PGA DFS is in full swing! Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your GPP lineups!!
The Course: Sea Island Resort
Russell Henley: $10,100 (+$854)
Last Ownership: 22.1%
SG Ranking: 29th OTT | 1st APP | 28th ATG | 78th PTT
It feels a bit crazy to be playing Russell Henley at this price. However, if we took his name off the list and purely evaluated the following, you’d wonder why he isn’t higher priced.
When looking at this field long term, not a single player has gained more strokes than Russell Henley in their last fifty rounds. In fact, no single player is within seven strokes of his marks. Webb Simpson, who is the highest priced player in the field, has gained nearly ten strokes less than Henley over that timeframe.
Surprisingly, Henley has achieved this without being a particularly good putter. He’s the best tee-to-green player in this field along with the best iron player in this field. The results have followed suit. He’s finished T37 in each of his last eight tournaments including four top-10s.
No excess value.
Jason Kokrak: $8,700 (+$798)
Last Ownership: 19.3%
SG Ranking: 4th OTT | 40th APP | 86th ATG | 24th PTT
Jason Kokrak was flying under the radar coming into his win at the CJ Cup and has been flying under the radar since as he’s coming in at just $8,700 as one of the better drivers and putters in the field this week.
With his unique mix of ability to bomb it relatively straight while having good touch on the greens, Kokrak can keep his head above water at any course, especially with fields that are as weak in off-the-tee play as this one.
Kokrak has made six of his last eight cuts while finishing T17 or better in all of those made cuts. Hence, the recipe is simple for Kokrak this week. Make the cut and let the well above average ball striking and incredibly hot putting take over on the weekend.
We’d prefer more, but even just a made cut at this price tag creates plenty of value given his birdie rate on Tour as of late.
Talor Gooch: $7,900 (+$1,016)
Last Ownership: 1.5%
SG Ranking: 54th OTT | 38th APP | 20th ATG | 25th PTT
Similar to the run up to Kokrak’s win, Talor Gooch has been playing well above his long term results as of late and succeeding in the right areas to get around Sea Island. Gooch’s ball striking has remained about the same as his long term abilities, but has exploded as one of the better short games in golf, especially in this field. Over his last five events, Gooch has gained 23 strokes in short game (chipping plus putting).
In those events, he finished T37 or better four times including 5th at the CJ Cup and 4th at Houston Open. If he continues to gain strokes in all aspects of his game, it’s difficult to see him not finishing in the top-10 of this field.
Sam Burns: $7,700 (+$703)
Last Ownership: 32.4%
SG Ranking: 1st OTT | 52nd APP | 137th ATG | 38th PTT
Sam Burns was owned in nearly a third of the GPP lineups in his last event and may be even higher this week. Burns is going to be popular and seen as one of the biggest misprices of the RSM Classic.
You can see above Burns is the best driver in this field and has the stability of length off-the-tee that provides him quite a bit of a headstart on any field, but especially this one. Burns has made nine of his last eleven events in a stretch where he’s finished T34 or better in all of those made cuts.
Burns has historically struggled on approach, but has made large gains as of late, gaining fourteen strokes over his last ten events. His recent ball striking alone will be enough to get him into the cutline and finishing decently high up in this field.
Sepp Straka: $7,600 (+$551)
Last Ownership: 7.4%
SG Ranking: 30th OTT | 32nd APP | 127th ATG | 20th PTT
A good way to get around these easier courses like Sea Island is to have a consistent putter. Straka provides just that along with some other perks.
Straka has lost strokes putting just three times since the restart including more than six strokes gained in his last event. In addition, Straka can go nuclear with his iron play at times. He’s gained 7.5 strokes on approach in his last five events and twelve strokes in his last ten.
Straka’s ownership likely stays in the single digit this week and is one of the safer picks to make the cut down here in the middle of this price range.
Harold Varner III: $7,400 (+$1,737)
Last Ownership: 10.3%
SG Ranking: 35th OTT | 6th APP | 8th ATG | 96th PTT
HV3 is still one of the highest variance golfers on Tour and remains a solid GPP play, especially in these weaker fields. He ranks 2nd overall, just to Henley, this week in tee-to-green, but has lacked the consistency most great ball strikers possess.
The reason is his highly variant and generally weak putting. Ranking 96th in strokes gained putting in this field, Varner will need to putt well to get around Sea Island and have a higher up finish. It is well within his normal variance to do so, we just don’t see it that often.
There was a stretch in the restart where he lost strokes putting in nine straight events. Shortly after, he gained more than four strokes putting at Safeway. Varner’s incredible accuracy off-the-tee and elite iron play should lead him to a decent finish in a field as such.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
James Hahn: $6,900 (+$896) | Mark Anderson: $6,100 (+$678) | Michael Gligic: $6,400 (+$674) | Cameron Percy: $6,500 (+$659)