plays noted with (FD) are notably good plays on FanDuel. Please read the entire article, as the rankings are explained in the bottom half (along with what news can radically shift these rankings).
PG
- Jalen Brunson
- Malcolm Brogdon
- Kyle Lowry
- Stephen Curry
- Dejounte Murray
SG
- Paul George/Kendrick Nunn (if Herro inactive)
- Eric Gordon
- Josh Jackson
- Collin Sexton
- Damion Lee (if Wiggins inactive)
SF
- Kelly Oubre Jr.
- Kawhi Leonard
- Jerami Grant
- Josh Okogie
- Cameron Johnson/Aaron Gordon
PF
- Jarred Vanderbilt
- Kristaps Porzingis
- Draymond Green
- LaMarcus Aldridge
- Domantas Sabonis
C
- Nikola Vucevic
- Enes Kanter
- Mason Plumlee
- Naz Reid
- Christian Wood/Clint Capela
DraftKings:
Top Stud over $8K: Damian Lillard
Top Value under $5K: Jarred Vanderbilt
DK Core: Nikola Vucevic, Jarred Vanderbilt, Kristaps Porzingis, Kelly Oubre Jr. (especially if Andrew Wiggins out)
FanDuel:
Top Stud over $8K: Kawhi Leonard
Top Value under $5K: Jalen Brunson/DeAndre Jordan
FD Core: Kristaps Porzingis, Kelly Oubre Jr., DeAndre Jordan
Slate Notes:
Key News to Watch:
Miami Heat – The status of Tyler Herro looms large as his absence would open up the Kendrick Nunn value (who has now played 27-plus minutes in back-to-back games). Also, Bam Adebayo is coming off his career-high game in terms of usage sans Herro and he would not be needed to run such a large majority of the offense if Herro suited up. On the other hand, if Herro plays, his price tag on FD is still amazingly low given Jimmy Butler is out, so you would want to play him on that site.
Indiana Pacers – Myles Turner is questionable with a broken hand so I have assumed him out in initial projections. Jeremy Lamb is also questionable and his presence would muddy the value in the backcourt. Assuming both sit, Doug McDermott will continue to have an important role in the offense, Justin Holiday will be a lock to play 20-plus minutes and Goga Bitazde’s role would likely grow comparatively to last game.
Cleveland Cavaliers – Both Darius Garland and Collin Sexton are active but it seems like they are going to play. Basically, they have been assumed in, but we have seen exactly what the rotation looks like without them and it includes a ton of Isaac Okoro. If both sit one more game, Okoro and Lamar Stevens should be two players back on your radar.
Golden State Warriors – This is the last game of the night so Andrew Wiggins being questionable is a frustrating proposition. Usually, Coach Steve Kerr gives us news early, and hopefully that is the case tonight. If Wiggins did not play, Damion Lee and Kent Bazemore would play more minutes but the big winners would probably be Kelly Oubre Jr. and Draymond Green (since they would need to take more shots on the first unit). Also, the Curry usage would go through the roof, so monitor this situation closely.
Key Games:
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers – Both teams are missing one of their main few contributors and that means there are cheap players on each team that should exceed value. Damian Lillard has posted a ridiculous 38.2-percent usage rate without C.J. McCollum since the start of last year so he is still a priority spend even at his expensive price point ($10,400 on DK). Rodney Hood started last game and got hot, which likely kept him in the game for mid-20s minutes, but his 29-percent usage rate is impossible to overlook. Even if his minutes get limited a bit, a mid-20s usage rate would warrant spending the $3,800 for him as well.
Ja Morant’s price tag pops off the damn page given he is back to playing a full allotment of minutes and he is someone that I will not be fading (especially on DK) tonight. Xavier Tillman likely draws the start for Jonas Valanciunas and he has proven to be a solid per-minute producer in just his rookie season. With close to 30-minutes on the horizon, he too is a priority on this slate. Other viable options on the Grizzlies include Brandon Clarke, whose rebound rate should rise, and Gorgui Dieng (on the off-chance he draws the start).
Orlando Magic @ Minnesota Timberwolves: Each team is missing an extremely important part of their rotation (Markelle Fultz and Karl-Anthony Towns) plus Vegas is expecting this game to play at closer to Minnesota’ pace (seventh in pace) than Orlando’s (20th in pace). Evan Fournier’s return to the Magic hurts the usage of the starting unit slightly but that is offset by the fantastic matchup; the Timberwolves rank 28th in defensive efficiency overall and allow the fourth most points per-48 minutes. Aaron Gordon’s minute limit finally appears to be over and he handled the ball quite a bit his last time out (and had a stretch towards the end of last season where he did the same as well). If Gordon plays a similar role tonight, even with Fournier back, he is going to be a worthwhile play alongside teammate Nikola Vucevic. Facing a horrible defensive center in Naz Reid, Vucevic projects to be a monster on a per-minute basis, and he is my favorite superstar investment of the night.
On the Timberwolves side, this is a relatively low total for the team, so the masses may stay away. Naz Reid has quietly played 28-plus minutes in two of his last three games but his production has been hampered by Jarred Vanderbilt playing sizeable minutes alongside him. Vanderbilt is extremely active and is coming off his first career start in which he barely missed a double-double. Presumably, against the size of Gordon, Vanderbilt will start again, and he possesses 30-plus minute upside. The price has risen but he is still very playable…as are Josh Okogie, Anthony Edwards (if the game gets out of hand) and D’Angelo Russell. If playing multiple Magic players, you will want to run it back with a Minnesota player too.
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors – With a 1.0-point spread in this game, the game is obviously expected to remain competitive, which is great news for players on both sides of the contest. On the Spurs side, Coach Gregg Popovich is always willing to pull the plug quickly if a game gets out of hand, but he has also been known to extend the minutes of his usuals when games remain competitive. DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge and Dejounte Murray are not players popping off the page in projections but their upside certainly stretches beyond the number they are being assumed for. For instance, Murray played 35:23 in a competitive game against the Rockets on Jan. 14, and he is only being projected for 33.5-minutes tonight. A perfect game flow could lead to a fantasy bonanza and those three plus Keldon Johnson are the players with tournament-winning ceilings.
As for the Warriors, Stephen Curry is the obvious name that comes to mind, but the status of Wiggins is really important here too. If Wiggins were to sit, not only would more usage flow through Curry, but other members of the starting lineup would have to step up as well (Kelly Oubre Jr., Draymond Green, James Wiseman). Of course, Wiseman is coming off an epic flop as chalk and he has another tough cover tonight in Aldridge. If he can stay out of foul trouble, it would not be surprising for Coach Steve Kerr to try and restore his confidence by playing him minutes in the upper-20s (so do not forget about him in GPPs).
LATE ADDITION: KINGS @ CLIPPERS – Kings were blown out last time these two played but, if the Kings can put up a fight, all their games end up stackable and they are allowing by far the most points per-48 minutes (122.7) of any team. If Buddy Hield or De’Aaron Fox can keep the score relatively close, one of Kawhi Leonard or Paul George is going to flirt with a ceiling game.
Slate Edges: Fade Cameron Johnson and play one of Kawhi Leonard/Paul George
