Get off the beaten path with RadThad’s NBA DFS Breakdown, plays designed to help you take down a GPP!!
What’s up my peeps? Today’s NBA DFS main slate is loaded, as we have been gifted a “nine-gamer”, as the young folks say. Even if we fall victim to the “Infinity Gauntlet” and find ourselves losing a game, we’re still sure to have our hands full.
There’s a lot of known chalk, expected chalk and surefire studs out there, so a “studs and scrubs” approach will dominate when it comes to roster construction. Chalk is known to fail, so don’t hesitate to generate a balanced lineup or two in GPPs.
There’s a ton of potential late breaking news. These days, this is how you gain your edge on your opponent, so stay sharp. I’ll be sure to post updates to the article and send out notices via the “Twitter machine”.
Remember that this is a GPP article, so don’t get flustered if some of the “chalkier” names aren’t listed below. The “meat” of the article is at the bottom, so I won’t be offended if you want to start there.
-Both Kyrie Irving (BKN) AND Kevin Durant (BKN) are out tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers. As a result, both James Harden (BKN) and Bruce Brown Jr (BKN) become core plays.
-Lauri Markkanen (CHI) will sit tonight against the Orlando magic. This gives a boost to both Patrick Williams (CHI) and Thad Young (CHI), making them cash game viable.
–Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC), Luguentz Dort (OKC) and Theo Maledon (OKC) are all IN, however, Al Horford (OKC) is OUT. In an attempt to keep things interesting, Isaiah Roby (OKC) and Darius Bazley (OKC) are now considered “game time decisions”. Roby would be an excellent value option in cash games if he plays. If he doesn’t play, Mike Muscala (OKC) would take his place as that “excellent value option in cash games”. Gilgeous-Alexander is in play in cash games on FanDuel.Personally, I think it’s a situation that should be avoided.
Updated FanDuel cash game core: Doncic, Harden, Ricky Rubio (MIN), Garrett Temple (CHI) and DeMarcus Cousins (HOU).
Updated DraftKings cash game core: Harden, Brown, Jr., Thad Young (CHI), Nikola Vucevic (ORL) and DeMarcus Cousins (HOU).
1. Luka Doncic (DAL)
2. Steph Curry (GSW)
3. +Trae Young (ATL)
4. +Ben Simmons (PHI)
5. Kyle Lowry (TOR)
Hon. mention: Ja Morant (MEM)
1. James Harden (BKN)
2. Zach LaVine (CHI)
3. DeMar DeRozan (SA)
4. Fred VanVleet (TOR)
5. Bruce Brown (BKN)
Hon. mention: Norman Powell (TOR)
1. +LeBron James (LAL)
2. +Kevin Durant (BKN)
3. Pascal Siakam (TOR)
4. Malik Beasley (MIN)
5. Tobias Harris (PHI)
Hon. mention: Kelly Oubre, Jr. (GSW)
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
2. +Anthony Davis (LAL)
3. Kristaps Porzingis (DAL)
4. Zion Williamson (NO)
5. Draymond Green (GSW)
Hon. mention: Bobby Portis (MIL)
1. +Joel Embiid (PHI)
2. Nikola Vucevic (ORL)
3. Al Horford (OKC)
4. Thad Young (CHI)
5. Naz Reid (MIN)
Hon. mention: Montrezl Harrell (LAL)
Top Stud (over $8K on FD): Luka Doncic (followed by Giannis Antetokounmpo)
Top Stud (over $8K on DK): Luka Doncic (followed by Giannis Antetokounmpo)
Top Value (under $5K on FD): Isaiah Roby (followed by Kenrich Williams)
Top Value (under $5K on DK): Isaiah Roby (followed by Kenrich Williams)
– If you’re taking the “studs and scrubs” approach Luka Doncic (DAL), Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL), James Harden (BKN) and Joel Embiid (PHI) have the highest ceilings on the slate (in that order).
-On FanDuel my most common cash core of players consists of Luka Doncic (DAL), Hamidou Diallo (OKC), Kenrich Williams (OKC) and Isaiah Roby (OKC). You can actually throw either Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) or Anthony Davis (LAL) in there as well. I expect these guys to be very heavily owned, so consider using other options in tournaments.
-On DraftKings, I’m getting a lot of Doncic, Diallo, Williams, Roby and Nikola Vucevic (ORL). Rajon Rondo (ATL) will likely make the cut as well, if Trae Young (ATL) sits again with a calf injury.
– If you’re looking to construct a low-owned lineup, here are a few recommendations that will buck the current roster construction trends for this slate:
-“How many Oklahoma City Thunder players is too many?” If you played NBA DFS yesterday, this is going to be like “déjà vu all over again”. Minnesota and Oklahoma City played each other last night and the Thunder continue to be plagued with injuries. George Hill (OKC) is “out”, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC), Theo Maledon (OKC) and Luguentz Dort (OKC) are considered to be “game time decisions”. If the injury situation remains unchanged and Oklahoma City has enough players to get this game in, everyone will have rosters jam-packed with the likes of Diallo, Williams and Roby. As you can tell from the cash game core plays listed above, I’m expecting last night’s situation to repeat itself. Having a roster full of Oklahoma City Thunder players on a five-game slate like last night is one thing, but tonight we’re dealing with a nine game “free-for-all”. Don’t be afraid to fade these guys in tournaments, in the hopes that your opponent rosters either too many of them or the wrong ones. If you can’t fade the Thunder completely, try to consider lower-owned options like Al Horford (OKC) or Darius Bazley (OKC).
–“ How many Brooklyn Nets players is too many?”. Kyrie Irving (BKN) will not play in Saturday’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers due to a finger injury, while Kevin Durant (BKN) is currently listed as “questionable” due to the league’s health and safety protocols. James Harden (BKN) will be a heavily targeted member of the Nets, even if Durant plays, but if Durant sits the “fantasy floodgates” will open. Guys like Bruce Brown, Jr. (BKN), Jeff Green (BKN) and Joe Harris (BKN) will become contenders to receive “core play” status (in that order). This game doesn’t tip off until 8 PM Eastern, so we may not find out until the slate starts. In the meantime, consider these guys as potential options for your lineup until everything is “official”.
-“I’m going back to Cali.” The Golden State Warriors injury situation might not be as “dire” as the Oklahoma City Thunder, but the personnel manning their frontcourt is “wafer thin”. Kevon Looney (GSW) and James Wiseman (GSW) are both “out” for Saturday’s game against the Dallas Mavericks, while Eric Paschall (GSW) is considered “questionable”. If Paschall sits, we will get a case of “double déjà vu” on the slate, as these teams played each other on Thursday. Consider going back to the well with Green, Toscano-Anderson, Curry, Oubre and/or Wiggins (in that order). The Brooklyn Nets and Oklahoma City Thunder players will get most of the attention so these guys should be lower owned.
–Spend up at the small forward position. It’s still relatively early in the roster construction process, however, it seems as though spending down at small forward will be a common theme across all sites. With guys like Kenrich Williams (OKC) and Justin Jackson (OKC) currently expected to be attractive value plays, it’s easy to see why this would be the case. Don’t forget that there’s a lot of beefcake to be had at the position today. LeBron James (LAL) won’t be a priority when it comes to “studs”, especially given the potential blowout situation in his matchup against the Detroit Pistons tonight, but rostering someone with his ceiling at low ownership is how you win GPPs. Do you remember how I said that Kevin Durant (BKN) is listed as “questionable”? Well, you can put him under the category of “high ceiling/low-owned stud” if he plays tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers.
–Pick on the Brooklyn Nets. I usually like to pick on the Sacramento Kings, however, they aren’t on the main slate so the Brooklyn Nets will do just fine. While the Nets are loaded offensively, they can’t stop a nosebleed when it comes to defense. They have allowed their opponents to score 123, 120, 149, 125 and 128 points in their last five games and rank 26th in the league in overall defensive efficiency. To make matters worse, they’re ranked fourth in overall pace. The bottom line is they can’t stop anyone on defense and their opponents are allowed a lot more possessions than usual to put in work. Tonight’s matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers has an over/under of 236.5 and the 76ers are only favored by -4.5. Not only is this matchup expected to be a high-scoring and competitive, there are some “unknowns” when it comes to who will suit up for Philadelphia tonight. Both Ben Simmons (PHI) and Joel Embiid (PHI) are considered “game time decisions”, but you can pencil them into my tournament rosters with the hopes that they will play tonight. I’ll be adding Tobias Harris (PHI) to my “76ers wish list” as well.